ATL: JOSEPHINE - Models
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
I wonder if this will be another case of stronger storm turns more north and weaker one continues drifting west?
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:I wonder if this will be another case of stronger storm turns more north and weaker one continues drifting west?
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_95.gif
That's a safe bet almost all the time with AEW's.
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TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:I wonder if this will be another case of stronger storm turns more north and weaker one continues drifting west?
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_95.gif
Well the 18z GEFS Ensembles that develop 95L turn this north into a weakness near 60ºW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
18z Euro is not overly impressed . But looks like a brief TC...
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HuracanMaster
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:I wonder if this will be another case of stronger storm turns more north and weaker one continues drifting west?
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_95.gif
That is often the case.
However, notice that the most recent 00z run shows that the TABD (Deep) is running further SW than the TABS (Shallow). I wouldn't ever rely on these models for specific tracking, but I do look to see how the general shape of a track would look depending on how deep the system is
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
18z GFS mantains longer as TD.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Models now seem onboard to maintain a circulation for at least a few days, including now the UK.
They seem to suggest that it will meet its end somewhere north of PR, as it gets pulled north by what I imagine may become 96L over the next few days off the NC coast
They seem to suggest that it will meet its end somewhere north of PR, as it gets pulled north by what I imagine may become 96L over the next few days off the NC coast
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Intensity guidance not giving 95L much love. Maxing out as a mid level TS
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Latest 0z Euro ensembles are the most enthusiastic for development during the past couple of days but all of them has it dying out by Sunday night.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
06z GFS has a moderate tropical storm before dissipation.
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Craters
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
I posted this in the INVEST 95L Discussion board yesterday, when I probably should have put it here. I found this site a little while ago (don't remember how), and I figured that some of you might not have found it yet:
https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/
It's a more interactive version of a typical spaghetti-plot site, and tracking 95L with it might be good practice before things get a lot more hectic. Kinda like one-stop shopping for a bunch of models.
https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/
It's a more interactive version of a typical spaghetti-plot site, and tracking 95L with it might be good practice before things get a lot more hectic. Kinda like one-stop shopping for a bunch of models.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
The GFS is getting 95l down to 1001mb before it dissipates it a few days later. This is a bit more organized than the previous run:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Models continue pushing back the lifespan of 95L. Many were showing dissipation after the current 72 hour window.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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