ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Nuno]

Going by this, is it fair to assume the weakness will remain enough for Jo to follow through? I'm not sure how Kyle's "development" ( ) impacts steering for Josephine.

[ozonepete]

That is likely why it has been surviving.. shear is 300mb and up. many systems have survived such shear.. its the mid level shear that will take out a system in hours.

I don't really see why some here can't understand this. Many steadliy westward moving TCs in the Atlantic basin have gone hundreds and hundreds of miles under 30 knot southwesterly shear without dissipating or weakening and then have intensified when the shear dropped. Why? Because the shear was all in the upper levels at 300 or 200 mb. If the rest of the environment (warm water, good mid-level water vapor) is favorable, southwesterly shear at that level tilts the storm's core from southwest to northeast but still vents the TC at the top, allowing for the storm to persist. That's exactly what's going on here. If it survives the small amount of mid-level dry air left in front of it (like GCANE has shown) and shear doesn't increase any more, it can survive into a lower shear environment. That's why the NHC is not writing it off as fast as many on here are.

I have a somewhat off topic question. Is it possible that all of this activity in one region could make it so that significant development in the future is less likely? Like could constant low grade TCs, constant rain and cloud cover make it so that this part of the ocean is not conducive for strengthening storms in the future?

Not really likely.
First, the actual area coverage of TCs even in a busy season is very small compared to the size of the ocean area they traverse.
Second, only strong hurricanes remove considerable heat from the ocean layer beneath them, and even then the SSTs and OHC (Ocean Heat Content) below recover within a week or so.

[Aric Dunn]

It is interesting that the extreme upper levels at 200 mb the outflow has really started expanding west in the last couple hours. the actual shear must be at 250mb.

very narrow shear band.

[xironman]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5-1.GIF

Going by this, is it fair to assume the weakness will remain enough for Jo to follow through? I'm not sure how Kyle's "development" ( ) impacts steering for Josephine.

You are giving the the steering currents for a 940mb storm, that is not Jo.

[EquusStorm]

Ah the dichotomy of a struggling Atlantic storm and its environment

At least it's something to watch til the lid comes off

[Nuno]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5-1.GIF

Going by this, is it fair to assume the weakness will remain enough for Jo to follow through? I'm not sure how Kyle's "development" ( ) impacts steering for Josephine.

You are giving the the steering currents for a 940mb storm, that is not Jo.

Whoops, I misread. Is this correct for Jo?

[xironman]

The air to the south may be moistening as well

[xironman]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5-1.GIF

Going by this, is it fair to assume the weakness will remain enough for Jo to follow through? I'm not sure how Kyle's "development" ( ) impacts steering for Josephine.

You are giving the the steering currents for a 940mb storm, that is not Jo.

Whoops, I misread. Is this correct for Jo? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

Much better, btw, don't live link to a site. Save the image to something like imgur, and then use their links, otherwise what you post will be out of date.

[GCANE]

Rebuilding

[xironman]

0z plane set to go. Let's see if it is still closed with all the dry air.

[GCANE]

CIMSS showing the ML Shear dropping

[Jr0d]

Looks a lot better than I expected, this thing keeps fighting. Not going to write her off just yet, like I did this morning.

[xironman]

It is going to deal with a lot of dry air for a while, but there is tongues of moister coming in.

[1900hurricane]

Stationary convection with a system moving forward at 15 kt is not a sign of health.

[xironman]

Center way out in front of the convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Still Closed. convection is a bit to the east.

so now we wait for overnight and see if convection pulses over the center. if not it will slowly open up.

if convection keeps pulsing then it will hang around.

[Kingarabian]

Stationary convection with a system moving forward at 15 kt is not a sign of health.

https://i.imgur.com/EziqaDB.gif

Convection induced by shear is what it looks like. Reminds me of the systems that move close to Hawaii.

[wxman57]

I call BS. This is not a TS. A remnant swirl moving away from any convection and heading into stronger wind shear? Would something like this mess be upgraded to a TS? Ha! Looking for Bones...

"Center" is the red dot, by the way.

[Nimbus]

Josephine was forecast to make it out of the Hebert box as a tropical storm with weakening as it moved NW.
18z models have it opening up GFS a closed circulation again later.
Only the CMC has a 1012 low coming into South Florida in 102 hours.
The cold cloud tops are evacuating the system enough to keep it pulsing but the recon dropsondes are showing some 650 mb shear.
Not quite strong enough to stack.

[floridasun78]

I call BS. This is not a TS. A remnant swirl moving away from any convection and heading into stronger wind shear? Would something like this mess be upgraded to a TS? Ha! Looking for Bones...

"Center" is the red dot, by the way.

http://wxman57.com/images/swirl.JPG

wxman mad that he cannot go on vacation yet he want bone nhc say noooo