ATL: MARCO - Models

[Ivanhater]

So the HWRf shows Marco on a NW path, fairly weak, treking across the GoM (24 Hour - 1008 pressure).

Last run showed a TexMex storm. Let's see if it joins to other models to shift way east

[PTPatrick]

Yeah thru 30 hrs hwrf is not impressed with Marco. I guess if you have to get hit without much warning it’s better it’s from naked swirl.

[PTPatrick]

Thru 42 hrs both Hmon and hwrf in agreement, Marco will not last long as a cane and make its way toward panhandle as a weakened sheared naked mess. But noticed landfall near Pensacola at 48 it deepens a tad

[Ivanhater]

12z Hwrf with a huge shift east from Tex Mex border to NW Florida

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[tolakram]

I would think it would depend on the rest of the 12z models (as to if the NHC starts swinging the cone eastward). It will definitely be interesting to see what happens (with the models and the NHC). I don’t think I have ever seen models have so much discrepancy 72/48 hours out from landfall. 2020 is so bizarre.

Exactly my view. I have never seen so much uncertainty and such wild swings.

Look at the NHC forecast points though. It doesn't take much of a move to the 7PM MON position to put it inland. I think we'll see that east track shift this afternoon. We'll see.

[Ivanhater]

I don't thing I have ever seen such a huge swing this close to landfall. This of course has implications for swinging Laura further east as models are now showing

[SoupBone]

HWRF 12Z

[Dean4Storms]

Hard to buy that big of a sheared mess with HWRF and HMON.

[cp79]

So areas that are outside the NHC cone may be ground zero in a couple days? Wow. Talk about a track mess.

[SoupBone]

Looking at the HWRF for Laura moving further west, I wonder if this is a game of follow the leader for the other models. If we see the HWRF move either east or west for the next Marco run, will it be catch up time? I still can't believe that this close to a potential landfall, we're having these wild shifts. These two systems and model runs will be studied for a very long time after this season is over.

[Nederlander]

Euro running now. Both is and the GFS initialized very poorly with a much higher central pressure. Should have better runs tonight with updated recon data. I guess this could imply further shifts East?

[SoupBone]

Euro definitely in more east on this run.

[Nederlander]

Euro keeps Marco weak, but is aligned with GFS now on SE LA

[Ivanhater]

12z euro much further east. 00z had Texas

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[SoupBone]

Euro keeps Marco weak, but is aligned with GFS now on SE LA

Yes, and here's the key (at least in my mind), with both in fairly good agreement within a 48 hour landfall, how much stock do you put into it? How often do the top globals agree? It's 2020 after all.

[ColdMiser123]

986 mb landfall into coastal Louisiana on the Euro.

A stronger storm will tend to move north, and on the right side of the NHC cone. This may lead to landfall before significant weakening occurs with increasing shear and the left turn.

[Nederlander]

Euro keeps Marco weak, but is aligned with GFS now on SE LA

Yes, and here's the key (at least in my mind), with both in fairly good agreement within a 48 hour landfall, how much stock do you put into it? How often do the top globals agree? It's 2020 after all.

With the wild action in the models, I would like to see the 0z runs stick to that trend to be sure. NHC will adjust East in small increments for the very same reason likely.

[Highteeld]

[BobHarlem]

Hmm GFS and Euro both doing a one/two punch on Louisiana. At least it's a bit weaker on the Euro, but that's not much comfort.

[USTropics]

The 12z GFS ensembles tell the story, a weaker/shallow system will get caught in the westerly flow quicker. A more developed/deeper system will go more north: