ATL: JOSEPHINE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 40.0W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1450 MI...2335 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 40.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A
west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to
begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020

Visible satellite imagery and ASCAT-C data from earlier in the day
have shown that the area of low pressure NHC has been monitoring
over the tropical Atlantic has developed a less-elongated
circulation with a well-defined center. For the most part, deep
convection has persisted with the system since about this time
yesterday, save a brief period of warming cloud tops this morning.
The low now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and
advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven with
30-kt winds, in line with the latest Dvorak Current Intensity
numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving westward, or 280/14 kt, to the south of a
large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central Atlantic.
This pattern is expected to evolve rather quickly, with a break
developing in the ridge over the central Atlantic by 48 hours.
This change should allow the depression to begin making more
poleward progress, moving west-northwestward from 36 hours until
the end of the forecast period. The track models are in good
agreement on this scenario, as well as the system's forward speed,
and bring the center of the cyclone near or just to the north of
the northern Leeward Islands in 4-5 days. This first NHC forecast
lies just to the north of the multi-model consensus cluster
through day 3, out of respect for the northern-lying ECMWF model,
and then is close to HCCA on days 4 and 5.

Conventional satellite imagery and Saharan Air Layer analyses
suggest that the center of the depression is being shielded from
much drier air to its north and west. However, as has been the
case for a few days, at least 15 kt of easterly shear has been
pushing deep convection to the western side of the circulation.
This shear is expected to decrease over the next day or two, which
should allow for gradual strengthening to begin by 36 hours, and a
peak in the cyclone's intensity should occur in about 3 days. For
this period, the NHC intensity forecast is a little above HCCA and
the IVCN intensity consensus. After that time, westerly or
southwesterly shear is forecast to develop and increase to 20-30 kt
by days 4 and 5, which is likely to induce significant weakening.
In fact, it's notable that the conditions become hostile enough that
the global models are showing the system opening up into a trough
near the northern Leeward Islands by day 5, which is a plausible
alternate scenario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 11.7N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 12.0N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 12.4N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 13.0N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 13.9N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 15.1N 51.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 16.4N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 18.5N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 21.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 41.5W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 41.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A
west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to
begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020

After weakening in the early evening hours, deep convection has
returned to the western semicircle of the tropical cyclone. While
this is quite a strong burst, it appears that the convective
pattern is indicative of the shear it is encountering, rather than
any strengthening. This is confirmed by ASCAT-B data from a few
hours ago, which supported maintaining an initial wind speed of 30
kt.

By this time tomorrow, the depression is forecast to become a
tropical storm due to decreasing vertical wind shear, and this
environmental change should also keep some of the surrounding
mid-level dry air from mixing near the center. Gradually warming
SSTs and relatively low shear conditions suggest further
intensification through about 2-3 days. Thereafter, increasing
southwesterly shear while the small cyclone moves through fairly dry
air aloft is forecast to cause a weakening trend, and it wouldn't
be surprising if the cyclone even degenerates to a trough by day 5
as it traverses the hostile environment. The new NHC wind speed
prediction is near but slightly higher than the previous advisory
through 60h, similar afterwards, and lies near the NOAA
corrected-consensus mean.

The depression continues moving westward, or 280/12 kt, to the
south of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central
Atlantic. A break developing in the ridge should steer the
depression more west-northwestward from 36 hours until the end of
the forecast period. For a second advisory, the track models are in
remarkably good agreement, and the forecast is near or northeast of
the model consensus. The HWRF solution that takes the cyclone near
the Leeward Islands is considering less likely at this time, hence
the official forecast is shaded toward the other model solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 12.0N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 12.3N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 12.8N 45.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 42.9W
ABOUT 1405 MI...2265 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 42.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. A motion
toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is forecast to
begin tonight and continue through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

After an earlier burst of deep convection near the center and in
the western semicircle of the circulation, overall thunderstorm
activity has decreased somewhat. This is likely due to the
entrainment of mid-/upper-level dry air as noted in GOES-16
high-resolution mid- and upper-level water vapor imagery, in
conjunction with some modest southeasterly vertical wind shear.
The latest subjective and objective Dvorak satellite
classifications from TAFB/SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT of 30 kt and 33 kt,
respectively, support maintaining an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The depression continues moving a little north of due west, or
280/13 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through
tonight due to easterly flow on the south side of a strong
subtropical ridge situated to the north of the cyclone. By 24 h, all
of the global models are in decent agreement that a slight weakness
will develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn more
toward the west-northwest and then continue that motion through the
end of the forecast period. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly
packed about the previous forecast track, so no significant track
changes were made.

The aforementioned unfavorable conditions of dry air entrainment
and southeasterly shear are expected to give way to more conducive
environmental conditions by 24 h when the cyclone will begin to move
underneath the center of a synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone.
This will result in the shear decreasing to near zero, along with a
pronounced improvement in the upper-level outflow pattern. The much
lower shear conditions should also reduce the amount of dry air
entrainment, while allowing for some moistening of the surrounding
environment to occur. These more favorable conditions are expected
to persist through at least the 60-h period, and thus slow but
steady strengthening is forecast during that time. By 72 h and
beyond, the global models and regional models show the system
moving out from underneath the positive influence of the
upper-level anticyclone, encountering moderate southerly to
southwesterly vertical wind shear, which is expected to induce
gradual weakening. It should be noted that during the 48-60 h
period when the shear will be the lowest and sea-surface
temperatures will be near 28.5C, there is a narrow window of
opportunity where the intensity could peak higher than what is
currently indicated. The new NHC intensity forecast is very similar
to the previous advisory, and is slightly higher than the
consensus intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA due to
anticipation of the very favorable low-shear conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 12.2N 42.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 12.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 13.2N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 14.0N 49.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 15.1N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 16.3N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 20.1N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 22.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

...DEPRESSION REMAINS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 44.2W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 44.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected tonight, with
this motion continuing through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is a little better
organized than 24 h ago, with a ragged central convective feature
and a curved convective band in the northwestern semicircle.
However, recent scatterometer data show this has not yet resulted
in strengthening, with 25-30 kt winds occuring to the north of the
center. Based on the scatterometer, the initial intensity remains
30 kt.

The initial motion remains a little north of due west, or
280/13 kt. There is little change to the forecast philosophy or
the forecast track since the last advisory. A westward motion is
expected to continue through tonight due to easterly flow on the
south side of a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of
the cyclone. After that, the global models forecast a slight
weakness to develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn
west-northwestward, with that motion continuing through the end of
the forecast period. The new NHC forecast is just to the left of
the various consensus models.

The southeasterly shear that has so far prevented intensification
should diminish in the next 12 h or so, which should allow the
cyclone to become a tropical storm. The system should then remain
in light to moderate shear through about 48 h, and the intensity
forecast calls for a peak intensity of 50 kt during that time.
Later in the forecast period, moderate to strong southwesterly
shear should develop over the cyclone due to an upper-level trough
over the southwestern Atlantic. This shear should cause the system
to weaken, and several of the global models forecast it to
degenerate to a tropical wave before 120 h. The new intensity
forecast will not call for that quick of a demise, but will show
weakening due to the shear after 72 h. The new forecast, which has
only minor changes from the previous forecast, is near the upper
edge of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 12.4N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 12.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 18.2N 58.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 20.5N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 23.5N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

...DEPRESSION NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 45.7W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 45.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected
tonight, with this motion continuing through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows some changes in the
convection associated with Tropical Depression Eleven, as the
showers and thunderstorms are now occuring more in curved bands and
less in sheared bursts. This is likely due to the southeasterly
shear which has been affecting the depression finally letting up.
However, this change has not caused the satellite intensity
estimates to change significantly since the last advisory, so the
initial intensity is again 30 kt.

The initial motion remains a little north of due west, or
280/13 kt. There is almost no change to the forecast philosophy and
little change to the forecast track since the last advisory. A
westward motion is expected to continue for another 6-12 h due to
easterly flow on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge
situated to the north of the cyclone. After that, the global
models forecast a slight weakness to develop within the ridge,
allowing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and continue that
motion through 96 h. Between 96-120 h, the western end of the
ridge is forecast to weaken more, which should cause a turn toward
the northwest. The new NHC forecast track remains just to the left
of the various consensus models.

The cyclone should be in an environment of light to moderate shear
through the next 48 h or so. The intensity forecast again calls
for a peak intensity of 50 kt during this time, which is at the
high end of the intensity guidance. After 60 h, the cyclone is
expected to encounter moderate to strong southwesterly shear
associated with a large upper-level trough over the southwestern
Atlantic. This should cause at least steady weakening, and several
of the global models continue to forecast the cyclone to degenerate
to a tropical wave before 120 h. The new intensity forecast again
expects the system to last longer than the global models, but still
shows weakening due to the shear after 72 h. The new forecast has
only minor changes from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 12.7N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 13.0N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 14.0N 49.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 15.2N 52.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 16.6N 54.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 17.8N 57.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 19.1N 59.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 21.5N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 24.5N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

...STRUGGLING DEPRESSION HEADING WESTWARD...
...STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 47.1W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 47.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
toward the west-northwest is forecast later tonight and this
motion is forecast to continue during the next few days followed by
a turn toward the northwest early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on
Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts




Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

Conventional satellite imagery and a fortuitous ASCAT-B
scatterometer overpass indicate that the center of circulation
is a little farther south than previously estimated and remains
well to the southeast of the deep convective canopy. The latest
UW-CIMSS shear analysis confirms modest east-southeasterly shear
impinging on the cloud pattern. A compromise of the satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the aforementioned
scatterometer pass retains the initial intensity at 30 kt.

Large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance
still show the shear abating soon which should result in gradual
strengthening with a peak intensity of 50 kt in 2 days. After that
time, the cyclone is forecast to encounter moderate to strong
southwesterly shear associated with a deep-layer trough stretching
over the southwestern Atlantic. This change in the upper wind
pattern should induce steady weakening. A number of the global
models indicate that the cyclone will become a remnant low by day 4
and open up into a trough by day 5 which is certainly possible.
The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory but indicates
a more expeditious weakening trend beyond the 48 hour period in
deference to the global model solution.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/13 kt, within
the low to mid-tropospheric easterly flow produced by a subtropical
ridge anchored to the north of the depression. The song remains
the same...there is virtually no change to the forecast philosophy
and only a slight shift to the left of the previous track forecast
was made in response to the southward initial position adjustment.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 12.5N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 13.0N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 14.2N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 17.0N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 18.3N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 19.7N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 22.5N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 25.6N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020

...DEPRESSION IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME BUT STILL EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 47.9W
ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 47.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this
weekend or early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020

Proxy-visible GOES-16 satellite imagery and data from an earlier
scatterometer pass indicated that the low-level center of the
depression is displaced to the south of the main area of deep
convection. Recently, however, some new convection is forming
closer to the estimated center which suggests some re-organization
of the system may be taking place. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and
SAB are only 1.0, but the current intensity estimates from these
agencies still support 30 kt. Since the shear is not expected to
increase significantly for the next day or so, strengthening is
still forecast in the short term. Beginning around 2-3 days,
southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level trough over
the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to weaken. The
official intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus.

The latest center fixes show that the cyclone is moving
west-northwestward, or around 285/13 kt. There has been little
change to the track forecast or reasoning from the previous
advisory. The system should continue to move west-northwestward on
the south side of the subtropical ridge into the weekend. By day 3
a turn toward the northwest is likely in response to weakness in
the ridge followed by a turn toward the north-northwest as
the cyclone moves through this weakness late in the period. The
official track forecast is close to the latest NOAA corrected model
consensus, or HCCA, prediction and not much different from the
previous official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 12.9N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 13.8N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 14.9N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 16.2N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 18.8N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 23.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 26.0N 68.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 49.2W
ABOUT 975 MI...1565 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine
was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 49.2 West. Josephine
is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days
followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early
next week.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020

A just-received ASCAT overpass showed an area of 35-40 kt winds
about 70 n mi north of the center of Tropical Depression Eleven,
and based on this the cyclone is being upgraded to Tropical Storm
Josephine with an initial intensity of 40 kt. Satellite imagery
shows that the convective pattern associated with Josephine has
become a little better organized since the last advisory, with a
ragged central convective feature and a weak band in the northern
semicircle.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 295/13 kt.
Josephine should continue this motion for the next several days as
it moves toward a weakness in the western portion of the Atlantic
subtropical ridge. The global models forecast the western end of
the ridge to weaken even more after 72-96 h, which should cause
the cyclone, or what is left of it by that time, to turn
northwestward. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the
new forecast track lies a little to the right of the previous track
and a little to the left of the consensus models.

Some additional strengthening appears likely during the next 24-
36 h as Josephine moves through an environment of light vertical
wind shear. After that, the cyclone is expected to encounter
moderate to strong southwesterly shear as it approaches an
upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic, which should
cause at least some weakening. The new intensity forecast is
adjusted upward for the first 72 h based on the current intensity.
After 72 h, it shows weakening similar to the previous forecast, but
not as drastic as the global models that show the storm degenerating
to a tropical wave before 120 h.

Josephine is the earliest tenth tropical storm of record in the
Atlantic, with the next earliest tenth storm being Tropical Storm
Jose on August 22, 2005.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 13.7N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 14.5N 51.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 15.8N 53.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 17.1N 56.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 18.5N 58.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 19.9N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 21.3N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 24.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 27.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020

...JOSEPHINE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 50.6W
ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 50.6 West. Josephine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days
followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early
next week. On the forecast track the center of Josephine is
expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected through Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020

There has been little change in the organization of Josephine since
the last advisory. The low-level center is located near the
southern edge of the main convective mass, and there is some weak
outer banding in the northern semicircle. The initial intensity is
held at 40 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus.
Some arc clouds west of the main convective mass suggest that dry
air is entraining into the system. However, where this dry air is
coming from is not readily apparent in satellite imagery or model
analyses.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 295/14 kt.
Josephine should continue this motion for the next 3-4 days as
it moves toward a weakness in the western portion of the Atlantic
subtropical ridge. The global models forecast the western end of
the ridge to weaken even more by the end of the forecast period,
which should cause the cyclone, or what is left of it by that time,
to turn northwestward. The track guidance remains tightly
clustered, and the new forecast track lies a little to the right of
the previous track trough 48 h and close to the previous track
thereafter. On the forecast track, Josephine should pass far enough
to the northeast of the Leeward Islands to prevent major impacts.
However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its
progress until the storm has gone by.

Josephine has about 36 h to strengthen before it encounters
significant southwesterly shear. The new intensity forecast is
unchanged in showing the storm strengthening to a peak intensity
of 50 kt in 24-36 h. After that, some minor tweaks were made to
the intensity during the expected shear-induced weakening. The new
forecast intensity follows the overall trend of the intensity
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 14.5N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.5N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.9N 55.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 18.3N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 19.6N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 20.9N 62.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 22.0N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 25.0N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 28.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020

...JOSEPHINE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 52.2W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine
was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 52.2 West. Josephine
is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days
followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early
next week. On the forecast track the center of Josephine is
expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected through Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020

Enhanced infrared GOES 16 imagery and a recent ASCAT-A overpass
indicated that the center of circulation is still located to
the south of a rather shapeless deep convective mass. Recent
images show a small burst developing just to the west of the center,
but the associated cloud tops are already warming. Based on the
overall cloud pattern, light southerly shear and a dry, relatively
stable surrounding environment continue to hamper significant
development. There were no changes to the satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is once
again held at a possibly generous 40 kt.

Josephine's relatively small window of opportunity for further
strengthening is within the next 18 to 24 hours. The forecast
still shows a peak intensity of 50 kt at the time and is above all
of the skilled guidance. After which, strong southwesterly shear
produced by a northeast to southwest oriented deep-layer
mid-Atlantic trough is expected to induce gradual weakening. This
inhibiting upper wind pattern is forecast to affect the cyclone
through day 5. The NHC forecast through 60 hours is based on the
better performing IVCN consensus which consists of the Decay SHIPS,
LGEM and the hurricane models. Beyond mid-period, the forecast is
basically a blend of the IVCN and the global models which now shows
Josephine degenerating into a remnant low at day 5.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/15
kt within the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high situated
to the northeast of Josephine. Weakening of the western portion of
the ridge should cause Josephine to turn northwestward in 3 days,
followed by a turn generally northward at day 4 in response to a
major shortwave trough approaching the east coast of the U.S. and
the western Atlantic. The official forecast is a little faster than
the previous one through 5 days and is once again close to the HFIP
Corrected Consensus model.

Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However,
interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until
the storm has passed north of that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 14.8N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 15.8N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 18.8N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 20.0N 62.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 21.3N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 22.8N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 26.0N 67.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 29.5N 66.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020

...JOSEPHINE CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 53.3W
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 53.3 West. Josephine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days
followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early
next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is
expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020

As has been the case for the last couple of days, the center of the
tropical storm is displaced to the south of the main area of deep
convection. Some new convective cells have been forming nearer to
the estimated center, but the overall cloud pattern is quite
ragged-looking at this time. ASCAT data from a few hours ago
indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, which is consistent with
the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. NOAA data buoy 41040
confirmed that the system still has a closed circulation since it
reported light westerly winds while the center of Josephine passed
to its north. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the storm later today. Josephine is
beginning to move into an environment of increasing vertical shear
associated with a large upper-tropospheric trough over the western
Atlantic. Therefore, the window of opportunity for strengthening
is closing soon. The official intensity forecast allows for some
intensification during the next 24 hours before the upper-level
winds become prohibitively strong. However, the NHC forecast is
now above most of the model intensity guidance through 72 hours.

The storm continues its west-northwestward motion and is moving at
about 300/15 kt. Josephine should continue this general motion
as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge in 48 hours or
so. Then, the cyclone should turn northward and move through the
weakness in 3-4 days. Late in the forecast period, Josephine or
its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward while it
approaches the higher-latitude westerlies. The official track
forecast is essentially the same as the previous one, and also lies
close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus.

Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However,
interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until
the storm has passed north of that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 53.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.5N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 18.0N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 19.1N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 21.6N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 23.1N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 26.0N 67.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOSEPHINE
THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 54.7W
ABOUT 575 MI...920 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine
was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 54.7 West. Josephine
is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days
followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early
next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is
expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. After that
time, Josephine is expected to encounter upper-level winds that will
not be conducive for strengthening. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Josephine this
afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfalls of
1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020

Morning visible satellite imagery indicates that the center of
Josephine is located to the south or southwest of the strongest area
of convection, likely due to the onset of southwesterly vertical
wind shear. A just-received scatterometer pass supports an initial
intensity of 35 kt, but also suggests the possibility that the
circulation is longer closed. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Josephine this afternoon to
provide more information on the intensity and whether a closed
circulation still exists.

The initial motion continues west-northwestward or 295/14 kt.
Josephine should continue this general motion as it approaches a
weakness in the subtropical ridge in 48-60 h. Then, the cyclone
should turn northward and move through the weakness in 72-96 h.
Late in the forecast period, Josephine or its remnants are expected
to turn north-northeastward along the southern edge of the
higher-latitude westerlies. The track guidance has not changed
significantly since the previous advisory, and the new NHC forecast
track is very similar to the previous forecast.

Southwesterly to westerly shear should markedly increase after
12-18 h due mainly to upper-level troughing over the southwestern
Atlantic. The new intensity forecast leaves open the possibility of
a little strengthening during the next 12 h, followed by weakening
due to the shear. The intensity forecast follows the previous
forecast showing the system decaying to a remnant low by 120 h.
However, an alternative scenario, supported by several of the global
models, is that the cyclone decays to a tropical wave well before
that time.

Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However,
interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until
the storm has passed north of that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 16.1N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 17.1N 56.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 18.4N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 20.9N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 22.5N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 24.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 30.6N 65.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CENTER OF JOSEPHINE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 56.1W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 56.1 West. Josephine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days
followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early
next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is
expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the
weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible tonight.
After that, Josephine is expected to weaken over the weekend as it
encounters unfavorable upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of
1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that the
circulation of Josephine was still closed, and that the center was
a little farther to the north than previously thought - possibly
due to reformation close to a strong convective burst. The
aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 1004 mb, and the combination
of flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of
35 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that Josephine is encountering
increasing westerly shear, with cirrus clouds west of the storm
blowing into the cyclone.

Aside from the nudge to the north, the initial motion is generally
west-northwestward or 300/14 kt. There is again no change to the
track forecast philosophy. Josephine should continue a west-
northwestward motion as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical
ridge in 48-60 h. Then, the cyclone should gradually turn
northward and move through the weakness in 72-96 h. Late in the
forecast period, Josephine or its remnants are expected to turn
north-northeastward along the southern edge of the mid-latitude
westerlies. Portions of the forecast track have been adjusted
northward based mainly on the initial position, and the new
forecast track lies close to the various consensus models.

The increasing shear means that Josephine is just about out of time
to intensify. The intensity forecast calls for a little
strengthening tonight in case a convective burst causes some spin
up. After that, the cyclone should weaken, with the new forecast
showing it becoming a depression in 48 h and a remnant low by 96
hr. The global models continue to forecast a faster weakening, and
there is still the alternative scenario that Josephine could decay
to a tropical wave before 96 h.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However,
interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the
storm has passed north of that area.

2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by
to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto
Rico through Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 17.8N 56.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 18.6N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 19.9N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 21.1N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 22.5N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 24.1N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 25.7N 67.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 28.6N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z 32.1N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020

...SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOW JOSEPHINE IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 57.4W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine
was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 57.4 West. Josephine
is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days
followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early
next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is
expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the
weekend.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is expected through Saturday. After that, Josephine is
expected to weaken as it encounters unfavorable upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of
1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020

Josephine continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and
to the northeast of its center, however, there is little evidence
of any banding features. A fortuitous ASCAT-A overpass has
revealed peak winds of 35-40 kt over the northern semicircle of the
storm, and the scatterometer ambiguities along with the earlier
reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the circulation is still
closed. Based on the scatterometer data, the initial wind speed
has been set at 40 kt.

The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the
previous forecast. The moderate to strong southwesterly vertical
wind shear that is affecting the cyclone is forecast to increase
over the weekend and reach values of around 30 kt on Sunday. This is
expected to result in gradual weakening by the latter portion of the
weekend, and Josephine is predicted to weaken to a tropical
depression in about 48 hours, and become a remnant low in 3-4 days.
A plausible alternate scenario that is suggested by some of the
global models is for the circulation to open up into a trough of
low pressure, resulting in dissipation of the tropical cyclone
within the next few days.

The timely ASCAT data was very helpful in determining Josephine's
center location. Based on that and the earlier aircraft fixes,
the cyclone continues to move west-northwestward or 300/14 kt. A
subtropical ridge to the north of Josephine should steer the cyclone
west-northwestward during the next 24-48 hours. After that time,
Josephine should turn northwestward, and then northward as a
weakness develops in the ridge over the western Atlantic. By late
in the period, Josephine or its remnants are expected to turn
north-northeastward as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies. The latest official forecast is near the middle of the
tightly clustered dynamical track models, and is very similar to the
previous NHC advisory.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However,
interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the
storm has passed north of that area.

2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by
to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto
Rico through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 18.3N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 19.2N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 20.4N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 21.7N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 23.2N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 24.7N 67.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 26.4N 67.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 29.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z 33.0N 64.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
JOSEPHINE LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 58.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 58.4 West. Josephine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two
followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early
next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is
expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through today. After that,
Josephine is expected to weaken as it encounters unfavorable
upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of
1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020

Josephine continues to produce disorganized bursts of deep
convection to the north and northeast of the estimated center,
with little evidence of any banding features. In spite of the
shear, the storm is still producing high-level outflow into the
strong upper-level winds. The current intensity estimate of 40 kt
is based on continuity from the previous scatterometer-based
observations, and an ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm
later this morning, and this should provide a good intensity
estimate. Since vertical shear associated with a large
upper-level trough over the western Atlantic is forecast to become
quite strong over the next few days, a weakening trend is likely to
commence in a day or so. The official forecast is similar to the
previous NHC prediction. It is also possible that the system will
degenerate into an open wave within the next couple of days, as
shown by the global models.

It is difficult to locate the center at this time, but it is
believed to be situated near the southwest edge of the main area of
deep convection. This leads to a somewhat uncertain initial
motion estimate of 300/13 kt. Josephine or its remnants are likely
to continue to move west-northwestward to the south and southwest
of a subtropical high pressure area, and then to turn northwest,
north, and north-northeast along the periphery of the high. The
official track forecast remains close to the NOAA corrected model
consensus prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However,
interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the
storm has passed north of that area.

2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by
to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto
Rico through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 18.9N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 19.6N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 20.7N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 22.0N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 23.4N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 24.9N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 26.5N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 29.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0600Z 33.0N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020

...CENTER OF JOSEPHINE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 60.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 60.2 West. Josephine
is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two
followed by a turn toward the northwest early next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the
northeast of the Leeward Islands today and tonight.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
today. After that, Josephine is expected to weaken as it
encounters unfavorable upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of
1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020

Josephine has a sheared cloud pattern in satellite imagery this
morning, with the low-level center located near the western edge of
the main convective area. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft investigating the storm reported flight-level winds as
high as 47 kt at 925 mb, along with surface wind estimates from the
Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer of 35-40 kt. Based on these
data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The aircraft also
reported that, while the area of westerly winds south of the center
was small, the circulation is still closed and that the central
pressure was near 1008 mb.

The storm has moved a little to the left since the last advisory,
with the motion now west-northwestward or 290/14 kt. Other than
that, there is little change in the forecast track or the forecast
track philosophy. During the next 2-3 days, Josephine or its
remnants are likely to continue to move west-northwestward to the
south and southwest of a subtropical high pressure area. After
that, the system is forecast to re-curve to the north and
north-northeast through a break in the western portion of the high.
The new NHC forecast lies to the the center of the tightly-
clustered guidance and near the various consensus models.

Josephine is expected to remain in an environment of moderate to
strong westerly shear for at least the next 48-60 h. This should
cause the system to weaken, with the new intensity forecast now
calling for Josephine to weaken to a depression between 36-48 h and
degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h. Several global models forecast
the cyclone to degenerate to a tropical wave before 72 h, and this
remains a viable alternative forecast scenario, especially
considering how small the closed circulation is. There is a chance
that Josephine or its remnants could encounter a less hostile
environment after 72 h. However, it is unclear at this time whether
there will be enough left of the system to take advantage of that.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands today and tonight to prevent major impacts. However,
interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the
storm has passed north of that area.

2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by
to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto
Rico through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 19.1N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 19.8N 61.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 21.0N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 22.3N 66.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 23.8N 67.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 25.2N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 26.7N 69.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z 32.5N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020

...CENTER OF JOSEPHINE CONTINUING TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 61.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 61.6 West. Josephine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two,
followed by a turn toward the northwest and north early next week.
On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass
to the northeast and north of the Leeward Islands today through
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Josephine is now in an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and
weakening is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of
1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020

Josephine continues to feel the effects of westerly shear, and the
low cloud swirl denoting the center is partly exposed at the western
edge of the convection. Satellite intensity estimates have not
changed significantly since the earlier recon flight, so the initial
intensity remains 40 kt. Animation of satellite imagery suggests
that the low-level circulation is at best barely closed, but there
is insufficient evidence right now to justify a downgrade to a
tropical wave. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system near 0000Z.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/15 kt. It sounds
like a broken record, but there is little change to either the
forecast guidance or the forecast track since the last advisory. For
the next 36-48 h, Josephine or its remnants are likely to continue
to move west-northwestward on the southwest side of the subtropical
ridge. After that, the system is forecast to recurve to the north
and north-northeast through a break in the western portion of the
ridge. As before, the new NHC forecast lies near the the center of
the tightly-clustered guidance and near the various consensus
models.

Josephine is expected to remain in an environment of moderate to
strong westerly shear for at least the next 48-60 h which should
cause the system to weaken. The intensity forecast, which assumes
some sort of closed circulation will last for 5 days, now calls for
the system to weaken to a depression between 24-36 h and become a
remnant low by 60 h. An alternative scenario is that the system
degenerates to a tropical wave, which could occur at almost any time
given the state of the circulation. There is a chance that
Josephine or its remnants could encounter a less hostile environment
after 72 h. However, it remains unclear at this time whether there
will be enough left of the system to take advantage of those
favorable conditions.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Josephine is passing far enough to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should
continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north
of that area.

2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by
to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto
Rico through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 20.0N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 20.8N 63.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 22.1N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 23.4N 67.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 24.9N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 26.3N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z 28.0N 69.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z 30.5N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating
Josephine this evening manages to find a barely close low-level
circulation center that was displaced about 90 nmi to the west of
the edge of the southernmost burst of deep convection. Maximum
flight-level and surface were likely missed since the aircraft did
not fly through the strongest convection. Thus, the intensity is
being maintained at 40 kt based on continuity and a blend of
subjective and objective satellite classifications.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or an uncertain 300/13 kt.
Due to Josephine's severely sheared state, the system could open up
into a sharp tropical wave at any time during the next 36 hours,
which complicates determining a forecast track. For now, it will be
assumed that there will be some identifiable low-level vorticity
feature that will serve as a proxy center for Josephine or its
remnants, which are forecast to continue to move west-northwestward
along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge.
Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to recurve to the north and
north-northeast through a break in the ridge that is forecast to
develop southwest of Bermuda in 48 hours or so, with at least the
remnants passing near Bermuda in about 120 hours. The NHC official
forecast track lies close to the previous advisory track and the
tightly-clustered simple- and corrected-consensus models.

Josephine is expected to remain in an environment of moderate to
strong westerly shear for at least the next 48-60 h, followed by
sharply decreasing shear conditions thereafter. For the next two
days or so, however, Josephine is forecast to weaken owing to the
strong shear conditions and surrounding dry mid-level air, with the
possibility of the tropical storm degenerating into an open wave at
any time. If the remnant vorticity can manage to remain intact
through a deep enough layer of the troposphere, then some
regeneration could occur in the 72-120 hour time when the vertical
shear/mid-level moisture are forecast to decrease/increase
significantly. However, it still remains unclear at this time
whether there will be enough remnant circulation to take advantage
of those more favorable conditions.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Josephine is passing far enough to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should
continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north
of that area.

2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by
to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto
Rico through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 20.1N 62.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 21.0N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 22.3N 66.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 23.7N 67.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 25.1N 68.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 27.1N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z 29.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z 30.6N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0000Z 32.8N 64.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020

Josephine's low-level center has raced out over 100 n mi to the
west of a remnant area of deep convection, which itself is
shrinking and becoming more disorganized. Due to the loss of
organization, it is assumed that Josephine's maximum winds have
decreased, and the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, which matches
the latest Current Intensity estimates. Analyses from the UW-CIMSS
indicate that Josephine is now being pounded by about 35 kt of
southwesterly shear, and a zone of even higher shear exists to the
northwest of the cyclone. Therefore, continued weakening is
expected, and Josephine could lose all of its organized deep
convection and become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner.
The NHC forecast holds a remnant low after 36 hours until the end
of the forecast period, but it is entirely possible that the
hostile conditions will cause Josephine to dissipate at any time,
with the circulation opening up into a trough.

The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt,
although this heading is a bit to the left of the previous motion,
suggesting even further that Josephine is becoming a shallower
cyclone steered by lower-level winds. Still, there should be
enough low- to mid-level troughing moving off the U.S. east coast
later today and on Monday to cause Josephine, or its remnants, to
recurve toward the north and northeast by day 5. The track
guidance agrees on this scenario, although the newest official
forecast is a little slower and to the right of the previous
prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Josephine is passing far enough to the north of the Leeward
Islands to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should
continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north
of that area.

2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by
to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto
Rico through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 20.3N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 21.1N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 22.4N 67.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 23.8N 68.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 25.4N 69.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1800Z 27.0N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z 28.2N 68.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Josephine Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020

Strong vertical wind shear has continued to take a toll on
Josephine, with the exposed center continuing to race well
ahead of the primary convective mass. A new burst of convection
has developed a little closer to the center within the past couple
of hours, but with the continued loss of organization the initial
wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. With strong shear forecast
to prevail over the cyclone during the next few days, continued
weakening is expected and Josephine will likely become a remnant
low within 24 hours or dissipate by opening into a trough of low
pressure. Although the shear could lessen somewhat in a few days,
it appears that there will not be much left of the system to take
advantage of those conditions. As a result, the new NHC forecast
calls for the dissipation of the remnant low by 96 hours.

Josephine jogged a bit westward overnight, but the longer term
motion is 285/11 kt. The system is forecast to turn northwestward
over the next 24-36 hours as the ridge over the western Atlantic
weakens due to an approaching trough of low pressure. As the low-
to mid-level trough moves offshore of the southeastern United
States, this should cause Josephine or it remnants to turn
northward on Tuesday. The updated track forecast is a little to the
left of the previous advisory, primarily to more southward and
westward initial position, however, it still lies near the middle
of the track guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 20.4N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 21.3N 66.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 22.5N 67.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z 23.9N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 25.5N 69.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z 26.8N 69.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 28.2N 68.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown