EPAC: INVEST 98E

[cycloneye]

.

98E INVEST 200823 1200 13.3N 96.1W EPAC 25 NA

An area of low pressure appears to be forming a couple of hundred
miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week
while it moves slowly northwestward, near or parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, areas of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely in southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982020 08/23/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 37 43 50 55 57 56 57 57 58 57 56 56
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 37 43 50 55 57 56 57 57 58 57 48 35
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 29 28 26 24 21 20 19 17 23
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 17 14 14 17 18 15 23 32 39 43 39 33 26 20 23 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 3 3 0 5 7 4 4 6 7 6 8 7 2 3
SHEAR DIR 65 71 54 48 54 70 62 78 81 78 74 59 56 48 64 65 66
SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 29.7 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 159 160 160 159 159 160 160 159 157 158 161 163 159 150
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -51.5 -52.3 -51.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.5 -51.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 4 4 6 4 8 5 8 5 8 6 9 6 9 6
700-500 MB RH 71 72 76 79 82 85 85 82 80 81 84 83 80 77 80 82 79
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -3 -1 13 18 16 16 3 -2 -10 -15 -3 7 0 20 39 67 96
200 MB DIV 62 64 96 105 101 97 102 130 85 123 80 136 73 105 86 88 99
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 1 2 1 1 1 -1 -1 -3 -3
LAND (KM) 267 248 237 225 200 148 115 97 93 129 151 164 150 127 60 -13 -104
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.1 95.8 95.8 95.9 96.1 96.5 97.1 97.9 98.5 99.1 99.6 99.9 99.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 0 1 3 4 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 24 24 25 26 27 28 28 29 30 30 29 29 26 15

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 39. 42. 45. 47. 50.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -12. -18. -22. -23. -23. -22. -24. -25.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 12. 18. 25. 30. 32. 31. 32. 32. 33. 32. 31. 31.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 96.1

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 08/23/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 7.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.18 1.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.61 4.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.2% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 18.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 9.2% 2.6% 1.4% 0.3% 6.0% 28.6% 13.3%
Bayesian: 0.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Consensus: 0.3% 10.9% 7.2% 0.5% 0.1% 7.6% 15.8% 4.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 08/23/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a low pressure
area which formed earlier this morning a couple of hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is becoming better
defined. Conditions appear conducive for additional development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of the week while it moves slowly northwestward, near or
parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely
in southeastern Mexico and northern Central America during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982020 08/23/20 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 56 61 60 58 55 55 57 57 56 56
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 56 61 60 58 55 55 57 41 32 28
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 32 31 28 25 23 22 23 25 26
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 17 21 22 18 12 17 25 32 39 30 28 22 16 18 23 23
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 0 6 5 5 5 3 9 9 11 6 1 0 1
SHEAR DIR 77 64 67 75 79 79 87 80 81 76 55 38 33 54 72 90 102
SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.5 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 161 161 160 160 161 163 161 159 158 158 155 150 146 144
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 4 6 5 7 6 8 6 7 7 8 6 9 8 9
700-500 MB RH 72 76 79 81 82 87 82 82 80 83 80 80 79 81 79 81 77
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 9 11 13 12 10 8 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 4 25 22 19 14 16 -6 -5 -5 9 16 32 17 51 54 77 59
200 MB DIV 56 84 84 74 79 92 110 115 97 94 114 111 85 74 70 47 52
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -1 0 2 -3 -7 -10 -9 -4 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 214 190 169 141 109 64 36 57 82 117 127 99 55 11 -37 -80 -132
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.8 16.0 16.5 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 95.5 95.3 95.3 95.5 95.8 96.7 97.6 98.6 99.4 100.2 100.9 101.4 101.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3
HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 24 25 26 28 29 30 31 32 29 26 23 16 13 11

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 40. 42. 45. 46. 49.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -20. -21. -20. -19. -21. -22.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 8. 7. 3. -0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 31. 36. 35. 33. 30. 30. 32. 32. 31. 31.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 95.5

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 08/23/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 6.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.03 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.56 4.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 0.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.23 0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 17.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 2.5% 15.1% 9.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 0.1% 6.7% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 6.1% 10.8% 3.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 08/23/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

The circulation of a low pressure area located a couple of hundred
miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better
defined, but the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
currently limited. Conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next couple of days while it moves slowly
northwestward, near or parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash
flooding are likely in southeastern Mexico and northern Central
America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

TS Hernan?

98E INVEST 200824 1800 14.9N 95.5W EPAC 35 1006

[Yellow Evan]

Satellite images and satellite-derived wind data indicate that the
small low pressure system located very near the Gulf of Tehuantepec
is becoming better organized. This low is forecast to meander or
move slowly west-northwestward near the southern coast of Mexico,
and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next day or
two, assuming the center of circulation remains offshore.
Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash
flooding are likely in southeastern Mexico and northern Central
America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

24/1730 UTC 14.9N 95.4W T1.0/1.0 98E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982020 08/24/20 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 45 49 51 53 55 56 57 59 60 59 57 55 56
V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 38 31 28 27 32 33 34 36 37 32 29 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 36 30 28 27 29 27 26 25 25 24 26 26 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 19 19 17 19 24 31 33 35 29 25 27 27 31 25 24 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 8 9 4 3 4 4 7 3 5 6 2 8 4 3
SHEAR DIR 63 61 67 65 67 74 80 80 78 76 74 71 55 54 46 47 40
SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.9 30.2 29.5 28.5 28.3 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 160 158 156 152 152 160 163 162 158 160 165 158 148 147 149
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 7 6 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 9 8 12
700-500 MB RH 78 82 86 85 81 83 80 82 79 80 74 77 81 84 80 78 69
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 11 25 27 18 8 17 12 -6 -15 11 4 24 36 64 82 87 64
200 MB DIV 95 87 83 83 95 103 81 93 77 73 66 114 99 93 85 60 21
700-850 TADV -4 -8 -10 -8 -11 -4 0 4 6 7 6 0 -3 -6 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 110 92 46 16 -11 -66 -73 -11 74 131 176 161 86 -35 -164 -242 -323
LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.5 16.6 16.2 15.7 15.4 15.0 15.1 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 95.5 95.7 96.1 96.5 96.8 97.4 97.6 98.2 99.0 99.6 99.7 99.6 99.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 5 5 5 2 2 4 4 3 1 2 5 7 8 9 10
HEAT CONTENT 24 25 25 26 26 22 21 27 30 30 29 29 30 22 13 10 12

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. 37. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -8. -14. -18. -21. -22. -23. -24. -24. -26. -26.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 14. 17. 18. 20. 21. 22. 24. 25. 24. 22. 20. 21.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 95.5

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 08/24/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 6.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.06 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.63 5.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 2.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 1.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -5.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 24.4% 20.4% 14.1% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.1% 16.3% 4.9% 3.0% 0.4% 6.6% 6.4% 3.4%
Bayesian: 0.3% 5.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7%
Consensus: 4.1% 15.5% 8.9% 5.8% 3.7% 2.2% 2.2% 1.4%
DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 08/24/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

A small low pressure system located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec
continues to show signs of organization. This low is forecast to
meander or move slowly west-northwestward near the southern coast of
Mexico, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next
day or two, assuming the center of circulation remains offshore.
Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash
flooding are likely in southeastern Mexico and northern Central
America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

And another bust.

An elongated area of low pressure near the coast of south-central
Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system has become unlikely due to unfavorable
upper-level winds and close proximity to land. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely
in southeastern Mexico and northern Central America during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.