ATL: JOSEPHINE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#41 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:20 am

Looks like the global models are going to have to be force-fed the fact that there will be a TS.. lol

Euro is not having any of it... GFS is not doing any better.

Will likely be a stronger farther south system in this case..

You ever try to get a child to eat their vegetables and they throw them at you... screaming nooooooooo ... and you keep putting the spoon and food back in their hand ???


well that is the Euro and GFS right now..

Now eat your TS ... no I dont want too. ... I said eat it !!

NO ...
13 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#42 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:45 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Looks like the global models are going to have to be force-fed the fact that there will be a TS.. lol

Euro is not having any of it... GFS is not doing any better.

Will likely be a stronger farther south system in this case..

You ever try to get a child to eat their vegetables and they throw them at you... screaming nooooooooo ... and you keep putting the spoon and food back in their hand ???


well that is the Euro and GFS right now..

Now eat your TS ... no I dont want too. ... I said eat it !!

NO ...

Gonzalo II
2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2159
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#43 Postby xironman » Wed Aug 12, 2020 8:32 am

The CMC brings it back from the dead on the east coast. Not totally out to lunch if this is a 2005 like season

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8057
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#44 Postby aspen » Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:18 am

xironman wrote:The CMC brings it back from the dead on the east coast. Not totally out to lunch if this is a 2005 like season

https://i.imgur.com/YWXfthx.png

This is the second run in which the CMC has kept Josephine alive to the East Coast. I hope it’s not on to something, because the last thing we need in Connecticut is another tropical storm. Recovery from Isaias has already been problematic enough.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9862
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#45 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:05 pm

Image
Image
18z Guidance... Looping usually indicates some uncertainty in the modeling in the 5+ day range...
2 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#46 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:10 pm

and left the fun begin lol..

GFS and Euro Ensembles turning west and even wsw with some doing loops.. geee didnt see that coming lol
4 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#47 Postby Nimbus » Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:02 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:and left the fun begin lol..

GFS and Euro Ensembles turning west and even wsw with some doing loops.. geee didnt see that coming lol



That would be great, almost better than a TUTT the storm following behind would follow Josephines weakness out to sea! Models will change if the circulation stabilizes at TS strength or better but with the dry air around it wouldn't take much shear to turn this into a naked swirl in 48 hours.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1915
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#48 Postby Kazmit » Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:03 pm

Hurricane Jose-type track anyone? :ggreen:
3 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#49 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 12, 2020 8:32 pm

A loop back to the west after it nears Bermuda is definitely not out of the question as the Bermuda ridge re-strengthens from there on into SE Canada by then. But first it has to survive the shear as it tracks north of the Lesser Antilles.
3 likes   
Top
TheBigO
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 27
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:39 pm
Location: Orlando, FL metro

Re: ATL: JOSEPHINE - Models

#50 Postby TheBigO » Fri Aug 14, 2020 4:17 pm

Have there been no new models for some reason?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 698
Age: 26
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
Location: Mid-Atlantic

Re: ATL: JOSEPHINE - Models

#51 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Aug 15, 2020 5:26 am

Interesting...several models appear to be on board with showing possible regeneration with Josephine down the road. Someone mentioned in the main thread for the storm that we could see an Irene 2005-esque scenario, and honestly that might not be too far off if any of these solutions verify (although granted Irene never actually fully dissipated like Josephine is expected to do).

CMC
Image
ICON
Image
UKMET
Image
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 30.3N 66.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2020 132 30.8N 65.9W 1011 29
0000UTC 21.08.2020 144 31.1N 63.9W 1011 27

HWRF
Image
ACCESS-G
Image
1 likes   
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 101 guests