ATL: OMAR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[us89]

Thanks to the Gulf Stream, Omar is still hanging on as a TS despite almost 50 kt of shear.

[plasticup]

Bermuda Radar:

[wx98]

Shear taking care of this:

5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 2
Location: 36.1°N 65.7°W
Moving: E at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[us89]

NHC is holding at a 35/1005 depression for now, but has it as a naked swirl in 12 hours...which to be honest, is more or less what it is now

[wx98]

He’s a fighter for sure. Even the NHC seems surprised as he continues generating convection.

[us89]

Even the NHC seems surprised as he continues generating convection.

So much so that they have him as a depression for another 24 hours.

[gfsperpendicular]

Still hanging in there, but he's going to run out of gulf stream soon at this rate

[EquusStorm]

Omar has definitely earned the name it took at this point, way more tenacious than Kyle ever was

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zEuro seems to break off a piece of Omar and send it back towards the east coast, May have to watch for that

[Buck]

The 12zEuro seems to break off a piece of Omar and send it back towards the east coast, May have to watch for that

That's some 2004-2005 type craziness that would be fun to track.

[Buck]

...OMAR MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY...
5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 3
Location: 35.4°N 60.1°W
Moving: ESE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[AnnularCane]

I never thought, until maybe today, that Nana would have the last advisory issued before Omar did. Tenacious little thing.

[us89]

Incredibly, Omar is still a tropical depression for the 11 am update, but may not last much longer

Omar produced minimal deep convection from around 2100 UTC
yesterday through 1200 UTC this morning. Since that time, a new
burst of convection has developed close enough to the depression's
center to justify continuing advisories for the moment. If this
convection dissipates soon, like a few small overnight bursts did,
Omar will likely be declared post-tropical this afternoon due to a
lack of organized convection.

[ElectricStorm]

Incredibly, Omar is still a tropical depression for the 11 am update, but may not last much longer

Omar produced minimal deep convection from around 2100 UTC
yesterday through 1200 UTC this morning. Since that time, a new
burst of convection has developed close enough to the depression's
center to justify continuing advisories for the moment. If this
convection dissipates soon, like a few small overnight bursts did,
Omar will likely be declared post-tropical this afternoon due to a
lack of organized convection.

Omar's mad that he became this storm instead of Nana so he's letting us all know he's not going down without a fight

[EquusStorm]

And he's earned himself yet another advisory cycle. Amazing.

[AnnularCane]

Am I crazy or did Omar actually get a little stronger today? Oddly I didn't notice that until now.

[EquusStorm]

Yeah, back up to 30kt from 25kt. Under like 50-60kt of northerly shear. Dunno how

[AnnularCane]

Incredibly, Omar is still a tropical depression for the 11 am update, but may not last much longer

Omar produced minimal deep convection from around 2100 UTC
yesterday through 1200 UTC this morning. Since that time, a new
burst of convection has developed close enough to the depression's
center to justify continuing advisories for the moment. If this
convection dissipates soon, like a few small overnight bursts did,
Omar will likely be declared post-tropical this afternoon due to a
lack of organized convection.

Omar's mad that he became this storm instead of Nana so he's letting us all know he's not going down without a fight

Nana had to deal with mountains though, so he shouldn't be too mad.

[us89]

Omar just refuses to go away.

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020

Omar continues to hang on as a tropical depression. The cyclone is
producing a small area of thunderstorms to the south of the center,
enough to continue writing advisories on this system for now. The
initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data.
Omar has been more resistant than expected to the ongoing northerly
wind shear, but the models insist that the continued shear, dry
air, and cooler waters should cause it to decay to a remnant low
this evening or early Saturday and dissipate entirely by Saturday
night.

Interesting they’re saying “for now” in the discussion. Maybe in post-season reanalysis they’ll determine he degenerated into a remnant low earlier?

[TheStormExpert]

Just die already!!!