BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kyle Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020
...TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM LAND DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 71.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kyle was
located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 71.7 West. Kyle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A continued
east-northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible tonight and tomorrow. Kyle is
forecast to become post-tropical by late Sunday or early Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Earlier this afternoon, one-minute visible satellite imagery
clearly showed that an area of low pressure off the mid-Atlantic
coast of the U.S. had developed a well defined center. Banding
convection wraps from the northeast to the southeast quadrant of
the cyclone, and a combination of surface obs, ship reports, and
buoy data all indicate that the system is not frontal. Although its
organization is limited by strong southwesterly upper-level winds,
the convection appears to be sufficiently well organized to
classify the system as a tropical cyclone. Earlier ASCAT data
indicated that the maximum winds were between 30 and 35 kt, so the
initial intensity is set at 35 kt, assuming some slight
undersampling may have occurred. Kyle is the earliest 11th named
storm on record for the Atlantic basin. The previous record was
Katrina, which became a tropical storm on August 24, 2005.
Kyle is moving quickly east-northeastward along the northern portion
of the Gulf Stream, and its future as a tropical cyclone is likely
tied to how long it remains over those warm waters. A mid-latitude
trough will continue to steer the system generally
east-northeastward for the next few days, with some increase in
forward speed. This will cause the storm to move quickly
northeastward away from the U.S. coast and well south of the
Canadian Maritimes.
As long as the tropical cyclone remains over warm waters, some
strengthening is possible, and this is reflected in all of the
intensity guidance. That said, strong upper-level winds will likely
keep the system sufficiently sheared to prevent significant tropical
strengthening. Extratropical transition is forecast to begin within
48 h, and should be complete by 60 h. Sometime around or just after
72 h, the low is forecast to either merge with or be absorbed by a
larger extratropical low pressure system over the North Atlantic.
The NHC intensity forecast is based on the multi-model consensus,
with a little extra weight given to the global models for the
extratropical phase.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 37.7N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 38.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 40.0N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 41.4N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 42.4N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 43.1N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1800Z 43.1N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Kyle Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020
...TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM LAND DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 71.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kyle was
located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 71.7 West. Kyle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A continued
east-northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible tonight and tomorrow. Kyle is
forecast to become post-tropical by late Sunday or early Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Earlier this afternoon, one-minute visible satellite imagery
clearly showed that an area of low pressure off the mid-Atlantic
coast of the U.S. had developed a well defined center. Banding
convection wraps from the northeast to the southeast quadrant of
the cyclone, and a combination of surface obs, ship reports, and
buoy data all indicate that the system is not frontal. Although its
organization is limited by strong southwesterly upper-level winds,
the convection appears to be sufficiently well organized to
classify the system as a tropical cyclone. Earlier ASCAT data
indicated that the maximum winds were between 30 and 35 kt, so the
initial intensity is set at 35 kt, assuming some slight
undersampling may have occurred. Kyle is the earliest 11th named
storm on record for the Atlantic basin. The previous record was
Katrina, which became a tropical storm on August 24, 2005.
Kyle is moving quickly east-northeastward along the northern portion
of the Gulf Stream, and its future as a tropical cyclone is likely
tied to how long it remains over those warm waters. A mid-latitude
trough will continue to steer the system generally
east-northeastward for the next few days, with some increase in
forward speed. This will cause the storm to move quickly
northeastward away from the U.S. coast and well south of the
Canadian Maritimes.
As long as the tropical cyclone remains over warm waters, some
strengthening is possible, and this is reflected in all of the
intensity guidance. That said, strong upper-level winds will likely
keep the system sufficiently sheared to prevent significant tropical
strengthening. Extratropical transition is forecast to begin within
48 h, and should be complete by 60 h. Sometime around or just after
72 h, the low is forecast to either merge with or be absorbed by a
larger extratropical low pressure system over the North Atlantic.
The NHC intensity forecast is based on the multi-model consensus,
with a little extra weight given to the global models for the
extratropical phase.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 37.7N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 38.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 40.0N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 41.4N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 42.4N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 43.1N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1800Z 43.1N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky