ATL: LAURA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 19 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 47.9W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as tropical storm watches could be required for those areas
on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 47.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move
near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and
near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm by late Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Friday night
over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 19 2020

The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the
central tropical Atlantic has now developed a well-defined center of
circulation and maintained enough organized deep convection to be
classified as a tropical depression, the thirteenth cyclone of the
2020 Atlantic hurricane season. The depression already has some
banding features on its north and west sides as evident in
geostationary satellite and microwave images. The initial intensity
is set at 30 kt based on ASCAT data from around 0100 UTC and a
T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB.

The depression has been moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest,
with the latest initial motion estimated to be 295/17 kt. It should
be noted that the initial motion is somewhat uncertain given that
the system has only recently formed. A subtropical ridge currently
over the central Atlantic is expected to build westward during the
next several days and should be the primary steering feature for
the depression through the forecast period. This pattern should
keep the depression on a fairly quick west-northwest track during
the next several days, taking the cyclone near the northern
Leeward Islands by Friday night and near the Greater Antilles
and southeastern Bahamas this weekend. The models are in fairly
good agreement, but there is some north-south spread with the GFS
being on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF
on the northern end. The NHC track forecast lies down the middle
of the guidance suite.

The environmental conditions appear generally favorable for the
depression to strengthen, with the wind shear expected to remain
relatively low while the system moves over warm SSTs and remains in
a moist airmass. These conditions should promote gradual
strengthening and it seems quite likely that the cyclone will be a
tropical storm when it moves near or north of the northern Leeward
Islands in a couple of days. The bigger question is how
much interaction will there be with the Greater Antilles. If the
depression moves on the south side of the guidance envelope,
further strengthening would be limited due to land interaction.
Conversely, if the system gains more latitude and moves north of
these highly topographic islands, it could have the opportunity for
more significant intensification. The NHC intensity forecast, which
is of low confidence, is roughly near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches
have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is
likely across this area beginning late Friday.

2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical
Storm Watches could be required for these islands tomorrow.
Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions
of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could
bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola,
Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week.
Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to
the forecast over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 14.6N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 16.1N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 17.4N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 18.4N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 19.1N 62.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 19.9N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 20.8N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 22.9N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 26.2N 82.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 49.8W
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 49.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On
the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north
of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm by later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Sunday over
the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

There has been little change in the organization of Tropical
Depression Thirteen during the past several hours. An area of
ragged but persistent convection continues near the estimated
center position, and there is some outer banding in the southern
semicircle. Dvorak-based satellite intensity estimates have
changed little since the last advisory, so the initial intensity
remains 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/18. The subtropical
ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to build westward to
the north of the Greater Antilles during the next several days, and
this should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward through
the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good
agreement with this scenario, but there remains a spread between
the GFS/UKMET on the south side of the guidance and the
Canadian/HMON on the north side. Overall, the envelope has shifted
a little to the south since the previous advisory and the new
forecast track, which lies just to the north of the consensus
models, is also nudged southward. The new track calls for the
cyclone to pass near the Leeward Islands in 36-48 h, near or north
of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in 48-60 h, and then near or
over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas by 72 h.

Overall, the environment looks generally favorable for
strengthening, with the cyclone expected to encounter light- to
moderate shear during forecast period. However, the guidance
responds to this environment with a wide range of solutions. The
HWRF/HMON forecast the cyclone to intensify into a major hurricane
by 120 h. On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the system
degenerating into an open wave by 120 h. The UKMET and Canadian
models are between these extremes. The weak GFS solution appears
to be due to forecast dry air entrainment, which is a possibility
as satellite imagery suggests Saharan dust not far from the
cyclone. Between these factors and the possibility of land
interaction, the low-confidence intensity forecast is changed
little from the previous advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches
have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is
likely across this area beginning late Friday.

2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical
Storm Watches could be required for these islands later today.
Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions
of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could
bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola,
Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week.
Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to
the forecast over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 15.2N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 16.4N 52.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 17.5N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 18.4N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 19.8N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 20.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 23.0N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 26.0N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 50.9W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Maarten as issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Maarten.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 50.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On
the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north
of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Sunday over
the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 52.0W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 52.0 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days.
On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or
north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or
north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over the northern
Leeward Islands, and maximum totals of 3 to 6 inches over Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

The organization of the depression has not changed much overnight
or this morning. An area of convection has persisted near the
estimated center, with some banding noted over the northwestern
portion of the circulation. An earlier SSMIS overpass was very
helpful in locating the center of what appears to be a small
circulation. A very recent ASCAT overpass has also revealed a
small circulation that is weak on the southeastern side, but with
winds near tropical storm strength to the north of the center. The
ASCAT data along with subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and
SAB support maintaining the 30-kt initial intensity.

The depression continues to move briskly west-northwestward or
290/18 kt. The track forecast philosophy has not changed from
before. A subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast
to build westward and strengthen over the next several days. This
pattern is expected to keep the cyclone on a west-northwestward
heading throughout the forecast period. The dynamical models
continue to agree on this overall scenario, but there some
differences in both forward speed and how close it gets to the
Greater Antilles. In general, the models that indicate a stronger
cyclone favor a more northern track, while those which depicted a
weaker system are along the southern and faster side of the
envelope. The latest consensus aids are little north of the
previous track, and the new NHC forecast lies between the HFIP
corrected consensus and the TVCA multi-model consensus. This is
slightly north of the previous advisory, and not far from the GFS
ensemble mean.

The environment consisting of light to moderate vertical wind shear
is expected to allow for gradual strengthening over the next few
days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical
storm later today or tonight. The upper-level wind pattern is
expected to remain favorable in the latter portion of the forecast
period, and if there is minimal land interaction, a faster rate of
strengthening is possible at that time. The NHC intensity foreast
now shows the system becoming a hurricane by 96 hours, but it is a
little lower than the consensus aids at days 4 and 5 due to
uncertainty in how much the system will interact with the Greater
Antilles.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches
have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is
likely across this area beginning late Friday.

2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical
Storm Watches could be required for these islands later today.
Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions
of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could
bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early
next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress
and updates to the forecast over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 16.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 17.0N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 18.0N 58.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 18.9N 61.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 19.6N 64.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 20.4N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 21.5N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 24.0N 78.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 52.8W
ABOUT 700 MI...1120 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 52.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On
the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north
of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over the northern
Leeward Islands, and maximum totals of 3 to 6 inches over Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 53.9W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The Government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
British Virgin Islands.

The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 53.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On
the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north
of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday, near or north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north
of Hispaniola Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast
to become a tropical storm on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over the northern
Leeward Islands, and maximum totals of 3 to 6 inches over Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area late Friday and Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

Recent late afternoon visible satellite imagery has shown evidence
of a low-level swirl that is racing away from the persistent area
of deep convection. It is unclear if that is the only center of
circulation or a swirl rotating around the broader circulation.
The initial position for this advisory is a compromise between the
earlier estimated center location and the swirl seen in satellite
imagery. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on
the earlier ASCAT data.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/18 kt. The
cyclone is located south of a subtropical ridge that is forecast to
build westward over the western Atlantic through early next week.
This ridge should steer the system west-northwestward over the next
several days, and the suite of dynamical track models continue to be
agreement on this overall scenario. The lastest NHC track foreast
is similar to the previous advisory and again lies between the HFIP
corrected consensus and the TVCA multi-model consensus. It should
be noted that since the system is still lacking in organization,
there could be some center reformations that result in some shifts
in the track forecast.

Although the depression has changed little in strength since it
formed yesterday, the overall environment ahead of the system
favors gradual strengthening. The cyclone is forecast to remain
over warm water and in an area of light to moderate vertical wind
shear. Most of the guidance suggests a little more favorable
upper-level wind pattern once the system is north of the Greater
Antilles, but a track farther south would result in more land
interaction, which increases the intensity forecast uncertainty.
The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly slower rate of
strengthening over the next couple of days, but is unchanged at the
latter periods. The overall confidence in both the track and
intensity forecasts remain lower than normal.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
Friday night and Saturday, and Tropical Storm Watches have been
issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across
this area beginning late Friday and could cause mudslides and flash
and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions
of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could
bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early
next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress
and updates to the forecast over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 16.7N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 17.5N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 18.3N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 20.0N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 20.9N 70.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 22.2N 74.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 25.1N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 28.3N 84.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

...INITIAL REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 55.5W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of poorly organized Tropical
Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude
55.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near
21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the
next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to
move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday,
near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and
near or north of Hispaniola Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane
Hunter data is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over the northern
Leeward Islands, and maximum totals of 3 to 6 inches over Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area late Friday and Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

...HEAVY RAINS FROM THE DEPRESSION EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 56.4W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 56.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move
near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday, near
or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and
near or north of Hispaniola Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
likely to become a tropical storm by the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane
Hunter data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of
rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday.
Heavy rainfall associated with the depression may cause mudslides
on sensitive slopes and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.
Over the northern Leeward Islands, the Dominican Republic, and
Haiti, 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5
inches are expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area late Friday and Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been flying all around the
circulation of the depression this evening, providing valuable
information on the low-level structure. The strongest winds are
primarily northeast of the center, with an elongated surface
circulation and a mid-level swirl near the southern end. While the
plane couldn't locate a definite center, there's enough uncertainty
and curvature in the plane's wind field data to hold onto the
system as 30-kt tropical depression for now. Another mission should
be in the area around 1200 UTC. A late-arriving scatterometer pass
confirms both the disorganization of the cyclone and the maximum
winds.

The initial motion continues about the same as before, 290/19. A
strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should remain
north of the depression during the next few days, steering the
cyclone at a fast pace to the west-northwest. After the weekend,
the ridge weakens some over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, leading to
depression probably turning more to the northwest. The guidance
has trended to the south and west after 24 hours tonight, led by
the GFS and HWRF models. I'm not inclined to make significant
changes since the models are about to ingest the information from
the reconnaissance mission, plus the initial disorganization of the
center, but the new track is still adjusted slightly to the south
and west, north of much of the guidance.

The depression should be moving through mixed conditions over the
next few days. While the water is very warm, GFS forecasts show that
there is significant mid-level shear that could continue to mix in
nearby dry air toward the center. This shear will probably relax
late this weekend or early next week, but there is very poor
agreement on how much shear remains and the timing of this event.
In addition, a track any farther south would result in potentially
mountainous land interaction, which also increases the intensity
forecast uncertainty. No significant changes were made to the
previous wind speed forecast, and the overall confidence in both
the track and intensity forecasts remain lower than normal.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
Friday night and Saturday, and Tropical Storm Watches have been
issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across
this area beginning late Friday and could cause mudslides and flash
and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions
of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could
bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early
next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress
and updates to the forecast over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 17.3N 56.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 17.9N 59.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 18.6N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 19.4N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 20.3N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 21.3N 72.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 22.6N 76.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 26.0N 82.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 29.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 58.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island,
Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, as well as
for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor
the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches
or warnings will be required for portions of those areas later
today. Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should
also monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 58.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph
(33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near
or north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or north
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north
of Hispaniola Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
likely to become a tropical storm by the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday. Locally heavy
rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an
increased potential for mudslides. Some rivers may overflow their
banks.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Dominican Republic,
Haiti, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area later today through Saturday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

Tropical Depression Thirteen remains very disorganized this morning.
The associated convection is elongated from northwest to southeast,
and the low-level center is located near the northwestern end of the
convective area. Additionally, satellite imagery and model analyses
indicate that the mid-level center is located several hundred miles
to the southeast of the low-level center. Earlier aircraft and
scatterometer data suggested the possibility that the system was an
open wave. However, the currently available data is ambiguous on
whether the system still has a closed circulation, so it will be
maintained as a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains
30 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/18 kt. There is
little change to the track forecast philosophy through about 96 h.
A strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should remain
north of the depression during the next few days, steering the
cyclone at a fast pace to the west-northwest. After that, the ridge
weakens some over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and Tropical
Depression Thirteen may interact with Tropical Depression Fourteen,
which is also forecast to be in the Gulf by that time, with the
result of these things being a turn toward the northwest or
north-northwest. The track guidance has shifted southward since the
last advisory, with the UKMET shifting far enough to the south that
it takes the system over the Caribbean south of Cuba. The new
forecast track is also shifted a bit southward from the previous
track. However, it lies to the north of the GFS, the UKMET, and the
various consensus models. It also lies north of the ECMWF model
from 24-72 h.

The intensity forecast remains low confidence. The separation
between the low- and mid-level centers, as well as some westerly
shear and dry air entrainment, suggests that significant
strengthening is unlikely during the next 24 h or so. The dynamical
models suggests the centers will become more vertically aligned
around 36-48 h and that the shear should diminish. However, the
system could be close to Hispaniola during this time, and be near
Cuba thereafter, especially if it moves south of the forecast track.
The upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico should be generally
favorable for development if the cyclone doesn't get too close to
Tropical Depression Fourteen. The possibilities range from the
system degenerating to an open wave as seen in the GFS and ECMWF to
a major hurricane as seen in the HWRF. Given the uncertainty, the
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and it
lies a little below the intensity consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands later today
through Saturday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been
issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across
this area beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash
and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions
of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could
bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early
next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress
and updates to the forecast over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 17.8N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 18.1N 60.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 18.8N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 19.7N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 20.6N 71.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 21.8N 74.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 23.2N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen
Intermediate Advisory Number 6A...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

Corrected latitude in summary block

...DEPRESSION NEARING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 59.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor
the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of those areas
later today. Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas
should also monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 59.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near
or north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or north
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north
of Hispaniola Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
likely to become a tropical storm by the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of
rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as
well as an increased potential for mudslides. Some rivers may
overflow their banks.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Dominican Republic,
Haiti, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area later today through Saturday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
905 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM LAURA...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical
Depression Thirteen has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm
Laura with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). The
aircraft also found that the center of Laura is located south of the
previously estimated position. These changes will be reflected in
the track and intensity forecasts with the upcoming advisory that
will be issued at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 905 AM AST...1305 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 59.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 60.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and the British
Virgin Islands.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Maarten.

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo
Cabron to the border with Haiti.

The government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with
the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Cabron to
the border with Haiti
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case within the next
12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 60.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a generally
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Laura will move near or over the northern Leeward Islands later
today, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the
northern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and the
southern Haitian Peninsula through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8
inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes
of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well
as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in
Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands,
the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area area later today through Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday
night and early Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating the system
this morning and found that the maximum winds have increased to near
40 kt, and therefore the cyclone is being named. The Hurricane
Hunters also found that the center of the storm is located somewhat
to the south of previous estimates. The system is better organized
than it was yesterday, but still lacks well-defined banding
features. However, some upper-level outflow is now noted over the
southern portion of the circulation. The official forecast calls
for some slow strengthening during the next couple of days, but the
intensity forecast is quite uncertain and depends on how much
interaction with land will occur. For now, we will assume that the
northern part of the circulation will remain over water so that the
system will not be too disrupted by Hispaniola and Cuba. The
official intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus
except at days 4 and 5 where it is a little lower due to these
uncertainties.

With the repositioning of the center, the motion is very uncertain
but is estimated to be 270/16 kt. Laura is expected to move mainly
west-northwestward on the south side of a subtropical high pressure
system over the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period,
the tropical cyclone should turn toward the northwest as it moves
around the western periphery of the high. The official track
forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one and is
on the northern side of the guidance suite.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today
through Saturday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Heavy
rainfall is likely across this area beginning today and could cause
mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coasts
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas,
and the Turks and Caicos islands Saturday and Sunday, and Tropical
Storm Watches are in effect.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move
near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.
However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts
to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and
the northeast U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests
there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the
forecast over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 62.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 18.3N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 19.2N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 20.2N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 21.6N 77.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 23.2N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 26.5N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 29.5N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...LAURA EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 60.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from
Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 60.8 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura
will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands later today,
near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern
coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and the
southern Haitian Peninsula through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8
inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes
of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well
as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in
Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches are
expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands,
the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area area later today through Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday
night and early Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...LAURA NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 61.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border
with the Dominican republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 61.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura
will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands later today,
near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern
coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the
southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash
and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides
with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands,
the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area area later today through Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday
night and early Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
500 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2020

A POORLY-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BECOME EVIDENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THERE IS LITTLE
OR NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. OVERALL, THE
SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN STILL HAS A RAGGED APPEARANCE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT, AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM HURRICANE
HUNTER OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLIER TODAY. THERE IS A FAIRLY
WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AT THIS TIME, BUT AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF LAURA COULD BE AN IMPEDIMENT TO
FUTURE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MAINLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
LAND MASSES OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. AT DAYS 4-5, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ALSO A BIT BELOW THE CONSENSUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES AT
THESE LONGER FORECAST RANGES.

THE CENTER IS NOT VERY EASY TO SEE, EVEN ON VISIBLE OR RADAR
IMAGES, BUT THE BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15 KT. THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE. LAURA SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
AT DAYS 4-5 AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, WHICH IS MOSTLY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT NOT QUITE AS FAR WEST AS THAT
GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ANOTHER NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
LAURA SHORTLY.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI FROM
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS
BEGINNING TODAY AND COULD CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY.

2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

3. THE DETAILS OF THE LONG-RANGE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS
REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL SINCE LAURA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER, LAURA COULD BRING STORM SURGE, RAINFALL, AND WIND IMPACTS
TO PORTIONS OF CUBA, THE BAHAMAS, AND FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS
THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA AND UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 17.1N 61.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 17.7N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 18.6N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 19.6N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1800Z 20.5N 74.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 24/0600Z 22.0N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 23.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 26.3N 86.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 29.0N 89.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...LAURA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 62.6W
ABOUT 250 MI...415 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 62.6 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center
of Laura will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands
tonight, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the
northern coast of Hispaniola Saturday night and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the
southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash
and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides
with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands,
the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday night and
early Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba,
and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LAURA QUITE DISORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 63.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
to a Tropical Storm Warning for the southeastern Bahamas and Turks
and Caicos Islands, and issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
central Bahamas.

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and
Montserrat.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 63.5 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a
generally west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Leeward
Islands tonight, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and
near the northern coast of Hispaniola Saturday night and early
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the
southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash
and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides
with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos
and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area area tonight through Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba,
and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

Laura remains quite disorganized this evening. Although satellite
and radar images show a fair amount of deep convection over and to
the east of the northern Leeward Islands, NOAA Hurricane
Hunter data and surface observations indicate that the low-level
center is located well to the west of the main area of deep
convection. This asymmetric structure indicates that Laura is still
not vertically aligned due to at least moderate wind shear. The
initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt, and most of
the strongest winds are well north and east of the center.

The steering pattern for Laura appears to be very well established.
A subtropical ridge over the central and western Atlantic is
expected to expand westward, and that should cause Laura to move
west-northwestward at a fairly quick pace during the next few days.
This should take the storm across Puerto Rico on Saturday, near
Hispaniola Saturday night, and close to or over Cuba on Sunday and
Monday. By early next week, Laura should approach the western end
of the ridge and that should cause the storm to slow down and turn
toward the northwest over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico.
Even though the steering pattern is well established, there are
still chances of center reformations, which could cause small but
important track changes. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
a little to the south of the previous one to account for the more
southern initial position and westward motion. Near the end of the
period, Laura's track could also be influenced by Tropical Storm
Marco, which is also forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico,
however the details of that interaction are highly uncertain
at this time.

Although the storm's structure is quite ragged at the moment, some
of the models do show Laura becoming better organized this
weekend and early next week due to a decrease in wind shear and
very warm waters. However, there is significant uncertainty on how
much the circulation will interact with the rugged islands of
Hispaniola and Cuba. If the storm is able to stay north of those
islands, some notable strengthening is possible as depicted by the
HWRF and HMON models. However, if the storm moves over the
islands, it might not strengthen at all until it passes through
that area. The bottom line is the intensity forecast is very
track dependent, which makes it more uncertain than normal. Given
that the new track shows more land interaction, this forecast shows
less strengthening in the short term, but is largely unchanged at
the longer forecast times.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the
Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday.
Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning and could
cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the
central Bahamas Sunday night.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move
near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.
However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts
to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and
the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests
there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the
forecast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 17.0N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 17.6N 65.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 18.4N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 19.5N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0000Z 20.8N 76.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/1200Z 22.1N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/0000Z 23.8N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 26/0000Z 26.5N 87.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 27/0000Z 29.2N 90.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...CENTER OF DISORGANIZED LAURA OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 65.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura. Tropical
Storm Warnings and Watches will likely be issued for portions of
central and eastern Cuba later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 65.5 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over
portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this morning,
near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight, and near or over
eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the
southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash
and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides
with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos
and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area area this morning through Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba,
and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 10...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

Corrected status at 96 and 120 h

Surface observations and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico
indicate that the center of Laura is currently over the Virgin
Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and the adjacent Caribbean waters.
Overall, the system has become a little better organized since the
last advisory, with strong convection forming not far from the
center to the east and southeast and a somewhat better defined
circulation. However, the central area of light winds is quite
large, and there is evidence of several vorticity centers rotating
around the mean storm center. Earlier scatterometer data
suggested that the maximum winds had decreased to 35 kt, and that is
the initial intensity for this advisory.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/18. There is no
change in the track forecast philosophy, as a subtropical ridge
over the central and western Atlantic is expected to expand
westward, causing Laura to move quickly west-northwestward for the
next 3 days or so. After that, the storm should turn northwestward
toward the western edge of the ridge over the northern Gulf coast.
While the dynamical models are in good agreement with the general
scenario, there is an unusual amount of cross track spread. The
track guidance is spread from the Florida Keys to the western end
of Cuba as the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, and the models
have potential landfall locations along the Gulf coast from the
Florida Panhandle to the middle Texas coast. One complicating
factor is the potential for interaction with Tropical Storm Marco,
although at this time the model guidance suggests the storms will
stay far enough apart to prevent direct interaction. The new
forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 hr, then
it is shifted a bit to the west after that time. The new track
lies near the various consensus models.

Laura is moving into an environment of light shear, and combined
with the somewhat improved organization it suggests the storm
should strengthen. However, the forecast track takes the center
over Hispaniola and then down the length of Cuba, which should at
least slow any intensification. This is reflected in the new
intensity forecast which shows slow strengthening. Over the Gulf of
Mexico, warm water and a likely favorable shear environment should
allow Laura to become a hurricane, a scenario now supported by much
of the guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the
Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday.
Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning and could
cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the
central Bahamas Sunday night, as well as portions of eastern
and central Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move
near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.
However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts
to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and
the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests
there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the
forecast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 17.6N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.2N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 19.1N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 20.3N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/1800Z 23.1N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/0600Z 24.6N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 26/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 31.0N 92.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...DISORGANIZED LAURA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEAR EASTERN PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 66.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura. Tropical
Storm Warnings and Watches will likely be issued for portions of
central and eastern Cuba later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 66.0 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near Puerto Rico
this morning, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight,
and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the
southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash
and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides
with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches are
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos
and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area this morning through Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba,
and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 66.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and
Granma.

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for St. Maarten, St.
Martin, St. Barthelemy, and the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de
Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and in the Florida Keys should monitor
the progress of Laura. Tropical storm warnings and additional
watches will likely be issued for portions of central and eastern
Cuba later today and tropical storm watches may be needed for the
Florida Keys later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 66.8 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near Puerto Rico
this morning, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight,
and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station located at Isla Culebrita
recently reported a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h). Another
Weatherflow station at Sandy Point on the Island of St. Croix
recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Monday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum
amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes.

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts
of 12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos,
southeast Bahamas and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area today through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba,
and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

Laura is producing considerable deep convection but the cloud
pattern remains disorganized. Surface observations indicate that
the center is still not well defined, but the San Juan WSR-88D radar
shows a mid-level center south of eastern Puerto Rico. The radar
also shows heavy rains spreading over that island. The initial
intensity estimate remains at 35 kt based on continuity. As noted in
previous discussions, the intensity forecast for Laura is dependent
on its future track. The official forecast, like the previous one,
moves the center over the land masses of Hispaniola and Cuba for the
next couple of days which should limit intensification at least
through the weekend. After Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico,
warm waters should lead to strengthening and the system is likely to
become a hurricane in 3 to 4 days. The official intensity forecast
is close to the consensus guidance. At this time the influence of
small tropical cyclone Marco, which should move over the
northwestern Gulf about a day or two before Laura, is not expected
to be significant. This could change in the coming days however.

The initial motion estimate remains quite uncertain and is near
280/16 kt. No significant changes are being made to the official
track forecast. Laura is likely to move on a generally
west-northwestward track on the periphery of a mid-tropospheric high
pressure area for the next few days. By day 4, the system should
turn northwestward while moving along the southwestern side of the
high. The official track forecast is only slightly north of the
dynamical model consensus at 36-72 hours and essentially the same as
the consensus otherwise. The GFS and its ensemble mean are
significantly farther west of the official forecast at days 3 and
beyond, which suggests relatively low confidence in the longer-range
track of Laura.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical storm
conditions are also expected along the northern coasts of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos and
southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall is
likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and flash and
urban flooding through Sunday, with widespread river flooding
possible in Puerto Rico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the
central Bahamas Sunday night, as well as portions of eastern
and central Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move
near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.
However, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of
Mexico and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts
to the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week.
Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to
the forecast during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 17.8N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 18.6N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1200Z 19.4N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0000Z 20.9N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 22.4N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 25/0000Z 23.7N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 25/1200Z 25.2N 86.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 27.9N 90.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 31.6N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1200 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA STRENGTHENS SOME...

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds in Tropical Storm Laura have increased to near 45
mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring mainly
in a band to the south of Vieques and eastern Puerto Rico.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 67.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch