WPAC: HAISHEN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#301 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:45 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Major models still have some deepening in the next 24 hours and JMA still calling for a 915 mb 110 kt/violent peak in the same timeframe, I don't know if that's even likely to happen.

Yeah that’s not happening. I guess the reason the models still show deepening is because they’re picking up on favorable conditions throughout the next 24 hours, and they’re unable to predict or model an EWRC. Haishen has avoided one for quite some time, but it won’t be long before it begins.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#302 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:28 pm

Hint of ERC

Image

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#303 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:53 pm

lel
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#304 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:58 pm


Haha not happening :spam:
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#305 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:59 pm

Well I guess JTWC could still upgrade at 0z...
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#306 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:06 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Well I guess JTWC could still upgrade at 0z...

It would be such a JTWC thing to do to upgrade this to 140 kt after three previous advisories with Cat 5-worthy presentation.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#307 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:08 pm

aspen wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Well I guess JTWC could still upgrade at 0z...

It would be such a JTWC thing to upgrade this to do to 140 kt after three previous advisories with Cat 5-worthy presentation.

They will set the best track at 140kts, then 10 minutes later "revise" it to 135 again lol
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#308 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:23 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 050020

A. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN)

B. 05/0000Z

C. 23.98N

D. 132.01E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
04/1849Z 23.43N 132.32E SSMI
04/1921Z 23.42N 132.45E SSMS
04/1945Z 23.45N 132.37E GPMI
04/2033Z 23.40N 132.30E SSMS


ELIAS
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#309 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:45 pm

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#310 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:49 pm

Going downhill.
11W HAISHEN 200905 0000 24.0N 132.0E WPAC 125 929
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#311 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:51 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Going downhill.
11W HAISHEN 200905 0000 24.0N 132.0E WPAC 125 929


That's expected.

EWRC clearly underway - Haishen starting to look like a Cinnamon roll.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#312 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:53 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Going downhill.
11W HAISHEN 200905 0000 24.0N 132.0E WPAC 125 929

Time to wait until post analysis for a potential upgrade. Btw this is a little OT but does anyone know when the 2019 final best track will be released? I think they released 2018's about this time last year right?
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#313 Postby Highteeld » Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:55 pm

Going downhill fast
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#314 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:55 pm

Here comes that big capturing trough.

Image

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#315 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:58 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Time to wait until post analysis for a potential upgrade. Btw this is a little OT but does anyone know when the 2019 final best track will be released? I think they released 2018's about this time last year right?

They released it October 2 last year.
viewtopic.php?t=120640
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#316 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:04 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Time to wait until post analysis for a potential upgrade. Btw this is a little OT but does anyone know when the 2019 final best track will be released? I think they released 2018's about this time last year right?

They released it October 2 last year.
viewtopic.php?t=120640

Ah I was a month off. Also where do you get those best track updates? Sorry I'm still kinda new at this.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#317 Postby NotoSans » Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:12 pm

I’d actually drop the intensity to 130kt at 00Z given the decrease in Dvorak numbers (down to FT6.0) and warming convection. Need to wait for another AMSU pass to verify this intensity.

That said, Haishen has likely peaked and is beginning to weaken. Personal peak intensity estimate is 140kt with a central pressure of 915mb, but 135kt is also justifiable.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#318 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:16 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Time to wait until post analysis for a potential upgrade. Btw this is a little OT but does anyone know when the 2019 final best track will be released? I think they released 2018's about this time last year right?

They released it October 2 last year.
viewtopic.php?t=120640

Ah I was a month off. Also where do you get those best track updates? Sorry I'm still kinda new at this.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc202 ... ckfile.txt
From that link but I think there are some alternative links too
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#319 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:20 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:They released it October 2 last year.
viewtopic.php?t=120640

Ah I was a month off. Also where do you get those best track updates? Sorry I'm still kinda new at this.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc202 ... ckfile.txt
From that link but I think there are some alternative links too

Thanks
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#320 Postby NotoSans » Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:07 pm

A late-arriving SMAP pass at 0848Z estimates 1-min sustained winds at 145KT.

A blend of SMAP, AMSU, as well as subjective and objective Dvorak data would yield a peak intensity of 140KT.
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