ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Anyone know how to donate or have a link for donations to the Cajun Navy?

They do an incredible job and if I donate, I want to know it is going to the right place.

Check this out: https://www.cajunnavyrelief.com/

Thank you!

[syfr]

I agree the National Hurricane Center was too conservative in their intensity forecasts but you raise a fascinating question (regarding why we weather enthusiasts have a broad impression that the NHC is conservative) that I've been thinking about for a long time, and I suspect the answer is quite complex, involving a multitude of factors.
(snip)
.

That's a really well reasoned and accurate appraisal of what we just went through.

The NHC has an extremely complex job ... and a responsibility to so many people and organization with important and divergent requirements.

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

AL132020, LAURA, 48,
20200818, 1200, , LO, 11.3N, 38.0W, 25, 1013,
20200818, 1800, , LO, 11.3N, 39.5W, 25, 1013,
20200819, 0000, , LO, 11.3N, 41.1W, 25, 1012,
20200819, 0600, , LO, 11.5N, 42.7W, 25, 1012,
20200819, 1200, , TD, 12.0N, 44.1W, 30, 1011,
20200819, 1800, , TD, 13.0N, 45.8W, 30, 1011,
20200820, 0000, , TD, 14.1N, 47.2W, 30, 1010,
20200820, 0600, , TD, 15.2N, 49.5W, 30, 1010,
20200820, 1200, , TS, 16.0N, 51.6W, 35, 1009,
20200820, 1800, , TS, 16.6N, 53.4W, 35, 1008,
20200821, 0000, , TS, 16.8N, 55.5W, 35, 1008,
20200821, 0600, , TS, 16.9N, 57.5W, 35, 1008,
20200821, 1200, , TS, 17.0N, 59.4W, 40, 1007,
20200821, 1800, , TS, 17.0N, 60.9W, 40, 1007,
20200821, 2130, L, TS, 17.1N, 61.7W, 40, 1008,
20200822, 0000, , TS, 17.1N, 62.7W, 40, 1008,
20200822, 0600, , TS, 17.4N, 64.5W, 40, 1008,
20200822, 1200, , TS, 17.9N, 65.9W, 45, 1006,
20200822, 1500, L, TS, 18.0N, 66.7W, 50, 1005,
20200822, 1800, , TS, 18.1N, 67.5W, 50, 1004,
20200822, 2130, L, TS, 18.2N, 68.6W, 50, 1003,
20200823, 0000, , TS, 18.2N, 68.8W, 50, 1003,
20200823, 0500, L, TS, 18.4N, 70.0W, 50, 1003,
20200823, 0600, , TS, 18.5N, 70.3W, 50, 1003,
20200823, 1200, , TS, 18.8N, 72.3W, 50, 1002,
20200823, 1800, , TS, 19.4N, 74.4W, 60, 998,
20200823, 2330, L, TS, 20.0N, 75.8W, 60, 997,
20200824, 0000, , TS, 20.0N, 76.0W, 60, 998,
20200824, 0600, , TS, 20.5N, 77.9W, 55, 1000,
20200824, 1200, , TS, 21.0N, 79.7W, 55, 1000,
20200824, 1800, L, TS, 21.5N, 81.4W, 55, 999,
20200825, 0000, L, TS, 22.2N, 83.2W, 60, 998,
20200825, 0600, , HU, 22.8N, 84.9W, 65, 994,
20200825, 1200, , HU, 23.3N, 86.1W, 70, 991,
20200825, 1800, , HU, 24.2N, 87.6W, 70, 988,
20200826, 0000, , HU, 24.9N, 88.9W, 80, 982,
20200826, 0600, , HU, 25.6N, 90.2W, 90, 976,
20200826, 1200, , HU, 26.5N, 91.5W, 105, 961,
20200826, 1800, , HU, 27.3N, 92.5W, 120, 950,
20200827, 0000, , HU, 28.5N, 93.0W, 130, 939,
20200827, 0600, L, HU, 29.8N, 93.3W, 135, 936,
20200827, 1200, , HU, 31.2N, 93.3W, 80, 955,
20200827, 1800, , TS, 32.9N, 92.9W, 50, 976,
20200828, 0000, , TS, 34.1N, 92.2W, 35, 994,
20200828, 0600, , TD, 35.5N, 91.8W, 30, 999,
20200828, 1200, , TD, 36.2N, 91.1W, 30, 1001,
20200828, 1800, , TD, 36.9N, 89.8W, 25, 1003,
20200829, 0000, , TD, 37.5N, 88.1W, 25, 1004,

Landfalls:
* Antigua, August 21 / 2130Z
* Ponce, Puerto Rico, August 22 / 1500Z
* El Algibe, Dominican Republic, August 22 / 2330Z
* San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, August 23 / 0500Z
* Santiago de Cuba, Cuba, August 23 / 2330Z
* Cayo Largo, Cuba, August 24 / 1800Z
* Pinar del Rio, Cuba, August 25 / 0000Z
* Cameron, Louisiana, August 27 / 0600Z

Several notes:

* Genesis is backed up 12 hours based on ASCAT passes that looked like a closed low earlier and Dvorak T1.5-2.0 ratings. Its structure barely changed (marginal TC) for a couple days, hence I made the status consistent. The upgrade to tropical storm was also 24 hours earlier based on ASCAT passes.
* The intensities were adjusted (mainly upward) in the Caribbean. Several data points and the Guantanamo land report suggested a higher intensity (up to 60 kt). The track was also adjusted with a Puerto Rican landfall in addition to the other landfalls.
* The peak intensity is likely complicated and will analyze. Here are my thoughts:

** The highest flight-level winds were 148 kt, which translate to 133 kt at the surface.
** The SFMR peaked at 138 kt, however, that was likely a bit on the high side. SFMR readings become unreliable in shallow water.
** The strongest radar returns I saw were 156 kt at about 8,000 feet. That would support an intensity of 140 kt. However, the highest echoes may have been transient.
** The highest Dvorak rating I saw was T6.5. It didn't appear the white ring completely wrapped around. That would support 127 kt.
** The pressure I estimate at landfall was 936 mb. That was based on a combination of multiple land observations including 936 mb in Cameron and in the 940s inland, plus readings from aircraft of 936 to 939 mb when adjusted. Using the P-W relationship, that would translate to about 125-130 kt. It had a high bias throughout the storm though.
** Surface observations in Lake Charles clearly suggest a major hurricane hit, and that was likely before the absolute maximum winds hit. The station also failed. That clearly supports an intense hurricane.
* Conclusion: My estimate for the peak intensity was 135 kt. That was based on a blend of all the data, under the assumption the radar echoes were probably a tad high. The tree damage was similar to, but a touch less than, Michael.

[Rail Dawg]

Compared to Michael the winds last night were probably 40 mph less. That is what 30 miles of land will do. Chasing anything south of Lake Charles would have been a death sentence.

We didn't get those "Fists of God" I was expecting. Yes some strong gusts but not the ones where you find it almost unbelievable like we had in Michael.

Chuck

[Blow_Hard]

it is very hard for me to watch much footage of the destruction. It brings back a lot of bad memories and it is just gut wrenching to see people walking around in a state of semi shock. I would say the one really neat thing about the aftermath of Michael was seeing how the community came together to help each other out and seeing the out pouring of help from people all across the Southeast. Today, the kids at one of our local high schools, Bay High (my alma mater) started a collection drive for the victims of Hurricane Laura and will be sending a semi truck full of basic essentials. I am personally donating water and my wife went and purchased a bunch of diapers. It's not much, but we felt strongly about trying to do a little something because of all the support our community got to help get us back on our feet.

God speed to everyone in Louisiana and Texas who was affected...

[Kingarabian]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

AL132020, LAURA, 43,
20200818, 1200, , LO, 11.3N, 38.0W, 25, 1013,
20200818, 1800, , LO, 11.3N, 39.5W, 25, 1013,
20200819, 0000, , LO, 11.3N, 41.1W, 25, 1012,
20200819, 0600, , LO, 11.5N, 42.7W, 25, 1012,
20200819, 1200, , TD, 12.0N, 44.1W, 30, 1011,
20200819, 1800, , TD, 13.0N, 45.8W, 30, 1011,
20200820, 0000, , TD, 14.1N, 47.2W, 30, 1010,
20200820, 0600, , TD, 15.2N, 49.5W, 30, 1010,
20200820, 1200, , TS, 16.0N, 51.6W, 35, 1009,
20200820, 1800, , TS, 16.6N, 53.4W, 35, 1008,
20200821, 0000, , TS, 16.8N, 55.5W, 35, 1008,
20200821, 0600, , TS, 16.9N, 57.5W, 35, 1008,
20200821, 1200, , TS, 17.0N, 59.4W, 40, 1007,
20200821, 1800, , TS, 17.0N, 60.9W, 40, 1007,
20200821, 2130, L, TS, 17.1N, 61.7W, 40, 1008,
20200822, 0000, , TS, 17.1N, 62.7W, 40, 1008,
20200822, 0600, , TS, 17.4N, 64.5W, 40, 1008,
20200822, 1200, , TS, 17.9N, 65.9W, 45, 1006,
20200822, 1500, L, TS, 18.0N, 66.7W, 50, 1005,
20200822, 1800, , TS, 18.1N, 67.5W, 50, 1004,
20200822, 2130, L, TS, 18.2N, 68.6W, 50, 1003,
20200823, 0000, , TS, 18.2N, 68.8W, 50, 1003,
20200823, 0500, L, TS, 18.4N, 70.0W, 50, 1003,
20200823, 0600, , TS, 18.5N, 70.3W, 50, 1003,
20200823, 1200, , TS, 18.8N, 72.3W, 50, 1002,
20200823, 1800, , TS, 19.4N, 74.4W, 60, 998,
20200823, 2330, L, TS, 20.0N, 75.8W, 60, 997,
20200824, 0000, , TS, 20.0N, 76.0W, 60, 998,
20200824, 0600, , TS, 20.5N, 77.9W, 55, 1000,
20200824, 1200, , TS, 21.0N, 79.7W, 55, 1000,
20200824, 1800, L, TS, 21.5N, 81.4W, 55, 999,
20200825, 0000, L, TS, 22.2N, 83.2W, 60, 998,
20200825, 0600, , HU, 22.8N, 84.9W, 65, 994,
20200825, 1200, , HU, 23.3N, 86.1W, 70, 991,
20200825, 1800, , HU, 24.2N, 87.6W, 70, 988,
20200826, 0000, , HU, 24.9N, 88.9W, 80, 982,
20200826, 0600, , HU, 25.6N, 90.2W, 90, 976,
20200826, 1200, , HU, 26.5N, 91.5W, 105, 961,
20200826, 1800, , HU, 27.3N, 92.5W, 120, 950,
20200827, 0000, , HU, 28.5N, 93.0W, 130, 939,
20200827, 0600, L, HU, 29.8N, 93.3W, 135, 936,
20200827, 1200, , HU, 31.2N, 93.3W, 80, 968,
20200827, 1800, , TS, 32.9N, 92.9W, 50, 988,

Landfalls:
* Antigua, August 21 / 2130Z
* Ponce, Puerto Rico, August 22 / 1500Z
* El Algibe, Dominican Republic, August 22 / 2330Z
* San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, August 23 / 0500Z
* Santiago de Cuba, Cuba, August 23 / 2330Z
* Cayo Largo, Cuba, August 24 / 1800Z
* Pinar del Rio, Cuba, August 25 / 0000Z
* Cameron, Louisiana, August 27 / 0600Z

Several notes:

* Genesis is backed up 12 hours based on ASCAT passes that looked like a closed low earlier and Dvorak T1.5-2.0 ratings. Its structure barely changed (marginal TC) for a couple days, hence I made the status consistent. The upgrade to tropical storm was also 24 hours earlier based on ASCAT passes.
* The intensities were adjusted (mainly upward) in the Caribbean. Several data points and the Guantanamo land report suggested a higher intensity (up to 60 kt). The track was also adjusted with a Puerto Rican landfall in addition to the other landfalls.
* The peak intensity is likely complicated and will analyze. Here are my thoughts:

** The highest flight-level winds were 148 kt, which translate to 133 kt at the surface.
** The SFMR peaked at 138 kt, however, that was likely a bit on the high side. SFMR readings become unreliable in shallow water.
** The strongest radar returns I saw were 156 kt at about 8,000 feet. That would support an intensity of 140 kt. However, the highest echoes may have been transient.
** The highest Dvorak rating I saw was T6.5. It didn't appear the white ring completely wrapped around. That would support 127 kt.
** The pressure I estimate at landfall was 936 mb. That was based on a combination of multiple land observations including 939 mb in Cameron and in the 940s inland, plus readings from aircraft of 936 to 939 mb when adjusted. Using the P-W relationship, that would translate to about 125-130 kt. It had a high bias throughout the storm though.
** Surface observations in Lake Charles clearly suggest a major hurricane hit, and that was likely before the absolute maximum winds hit. The station also failed. That clearly supports an intense hurricane.
* Conclusion: My estimate for the peak intensity was 135 kt. That was based on a blend of all the data, under the assumption the radar echoes were probably a tad high. The tree damage was similar to, but a touch less than, Michael.

Always appreciate these after the storms pass. Keep them coming, Crazy!

[CrazyC83]

Compared to Michael the winds last night were probably 40 mph less. That is what 30 miles of land will do. Chasing anything south of Lake Charles would have been a death sentence.

We didn't get those "Fists of God" I was expecting. Yes some strong gusts but not the ones where you find it almost unbelievable like we had in Michael.

Chuck

I'd suspect most of the winds in Lake Charles were in the category 2 to 3 range (supported by the airport data - that was likely category 3 peak there but that's an open area - not a built up community). It's possible there may have been a small area of category 4 conditions on the river, but that would have required a due south wind trajectory (open exposure)

As far as impact, I would have it at LA4, CTX1. I think category 1 conditions probably happened in extreme eastern Texas along the Sabine River, particularly in Orange and Sabine Pass. In Louisiana, the strongest winds (category 4) probably took place on the Gulf waterfront from Cameron to Creole and possibly on the north shore of Calcasieu Lake with the longest fetch.

[Blinhart]

I've been in at least 3 Tornado Warnings, and now in a Flash Flood Warning. The wind is starting to pick up consistently, the rain has been non-stop for a while now. Will keep on posting while I have internet and electricity.

Howd you make out buddy? Everything good? Everyone safe?

Ok everybody, we lost power and internet around 2:45 this morning, and it just came back on, you are the first guys I'm talking to since it came off.

We have a lot of tree debris, some minor damage, but not enough to file an insurance claim. Other than that everything is doing good.

I did a quick survey from Crowley to Mermentau to Lake Arthur to Kaplan and back to Crowley. The majority of the damage was tree damage, roof shingles blown off, and aluminum siding/roofs blown all over the place. There was some buildings that had some major damage, there is plenty of power poles down. I didn't go into any neighborhoods, because I didn't want to get in trouble or in the way, stayed on the main highways, so didn't see all the damage inside the towns. Looks like the storm surge wasn't nearly as bad as thought.

[Blinhart]

People have to realize that surge forecasting is about the POTENTIAL surge an area could see. Even a slight deviation to the angle of approach and the surge can be vastly different. 20+foot storm surge likely occurred somewhere along the coast. If they don’t forecast the potential surge over a large area, many people would be caught by surprise when the water rises higher than forecast. The way the NHC warned about it, the only surprise was the water wasn’t as high in some areas.

Correct. The numbers from the storm surge inundation map are the reasonable worst case scenario (or 1 in 10). The model accounts for things like track deviation, storm size, and tides. Had the storm made landfall 15 or 20 miles further west then...

I'm also thinking that the speed of her intensification and forward motion was to fast for the surge to catch up to her, therefore it wasn't as bad as it could of been.

[CrazyC83]

Always appreciate these after the storms pass. Keep them coming, Crazy!

I know some continue to speculate about a category 5 intensity. After Michael, there were multiple data points supporting it. That is not the case here - the flight-level winds don't, pressure relationships don't, satellite signature doesn't and SFMR is questionable. Only the radar velocities did and I'm not convinced it was solid enough.

The Cuban landfalls were increased to 60 kt in my analysis as well and a Puerto Rico landfall (at 50 kt) I added, deviating from the working BT which I think was about 0.2 to 0.3 degrees off.

[eastcoastFL]

I've been in at least 3 Tornado Warnings, and now in a Flash Flood Warning. The wind is starting to pick up consistently, the rain has been non-stop for a while now. Will keep on posting while I have internet and electricity.

Howd you make out buddy? Everything good? Everyone safe?

Ok everybody, we lost power and internet around 2:45 this morning, and it just came back on, you are the first guys I'm talking to since it came off.

We have a lot of tree debris, some minor damage, but not enough to file an insurance claim. Other than that everything is doing good.

I did a quick survey from Crowley to Mermentau to Lake Arthur to Kaplan and back to Crowley. The majority of the damage was tree damage, roof shingles blown off, and aluminum siding/roofs blown all over the place. There was some buildings that had some major damage, there is plenty of power poles down. I didn't go into any neighborhoods, because I didn't want to get in trouble or in the way, stayed on the main highways, so didn't see all the damage inside the towns. Looks like the storm surge wasn't nearly as bad as thought.

I’m really happy to hear you and the family are safe and well. Pretty good job by the power company getting you back on so fast. They could teach FPL a thing our two. Very glad to hear from you!

[eastcoastFL]

Always appreciate these after the storms pass. Keep them coming, Crazy!

I know some continue to speculate about a category 5 intensity. After Michael, there were multiple data points supporting it. That is not the case here - the flight-level winds don't, pressure relationships don't, satellite signature doesn't and SFMR is questionable. Only the radar velocities did and I'm not convinced it was solid enough.

The Cuban landfalls were increased to 60 kt in my analysis as well and a Puerto Rico landfall (at 50 kt) I added, deviating from the working BT which I think was about 0.2 to 0.3 degrees off.

The damage didn’t seem to be that of a Cat 5. Don’t get me wrong it was terrible but not the utter devastation for miles and miles that only a cat 5 delivers.

[Highteeld]

Downgraded to tropical depression.

[ColdMiser123]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

AL132020, LAURA, 44,
20200818, 1200, , LO, 11.3N, 38.0W, 25, 1013,
20200818, 1800, , LO, 11.3N, 39.5W, 25, 1013,
20200819, 0000, , LO, 11.3N, 41.1W, 25, 1012,
20200819, 0600, , LO, 11.5N, 42.7W, 25, 1012,
20200819, 1200, , TD, 12.0N, 44.1W, 30, 1011,
20200819, 1800, , TD, 13.0N, 45.8W, 30, 1011,
20200820, 0000, , TD, 14.1N, 47.2W, 30, 1010,
20200820, 0600, , TD, 15.2N, 49.5W, 30, 1010,
20200820, 1200, , TS, 16.0N, 51.6W, 35, 1009,
20200820, 1800, , TS, 16.6N, 53.4W, 35, 1008,
20200821, 0000, , TS, 16.8N, 55.5W, 35, 1008,
20200821, 0600, , TS, 16.9N, 57.5W, 35, 1008,
20200821, 1200, , TS, 17.0N, 59.4W, 40, 1007,
20200821, 1800, , TS, 17.0N, 60.9W, 40, 1007,
20200821, 2130, L, TS, 17.1N, 61.7W, 40, 1008,
20200822, 0000, , TS, 17.1N, 62.7W, 40, 1008,
20200822, 0600, , TS, 17.4N, 64.5W, 40, 1008,
20200822, 1200, , TS, 17.9N, 65.9W, 45, 1006,
20200822, 1500, L, TS, 18.0N, 66.7W, 50, 1005,
20200822, 1800, , TS, 18.1N, 67.5W, 50, 1004,
20200822, 2130, L, TS, 18.2N, 68.6W, 50, 1003,
20200823, 0000, , TS, 18.2N, 68.8W, 50, 1003,
20200823, 0500, L, TS, 18.4N, 70.0W, 50, 1003,
20200823, 0600, , TS, 18.5N, 70.3W, 50, 1003,
20200823, 1200, , TS, 18.8N, 72.3W, 50, 1002,
20200823, 1800, , TS, 19.4N, 74.4W, 60, 998,
20200823, 2330, L, TS, 20.0N, 75.8W, 60, 997,
20200824, 0000, , TS, 20.0N, 76.0W, 60, 998,
20200824, 0600, , TS, 20.5N, 77.9W, 55, 1000,
20200824, 1200, , TS, 21.0N, 79.7W, 55, 1000,
20200824, 1800, L, TS, 21.5N, 81.4W, 55, 999,
20200825, 0000, L, TS, 22.2N, 83.2W, 60, 998,
20200825, 0600, , HU, 22.8N, 84.9W, 65, 994,
20200825, 1200, , HU, 23.3N, 86.1W, 70, 991,
20200825, 1800, , HU, 24.2N, 87.6W, 70, 988,
20200826, 0000, , HU, 24.9N, 88.9W, 80, 982,
20200826, 0600, , HU, 25.6N, 90.2W, 90, 976,
20200826, 1200, , HU, 26.5N, 91.5W, 105, 961,
20200826, 1800, , HU, 27.3N, 92.5W, 120, 950,
20200827, 0000, , HU, 28.5N, 93.0W, 130, 939,
20200827, 0600, L, HU, 29.8N, 93.3W, 135, 936,
20200827, 1200, , HU, 31.2N, 93.3W, 80, 968,
20200827, 1800, , TS, 32.9N, 92.9W, 50, 988,
20200828, 0000, , TS, 34.1N, 92.2W, 35, 994,

Landfalls:
* Antigua, August 21 / 2130Z
* Ponce, Puerto Rico, August 22 / 1500Z
* El Algibe, Dominican Republic, August 22 / 2330Z
* San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, August 23 / 0500Z
* Santiago de Cuba, Cuba, August 23 / 2330Z
* Cayo Largo, Cuba, August 24 / 1800Z
* Pinar del Rio, Cuba, August 25 / 0000Z
* Cameron, Louisiana, August 27 / 0600Z

Several notes:

* Genesis is backed up 12 hours based on ASCAT passes that looked like a closed low earlier and Dvorak T1.5-2.0 ratings. Its structure barely changed (marginal TC) for a couple days, hence I made the status consistent. The upgrade to tropical storm was also 24 hours earlier based on ASCAT passes.
* The intensities were adjusted (mainly upward) in the Caribbean. Several data points and the Guantanamo land report suggested a higher intensity (up to 60 kt). The track was also adjusted with a Puerto Rican landfall in addition to the other landfalls.
* The peak intensity is likely complicated and will analyze. Here are my thoughts:

** The highest flight-level winds were 148 kt, which translate to 133 kt at the surface.
** The SFMR peaked at 138 kt, however, that was likely a bit on the high side. SFMR readings become unreliable in shallow water.
** The strongest radar returns I saw were 156 kt at about 8,000 feet. That would support an intensity of 140 kt. However, the highest echoes may have been transient.
** The highest Dvorak rating I saw was T6.5. It didn't appear the white ring completely wrapped around. That would support 127 kt.
** The pressure I estimate at landfall was 936 mb. That was based on a combination of multiple land observations including 939 mb in Cameron and in the 940s inland, plus readings from aircraft of 936 to 939 mb when adjusted. Using the P-W relationship, that would translate to about 125-130 kt. It had a high bias throughout the storm though.
** Surface observations in Lake Charles clearly suggest a major hurricane hit, and that was likely before the absolute maximum winds hit. The station also failed. That clearly supports an intense hurricane.
* Conclusion: My estimate for the peak intensity was 135 kt. That was based on a blend of all the data, under the assumption the radar echoes were probably a tad high. The tree damage was similar to, but a touch less than, Michael.

Great summary of all of the available data. Just going to add that a WeatherFlow station at Cameron fell down to 936 mb, which further supports your estimated landfall pressure.

It's very close between an intensity of 130 vs 135 KT. Ultimately, an objective radar velocity analysis in the NHC TCR is what bumped up Michael's winds to 140 KT, so that kind of analysis would likely tilt toward whether 130 KT or 135 KT is the final post-season estimated landfall intensity.

[Steve]

Always appreciate these after the storms pass. Keep them coming, Crazy!

I know some continue to speculate about a category 5 intensity. After Michael, there were multiple data points supporting it. That is not the case here - the flight-level winds don't, pressure relationships don't, satellite signature doesn't and SFMR is questionable. Only the radar velocities did and I'm not convinced it was solid enough.

The Cuban landfalls were increased to 60 kt in my analysis as well and a Puerto Rico landfall (at 50 kt) I added, deviating from the working BT which I think was about 0.2 to 0.3 degrees off.

The damage didn’t seem to be that of a Cat 5. Don’t get me wrong it was terrible but not the utter devastation for miles and miles that only a cat 5 delivers.

It kind of did in those small communities. They still had some standing structures but the helicopter flyover of Cameron looked to show it was at least 90% destroyed. The difference is there aren’t miles and miles of things to destroy there. Those are like little villages.

[Chris90]

I don't know if this has already been mentioned, but I think it's a bit interesting that Laura was the replacement name picked for Lili in 2002, which also affected the Caribbean and made landfall in Louisiana, not terribly far away from Laura's landfall point. They took similar paths too, Laura was just a little farther to the north as she traversed the Caribbean.

Really really similar peak intensities as well:
Laura 130kts/937mb
Lili 125kts/938mb

A bit eerie. Kind of like terrible twins separated by 18 years.

[AnnularCane]

I don't know if this has already been mentioned, but I think it's a bit interesting that Laura was the replacement name picked for Lili in 2002, which also affected the Caribbean and made landfall in Louisiana, not terribly far away from Laura's landfall point. They took similar paths too, Laura was just a little farther to the north as she traversed the Caribbean.

Really really similar peak intensities as well:
Laura 130kts/937mb
Lili 125kts/938mb

A bit eerie. Kind of like terrible twins separated by 18 years.

I mentioned it at some point, but I think it's buried somewhere in the depths of this thread. As I recall, Lili was supposed to go to Texas, but landfalled in central LA instead (I was living in NOLA at the time). She made me more than a little nervous at one point when she made a big northward wobble almost due south of the city. Especially since I didn't know at the time if it was a wobble or an actual turn.

[HurricaneEdouard]

I agree the National Hurricane Center was too conservative in their intensity forecasts but you raise a fascinating question (regarding why we weather enthusiasts have a broad impression that the NHC is conservative) that I've been thinking about for a long time, and I suspect the answer is quite complex, involving a multitude of factors.

That's a really well reasoned and accurate appraisal of what we just went through.

The NHC has an extremely complex job ... and a responsibility to so many people and organization with important and divergent requirements.

Thanks, man! Appreciated; took a long time to type up.

[Gums]

Salute!

Thanks Blin, Steve, PT and others close to the target. Good stuff and even philosophy.

The overall intensity and exact course stuff that NHC and others put out now are way more accurate and useful than just ten or fifteen years ago.

However, as we say in the aviation community about the high tech stuff - "an eyeball contact is worth a thousand mile radar blip". And so it goes for those of us in or near these storms.
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Local topography and vegtetation and the undersea countour all play a part in what happens where you happen to be when the critter comes over you or nearby.

I was only 50 or 60 miles west of Michael and only had a few rain storms and no wind above what you would expect on a typical afternoon thunderstorm. OTOH, we were about 30 miles east of Opal and had severe wind, many trees down and that constant howl you get when the wind gets above 80 or 90.

I hope the loss of life down in SW LA is low. It would have been higher if not for the better NHC advisories, and you only have to look at what happened in the early summer of 1957 at Cameron.

Gums sends...

[HurricaneEdouard]

** The highest flight-level winds were 148 kt, which translate to 133 kt at the surface.
** The SFMR peaked at 138 kt, however, that was likely a bit on the high side. SFMR readings become unreliable in shallow water.
** The strongest radar returns I saw were 156 kt at about 8,000 feet. That would support an intensity of 140 kt. However, the highest echoes may have been transient.
** The highest Dvorak rating I saw was T6.5. It didn't appear the white ring completely wrapped around. That would support 127 kt.
** The pressure I estimate at landfall was 936 mb. That was based on a combination of multiple land observations including 939 mb in Cameron and in the 940s inland, plus readings from aircraft of 936 to 939 mb when adjusted. Using the P-W relationship, that would translate to about 125-130 kt. It had a high bias throughout the storm though.
** Surface observations in Lake Charles clearly suggest a major hurricane hit, and that was likely before the absolute maximum winds hit. The station also failed. That clearly supports an intense hurricane.
* Conclusion: My estimate for the peak intensity was 135 kt. That was based on a blend of all the data, under the assumption the radar echoes were probably a tad high. The tree damage was similar to, but a touch less than, Michael.

I just wanted to say I fully agree with this, and underpinned my thinking behind 135 knots, as well. I doubt the NHC will upgrade to 140 knots in post-season analysis, although if they do, I'd be fascinated to see the data that underpinned it, of course.

Wasn't the 138 knot reading contaminated by rain, or was that the earlier 137 knot reading? I thought the highest unflagged SFMR was 133 knots (but I was switching tabs pretty rapidly during those last few passes, so I might have missed an unflagged 138 knot reading), on the same pass as the 137 knot reading, and then again just before landfall.