ATL: LAURA - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs.

[Ubuntwo]

12z Euro goes major.

[TheStormExpert]

Lost track of many close encounters SE Florida has seen with hurricanes going from Matthew in 2016, Irma in 2017, Dorian in 2019, Isaias just a few weeks ago. Will this continue our luck? Time will tell!

[tolakram]

12Z Euro Hope this holds.

[chris_fit]

Initial solution from the EURO reminds me of a certain I storm from 2017, minus the WSW dip. One to watch.


12Z Euro 8/17/2020

[BYG Jacob]

BUYER BEWARE. DO. NOT. HUG. CLIMO. OR. MODEL. RUNS. MORE. THAN. A. WEEK. OUT

[BobHarlem]

This went from a Gulf system to Recurve between 0z and 12z euro. Wipers on!

[aspen]

12Z Euro Hope this holds.

https://i.imgur.com/9bTSoA6.gif

Well that’s totally not worrying for just about everyone on the East Coast. Only a little to the west, and it’s an East Coast Sweep like Irene.

[Cpv17]

This went from a Gulf system to Recurve between 0z and 12z euro. Wipers on!

It was favoring Texas a few runs ago lol now ots.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro Hope this holds.

https://i.imgur.com/9bTSoA6.gif

Well that’s totally not worrying for just about everyone on the East Coast. Only a little to the west, and it’s an East Coast Sweep like Irene.

Yea, it's way early, but it will be interesting to see if a ridge sticks it closer, or an opening lets it escape sooner. I've be concerned from Florida all the way up the coast, and including Bermuda if it goes east. My hope it hold is that I hope, like most storms in this area, it recurves.

[boca]

Besides Andrew when was the last time SE Florida got directly hit from a storm from the ESE? Lately is rare because the ridge stops between the Bahamas and east coast of Florida and they recurve just off our coast.

[aspen]

Besides Andrew when was the last time SE Florida got directly hit from a storm from the ESE? Lately is rare because the ridge stops between the Bahamas and east coast of Florida and they recurve just off our coast.

I think Frances ‘04. I know it struck the east coast of Florida from a Cape Verde track like Andrew, but I don’t recall how far south it hit.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that we will see the models trend all the way to a recurve into the Carolinas before this is over. And then we will see them trend left again and finally settle on a solution. Usually the answer lies somewhere in the middle. The Bahamas and Florida look to be under the gun. After that, Northern Gulf Coast, MS and AL. JMHO.

I didn't realize that my prediction from this mornings post would happen so soon...but there it is. I expect some more swings to the right and then it will swing back left and settle on a solution.

[plasticup]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/744992771785621544/sfcwind_mslp.png
12z Euro goes major.

That is terrifying. That's a Cat 4! And a tiny bump in either direction makes CONUS or Bermuda landfall.

[SouthFLTropics]

Besides Andrew when was the last time SE Florida got directly hit from a storm from the ESE? Lately is rare because the ridge stops between the Bahamas and east coast of Florida and they recurve just off our coast.

I think Frances ‘04. I know it struck the east coast of Florida from a Cape Verde track like Andrew, but I don’t recall how far south it hit.

Treasure Coast... About 100 miles north of Andrew's landfall point. Trust me, I was in the eye.

[cheezyWXguy]

Not too keen on dissecting individual model runs this far out, but just for educational purposes, what is causing the euro to lift it out so dramatically? Looking at the 500mb pattern, it looks to me like the storm starts to lift north long before the trough digs down.

[TheStormExpert]

Besides Andrew when was the last time SE Florida got directly hit from a storm from the ESE? Lately is rare because the ridge stops between the Bahamas and east coast of Florida and they recurve just off our coast.

It almost need a storm heading due west like Andrew or even Dorian last year in order to reach Florida before the ridges breaks down or erodes. Being that it’s 8 days out there’s still wiggle room though.

[caneseddy]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that we will see the models trend all the way to a recurve into the Carolinas before this is over. And then we will see them trend left again and finally settle on a solution. Usually the answer lies somewhere in the middle. The Bahamas and Florida look to be under the gun. After that, Northern Gulf Coast, MS and AL. JMHO.

I didn't realize that my prediction from this mornings post would happen so soon...but there it is. I expect some more swings to the right and then it will swing back left and settle on a solution.

I'm just waiting for the GFS track of a major into NYC like it showed with Irma on one of its runs

[toad strangler]

Not too keen on dissecting individual model runs this far out, but just for educational purposes, what is causing the euro to lift it out so dramatically? Looking at the 500mb pattern, it looks to me like the storm starts to lift north long before the trough digs down.

Don't trust it. Too far out.

[cheezyWXguy]

Not too keen on dissecting individual model runs this far out, but just for educational purposes, what is causing the euro to lift it out so dramatically? Looking at the 500mb pattern, it looks to me like the storm starts to lift north long before the trough digs down.

Don't trust it. Too far out.

Not trusting it. Just trying to understand what it depicts.