EPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

I feel like this one is going to be downgraded post season. I could be wrong tho.

Downgraded??

[supercane4867]

I feel like this one is going to be downgraded post season. I could be wrong tho.

Downgraded??

Subjective Dvorak never reached T6.0 I believe. 115kt-CAT4 was based solely on a CIMSS SATCON fix.

[gatorcane]

Wow so impressive:

[Kingarabian]

I feel like this one is going to be downgraded post season. I could be wrong tho.

Downgraded??

Subjective Dvorak never reached T6.0 I believe. 115kt-CAT4 was based solely on a CIMSS SATCON fix.

ADT reached 6.0-6.1

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/12E-list.txt

Also as I posted last night, the microwave presentation was similar in systems that had recon fixes of 115kts+.

[Kingarabian]

If it can hold on for another 18 hours that would be great. Recon mission would be interesting.

[EquusStorm]

In all honesty regardless of official classification I think I'm more impressed with Douglas' presentation, which I think is probably going to be forever underestimated. Two solid storms though.

[Visioen]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1295811977252671488?s=21

Yeah it really struck me those outer bands were colder than the inner clouds. Cold wake would explain it.

[alan1961]

Well the ISS just made its closest pass almost over Genevieve, i dont know why they could not just tilt the camera a few
degrees to give us a view of the eye but there ya go they can't do it for some reason, i do wonder why they dont take an
opportunity like this to get pictures of one of the great spectacles of weather but i suppose they have there reasons not too as well.
So annoying it was that close

[alan1961]

Its a thing of beauty when it stays away from land

[EquusStorm]

Might annoy the seabirds on Isla San Benedicto for a while. Hopefully everyone stays out of the water at Cabo til this passes by, gonna be some rough beach weather.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
600 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 108.8W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Puerto
Cortes

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz
* The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Puerto
Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Genevieve was located
near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 108.8 West. Genevieve is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is forecast
to move near but southwest of the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Genevieve is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Genevieve should hold its intensity or
strengthen a little through Wednesday, but steady weakening is
expected after that.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.14 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the southern Baja California peninsula by Wednesday
afternoon, especially over higher terrain. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or
Thursday morning, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 4 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur
and portions of the southwest coast of Mexico.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[EquusStorm]

Given cloud tops probably not surprising, might have peaked but certainly wasn't a disappointment if so.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Wow so impressive:

https://i.postimg.cc/50r2q9q5/EE7-AA00-A-BB08-496-C-85-EE-C8652-DE83289.png

This looks amazing

[Kingarabian]

18/2330 UTC 19.0N 108.8W T4.5/5.5 GENEVIEVE -- East Pacific

[aspen]

She’s on her way out and didn’t get as impressive as Douglas or storms from previous years (Barbara, Norman, Willa, etc), but at least we got another Cat 4 out of Genevieve. It won’t be long before the Atlantic starts to catch up with the EPac in terms of majors.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

While Genevieve continues to have a distinct eye on satellite
images, the inner-core convection has weakened during the past
several hours, although there is little evidence of any eyewall
replacement cycle starting. The majority of the satellite estimates
range from 100 to 110 kt, and a blend of these values gives an
initial wind speed of 105 kt.

My strong suspicion is that the hurricane has weakened today due to
it encountering cooler SSTs from the wake of Hurricane Elida (from
last week), and these waters will likely help limit any near-term
chance of strengthening. While Genevieve should move north of the
wake tomorrow, its slow movement and fairly large size could help
to maintain upwelling and cooler waters near the core. In a couple
of days, quickly falling SSTs should cause rapid weakening, and
Genevieve is forecast to be a non-convective low in 4 days over
waters near 23C. The new forecast is lower than the previous one,
but it is still above the model consensus at most times before 48
hours.

The hurricane has turned to the right tonight, with the latest
initial motion estimated to be 325/9 kt. A slightly slower
northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the
next day or so due to steering from a distant ridge over central
Mexico, taking the core of the hurricane near but just west of the
southern Baja California peninsula during that time. Similar to the
previous cycle, the models have shifted closer to the Baja
California Sur coast but still about 60 n mi offshore, and the NHC
forecast is adjusted in that direction. Thereafter, a mid-level
ridge over the southwestern United States should cause Genevieve to
turn more toward the west-northwest or northwest, away from the Baja
coast. A small eastward trend is noted at long range as well, and
the official forecast follows that lead.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to move just west of the Baja
California peninsula, but it is still expected to cause tropical
storm conditions across portions of southern Baja California Sur.
These conditions are expected to begin Wednesday afternoon and
could spread northwestward through Thursday.

2. Large swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and will spread northward along the coast
of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 19.5N 109.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 20.5N 109.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 21.5N 110.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 22.4N 111.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 23.1N 112.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 24.0N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 25.1N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 27.5N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/0000Z 29.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

[aspen]

Down to 100 kt, but it still looks good. Recon should be fun if Genevieve maintains this appearance.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

Genevieve continues to have a fairly well-defined eye in
geostationary satellite imagery, however a recent SSMIS microwave
overpass shows that the eyewall is open to the southwest and that
deep convection is generally lacking over the southwestern portion
of the circulation. The various satellite intensity estimates range
from about 80-96 kt, which SATCON being at the higher end. The
cloud tops over the northeastern portion of the circulation have
cooled within the past few hours, so the initial intensity is held
at a possibly generous 100 kt. An Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Genevieve this
afternoon, and should provide a better assessment of the
hurricane's intensity and size.

The hurricane has continued to move slightly right of track, and
the initial motion estimate is 335/8 kt. A north-northwestward
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest tonight as mid-level ridging builds over northwestern
Mexico. The new NHC forecast track has again been shifted slightly
east of the previous track at 12 and 24 hours, but it is essentially
unchanged thereafter. This track adjustment brings the center a
little closer to the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula tonight and early Thursday. Only a slight deviation to
the right of the track would bring hurricane-force winds onshore,
and the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a
portion of the southern coast of Baja California.

Genevieve is forecast to move over gradually decreasing sea surface
temperatures over the next couple of days, which should result in
slow weakening during that time. After 48 hours, the cyclone will
encounter much cooler waters and a more stable air mass. Therefore,
a more rapid rate of weakening is expected after that time, with
the system becoming a remnant low by 96 hours. The NHC intensity
forecast is a blend of the statistical and dynamic model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to pass near or just west of
the Baja California peninsula. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread across southern Baja California Sur this
afternoon and continuing through Thursday. Hurricane conditions
are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight and
continuing into Thursday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Genevieve may lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across portions of far southern Baja
California Sur through Thursday.

3. Large swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and will spread northward along the coast
of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 20.9N 109.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.7N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 22.6N 111.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 23.4N 112.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 24.3N 113.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 25.5N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 26.6N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 28.9N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[1900hurricane]

I must say, I definitely didn't expect upwelling from last week to keep Genevieve's intensity as in check as it has, and it appears the NHC was even caught a little off guard themselves. I wonder if developing La Nina and perhaps trends towards a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation has allowed what warm water there is in the EPac to be more shallow than usual and easily depleted/upwelled. Don't know if that's the answer, but just some speculation on my part.

[aspen]

Recon is on its way and is already past 102W; Genevieve is currently sitting at ~110W, so probably another 30-60 minutes before it arrives.