WPAC: BAVI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 965.7mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 5.4

[Hayabusa]

Note future 94W on the bottom

[1900hurricane]

Might be starting to upwell just a little bit. Convection isn't super deep.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/sayakasofiamori/status/1298149487534202880

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2020 Time : 104000 UTC
Lat : 30:26:24 N Lon : 125:18:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 950.0mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -15.3C Cloud Region Temp : -64.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 117nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.2 degrees

****************************************************

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/homosapieninhk/status/1298221903883067392

[1900hurricane]

On the move north, convection has begun to cool again a little. Looks like it's trying to open up a poleward outflow channel.

[euro6208]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08250909
SATCON: MSLP = 945 hPa MSW = 102 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 100.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 100 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 195 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -2.7 knots Source: MW

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2020 Time : 141000 UTC
Lat : 30:52:47 N Lon : 124:56:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 941.8mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.6 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : -14.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 111nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.8 degrees

****************************************************

[Nancy Smar]

09W BAVI 200825 1200 30.2N 125.4E WPAC 115 935

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/amsu/herndon/new_sector_file

[Hayabusa]

09W BAVI 200825 1200 30.2N 125.4E WPAC 115 935

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/amsu/herndon/new_sector_file

Is that a post warning revision? because the 12Z graphic shows 95 kt

[Nancy Smar]

09W BAVI 200825 1200 30.2N 125.4E WPAC 115 935

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/amsu/herndon/new_sector_file

Is that a post warning revision? because the 12Z graphic shows 95 kt

Probably not.

[aspen]

I have no idea why the JTWC is so hesitant to upgrade this to a Cat 3. Even Dvorak supports >=100 kt.

[euro6208]

Yeah. If Laura is a hurricane without even any estimates (3.5) showing a hurricane what more with Bavi (5.0)? No recon that's why?

I pegged it at 110 knots at least.

This is still intensifying at a good clip.

[Hayabusa]

ADT finally see a positive eye

2020AUG25 151000 5.7 939.7 107.2 5.7 5.8 5.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 9.33 -65.38 EYE 22 IR 24.6 30.90 -124.77 ARCHER HIM-8 39.9

[Hayabusa]

[Nancy Smar]

Recent radar images from China show that the right side of eyewall is becoming ragged. If this weakening trend continues, JTWC should remain the intensity of 95kt or decrease to 90kt or less at 18Z.

[NotoSans]

To be fair to JTWC, its 12Z intensity estimate is quite consistent with all available data.

[MarioProtVI]

Bavi is trying really hard to be relevant right now by striking the Koreas but Marco and now Laura are stealing all the attention

[euro6208]

Ongoing EWRC

WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE OUTER
SPIRAL BANDING, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM RETAINS A COMPACT EYEWALL
SURROUNDING A SMALL 10NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 251700Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE
INDICATES AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITH THE INNER EYEWALL
BEGINNING TO ERODE AND AN OUTER EYEWALL FORMING. THE UW-CIMSS M-PERC
PRODUCT ALSO DEPICTS THE TWO EYEWALLS, HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LOW AT ABOUT 10%. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 251134Z ASCAT-A IMAGE. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SST VALUES
(29 TO 30C) REMAIN CONDUCIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND A 251800Z ADT ESTIMATE OF
5.3/5.7 (ROUGHLY 95 TO 105 KNOTS). TY 09W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING STR TO THE EAST.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOLE OUTLIER AFUI, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A 47NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT REFLECTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW
UNCERTAINTY) FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE ERC COMPLETES AND THE
OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTS. NEAR TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS THE MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. TY 09W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS COOLER
SST (28-25C) OVER THE NORTHERN YELLOW SEA AND STRONG VWS AFTER TAU
24. TY 09W SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48 AS IT
GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND NEARS THE JET. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN