WTPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 09W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 41.6N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 41.6N 125.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 45.1N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 46.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 42.5N 126.5E.
27AUG20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
249 NM NORTH OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND COMPOSITE RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE KOREAN
PENINSULA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MSI AND
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MAINLAND
CHINA AND INDICATES THAT A RAPID WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE,
LARGELY DUE TO THE HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND TERRAIN
EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH OVER LAND PASSAGE. THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM INDICATES THAT IT IS CURRENTLY
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TS BAVI WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND BECOME FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 12. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL NATURE OF THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL REMAIN STRONG, WITH 30 KTS AT TAU 12 ONLY
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TO 25 KTS BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY WITH AEMN AND AFUM THE SOLE OUTLIERS WHICH BRING THE
REMINANTS OF THE CIRCULATION WESTWARD. DESPITE THESE OUTLIERS,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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