WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

94W INVEST 200825 1800 15.0N 135.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Finally the model storm now invest the GFS and the rest of the models are hyping.

WWJP27 RJTD 251800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 136E WEST SLOWLY.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.1N 134.6E, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE,
OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 252221Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST
94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 94W WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AND
TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 134.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 133.8E, APPROXIMATELY
338 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 260114Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD,
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
SCATTERED OVERHEAD. A 260114Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN
ELONGATED WIND FIELD AROUND THE LLC WITH A SMALL AREA OF 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS UNDER CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTHWEST. 94W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD WHILE
INTENSIFYING BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

It's the NAVGEM but wow look at that 150+ knots

[euro6208]

Strongest run so far....

No mercy...

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

Still way out but currently this looks like what would Bavi had been from its first forecast (i.e. a strike to South Korea) or it could be another North Korea strike, or might be Japan or China after all.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 131.8E, APPROXIMATELY
480 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261222Z METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
94W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT
48-60 HOURS AND INTENSIFYING BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD WITH CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 270600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 15N 132E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2N 131.4E TO 17.1N 129.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 270600Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 131.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N 132.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 131.3E, APPROXIMATELY
741 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270439Z ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD, SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME POCKETS
OF FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 TO
31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO
25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 94W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE INTENSIFYING OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD WITH
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280900Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

[doomhaMwx]

94W is gonna turn out to be a large storm as it lingers over the PHL Sea during the next few days as per the global models. While the upper-level environment is expected to become more favorable as 94W lifts north, RI (depicted by GFS) will partly depend if it manages to build a decent inner core, which could take quite some time for large-sized systems. The support from a lot of ECMWF ens members on a strong typhoon near the Ryukyus is hard to ignore though.

[euro6208]

WWJP27 RJTD 270600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 15N 132E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Come on JMA. As the RSMC of the basin, you need to do more.

Cannot just upgrade and upgrade. You look silly.

Need more discussion and not leaving us in the dark.

Imagine if NHC doesn't do any discussions on Laura?

[euro6208]

[Hayabusa]

TD
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 27 August 2020

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 27 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N16°50' (16.8°)
E131°50' (131.8°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 28 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°35' (16.6°)
E130°35' (130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

[Grifforzer]

WWJP27 RJTD 270600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 15N 132E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Come on JMA. As the RSMC of the basin, you need to do more.

Cannot just upgrade and upgrade. You look silly.

Need more discussion and not leaving us in the dark.

Imagine if NHC doesn't do any discussions on Laura?

they do give more information once the system has RSMC advisories.

-----------------------------

WTPQ30 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 16.8N 131.8E

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

A TD IS LOCATED AT 16.8N, 131.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC.

3.TRACK FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.

[Hayabusa]