WPAC: BAVI - Post-Tropical

[Ed_2001]

0z Euro shifts closer to the GFS and lands it in North Korea as a powerful typhoon

[Hayabusa]

0z Euro shifts closer to the GFS and lands it in North Korea as a powerful typhoon

https://img1.weather.us/images/data/cache/model/download_model-en-087-0_modez_2020082400_69_8291_149.png

The image is unavailable to see, seeing the url of the image you are hotlinking it. It is better to download the image then upload it to an image hosting site.

[Hayabusa]

[Ed_2001]

0z Euro shifts closer to the GFS and lands it in North Korea as a powerful typhoon

https://img1.weather.us/images/data/cache/model/download_model-en-087-0_modez_2020082400_69_8291_149.png

The image is unavailable to see, seeing the url of the image you are hotlinking it. It is better to download the image then upload it to an image hosting site.

Thanks, I could see the picture on my side though. Unfortunately I am short on time here (it’s night and I need to wake up early), but I will keep that in mind.

[Hayabusa]

A quick plot of Bavi from ECMWF's data, the minimum pressure is a little more lower

[doomhaMwx]

I'm skeptical of those pressures depicted by the UKMET and even by the latest EURO run. We have seen models throw insane pressures for TCs at similar latitudes before, but in actuality, they didn't even come close. A met here used to say that this is a typical high latitude pressure bias of the models. I think the actual peak will be close/similar to JTWC's and JMA's current forecast (JTWC: 110kt / JMA: 80kt 955mb).

[euro6208]

Peak intensity increased to 110 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DENSE, SUSTAINED CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND AN IRREGULAR EYE 27 NM IN DIAMETER. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE
PRESENT IN THE MSI AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BETWEEN MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS, RJTD AND RCTP) AND T4.5 (77
KTS, PGTW). THE STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND EYE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE MSI LOOP SUPPORT AN INTENSITY CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END OF
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK VALUES. TY 09W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
EAST, AND HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO
THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
AND ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO
WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND LOW VWS (10-15 KTS), COUPLED WITH THE
WELL ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE
SYSTEM TO 105 KTS BY TAU 24 AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KTS BY TAU
36. AFTER THIS TIME, INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY BY TAU 48 TO AN INTENSITY OF 105 KTS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE YELLOW SEA. TY BAVI WILL MAKE LAND FALL
OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AT TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 100 NM AT TAU 48 INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO 130 NM BY TAU 72. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE OSCILLATED ABOUT
THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GFS, NAVGEM AND UK MODELS TO THE
WEST AND JGSM AND ECMWF MODELS TO THE EAST. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE STORM CENTER PASSAGE OVER SOUTH KOREA, BUT
THE EASTERN GROUP DOES CARRY THE STORM CENTER ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE. THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR
MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS THEREFORE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS IT IS SITUATED NEAR THE
CONSENSUS AND NEAR PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST TRACKS.
C. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER MAINLAND CHINA, IT WILL ACCELERATE
POLEWARD AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. RAPID
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
AND THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE GREATLY
AFTER TAU 72, WITH A TOTAL SPREAD OF 365 NM BY TAU 120. DESPITE THIS
HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE FINAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK,
THERE STILL REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT PACKING OF MODEL SOLUTIONS OVERALL.
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Just how rare are typhoon landfalls in North Korea?

According to NOAA Database, only 4 typhoon strength TCs reached North Korean coastline/ territory (all 4 were just Cat 1, the latest of which was Typhoon Lingling of 2019)


Typhoons are more frequent in South Korea although only 3 managed to reach S. Korea as major typhoon (Cat 3+) - Maemi (2003), Faye (1995) and Sarah (1959)

[Hayabusa]

Hmmm

09W BAVI 200824 1200 28.5N 126.4E WPAC 95 950

[Hayabusa]

Cat 4 peak

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR
013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 412 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT
SYSTEM WITH DENSE, SUSTAINED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A
TRANSIENT EYE WHICH HAS DEVELOPED AND FILLED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN THE EIR AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS
AND ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A 241003Z SSMIS 97
GHZ IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0(90KTS).
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND EYE DEVELOPMENT IN THE EIR
LOOP OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS SUPPORT AN INTENSITY CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE. TY BAVI HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND HAS CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), VERY
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND ESTABLISHED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL MOVE FROM FAVORABLE TO
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING,
MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VWS AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS, CONTINUED VERY WARM SSTS
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TO INTENSIFY TO 105 KTS DURING THIS
DECREASING VWS THEREAFTER ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM SSTS WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY FURTHER TO 115 KTS BY TAU 24. AS
THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STEERING RIDGE AND CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD, IT WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING
VWS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 85 KTS BY TAU 48.
THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE KOREAN
PENINSULA AND TRACK INLAND OVER MAINLAND CHINA. INTERACTION WITH
AN INCOMING TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN
WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN TO 40 KTS BY TAU 72. ADDITIONALLY,
IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THIS TIME AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 66 NM AT TAU
48 INCREASING TO 208 NM BY TAU 72. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CLUSTERED
ABOUT THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GFS, NAVGEM AND UK MODELS
TO THE WEST AND JGSM, GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS TO THE
EAST. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE STORM CENTER
PASSAGE OVER SOUTH KOREA, BUT THE EASTERN GROUP DOES CARRY THE STORM
CENTER ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE. THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
BEEN HIGHLY CONSISTENT FOR MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS. THE INITIAL PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS THEREFORE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
AS IT IS SITUATED NEAR THE CONSENSUS AND NEAR PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST
TRACKS.
C. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER MAINLAND CHINA, IT WILL ACCELERATE
POLEWARD AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. RAPID
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
AND THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS BIFURCATE AFTER
TAU 72 WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD > 1000 NM AT TAU 96. DESPITE
THIS HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE FINAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TRACK, THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT PACKING OF MODEL SOLUTIONS OVERALL.
NNNN

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

Pressures are often partially a function of TC size in globals too.

[Hayabusa]

[aspen]

Looks like Bavi is about to blow.

[aspen]

For some reason, the JTWC lowered Bavi’s intensity in the 18z best track update, from 95kt/950 mbar to 90kt/954 mbar. And they did that while the eye is opening up.

[1900hurricane]

Yep, eye clearly emerging.

[Kingarabian]

For some reason, the JTWC lowered Bavi’s intensity in the 18z best track update, from 95kt/950 mbar to 90kt/954 mbar. And they did that while the eye is opening up.

JTWC things.

[ElectricStorm]

For some reason, the JTWC lowered Bavi’s intensity in the 18z best track update, from 95kt/950 mbar to 90kt/954 mbar. And they did that while the eye is opening up.

Jtwc back at it again

[mrbagyo]