ATL: NANA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
SOUTH OF JAMAICA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE
OFFSHORE ROATAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 77.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern coast of
Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala-Honduras
border, including Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northern Honduras
* Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of Guatemala,
Belize, and the southern Yucatan Peninsula later today.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 16.1 North, longitude 77.5 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the
system will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Additional development is expected today and on Wednesday, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could form at any time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km),
mainly northeast through northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible over
the northern portions of Honduras beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Jamaica, and will continue into Wednesday morning.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
investigating the vigorous tropical disturbance located south of
Jamaica that the NHC has been tracking the past few days across the
Caribbean Sea. An earlier report of 35 kt winds this morning from
ship MAOR4 is the basis for the 35-kt initial intensity on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen. (PTC-16)

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/16 kt, based mainly
on past scatterometer surface wind data and passive microwave
satellite fix data. A strong deep-layer to the north of the system
is expected to build slowly westward over the next few days,
keeping the disturbance moving in a general west-northwestward to
westward direction through 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the
west-southwest shortly thereafter when the system will be inland
over Central America. The NHC official forecast track lies close
to a blend of the simple consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the
corrected-consensus model HCCA.

The disturbance has already developed an upper-level anticyclone,
with outflow only restricted in the northeastern quadrant due to
northeasterly shear of about 15 kt. This modest northeasterly to
easterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually subside to
less than 10 kt by 48 hours, which should allow for at least some
slow but steady strengthening, given that sea-surface temperatures
(SST) will be 29.5-30.5 deg C along the track. Occasional intrusions
of dry mid-level air might hinder development for the next 24-36
hours, but model guidance shows that the atmosphere is expected to
moisten thereafter and right up until landfall. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the consensus of the intensity
guidance through 24 hours, and then is a little above the consensus
at 36 h and 48 h due to the very warm waters, moistening atmosphere,
and low shear conditions. The statistical SHIPS guidance suggests
that the cyclone could reach hurricane strength just prior to
landfall. This alternate scenario will be evaluated on the next
advisory cycle.

Due to the system's expected proximity to the north coast of
Honduras and Roatan Island, a Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for those areas. Additional watches and possible warnings
will likely be required later today for Guatemala, Belize, and the
southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 16.1N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 02/0000Z 16.4N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 02/1200Z 16.6N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 16.7N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Nana Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
1205 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM NANA...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the
potential tropical cyclone has become Tropical Storm Nana. The
maximum winds are estimated to be 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. A special advisory will be issued to update the forecast
within the hour.

SUMMARY OF 1205 PM AST...1605 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 77.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Blake/Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Nana Special Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
vigorous disturbance south of Jamaica this morning has found that
the system has a well-defined, closed circulation center. The
aircraft also measured 60 kt at 925 mb in the northeastern quadrant
and reliable SFMR surface winds of 45 kt. Based on these data, the
system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nana, the 14th named
tropical storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/14 kt, No
significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. A
strong deep-layer to the north of the system is expected to build
slowly westward over the next few days, keeping the disturbance
moving in a general west-northwestward to westward direction through
48 hours, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest shortly
thereafter when the system will be inland over Central America. The
NHC official forecast track lies close to a blend of the simple
consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected-consensus model
HCCA.

Nana has developed a well-defined upper-level anticyclone, with
outflow gradually improving in all quadrants. Modest northeasterly
to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually subside to
less than 10 kt by 48 hours, which should allow for at least some
slow but steady strengthening, given that sea-surface temperatures
(SST) will be 29.5-30.5 deg C along the track. Some dry air
intrusions might hinder development for the next 24 hours or so, but
the global and regional models still indicate that the atmosphere
will moisten thereafter, and continue to moisten right up until
landfall. Based on the higher initial intensity and the mostly
favorable environmental conditions expected after 24 hours, the peak
forecast intensity has been increased to 65 kt at 48 hours, just
prior to landfall.

Due to the Nana's expected proximity to Belize in 48 hours, a
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that country. Additional
watches and possible warnings will likely be required later today
for Guatemala and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm Nana is now forecast to be a hurricane as it
approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala,
Belize and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this
storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall
causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1700Z 16.6N 77.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 16.6N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.7N 82.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nana Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

...NANA MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 79.3W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM E OF LIMON HONDURAS
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula from Puerto Costa
Maya southward to Chetumal. The government of Guatemala has issued
a Tropical Storm Watch for the Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northern Honduras
* Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras
* Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* Belize

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 79.3 West. Nana is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast
track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras
on Wednesday and likely be approaching the coast of Belize on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nana could
become a hurricane just prior to landfall on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center, mainly northeast through northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch areas by late Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
3 to 6 inches in Belize, and 2 to 4 inches across northern Honduras
and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintan Roo.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Jamaica, and will continue into Wednesday morning.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

Although convection has waned somewhat since the previous advisory
due to mid-level dry air entrainment, Nana still has enough deep
convection over and surrounding the low-level center to keep the
intensity at 45 kt. Upper-level outflow has continued to improve,
with the associated anticyclone becoming more symmetrical. Another
reconnaissance mission is scheduled for this evening.

The initial motion estimate is 275/16 kt. There are no significant
changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. A pronounced
deep-layer to the north of Nana is forecast to remain intact and
even build westward over the next few days, keeping Nana moving in a
general westward direction for the next 36 hours or so. Thereafter,
the aforementioned ridge is expected to build west-southwestward
across southern Mexico, driving the cyclone west-southwestward as
well across northern Central America. The new NHC forecast track is
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of
the simple consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected-
consensus models NOAA-HCCA and FSSE.

The current northeasterly 15 kt of vertical wind shear and dry air
intrusions should inhibit development for next 24 hours or so.
However, the GFS and ECMWF models both forecast the shear to
gradually decrease during the next 48 hours, becoming near 5 kt by
36 hours. The lower vertical shear, coupled with the already
impressive outflow pattern, sea-surface temperatures of 29.5-30.5
deg C, and a moistening mid-level environment should allow for
gradual strengthening for the next 24 hours, followed by more
significant intensification thereafter, which will continue right up
until landfall occurs. The NHC official intensity forecast is a
blend of the simple consensus intensity model IVCN, and the
corrected-consensus models NOAA-HCCA and FSSE.

A Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued
for the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and the
Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala, respectively.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm Nana is now forecast to be a hurricane as it
approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala,
Belize, and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this
storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall
causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 16.8N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 17.1N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 17.3N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 17.2N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 16.9N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/0600Z 16.5N 91.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Nana Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

...NANA MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 80.1W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM ENE OF LIMON HONDURAS
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of Belize

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal
* Entire coast of Belize

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Guatemala border
* Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras
* Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 80.1 West. Nana is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast
track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras
on Wednesday and likely be approaching the coast of Belize
Wednesday night and early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nana
could become a hurricane just prior to landfall early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center, mainly northeast through northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area beginning Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area by late Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area on Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
3 to 6 inches in Belize, and 2 to 4 inches across northern Honduras
and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Jamaica, and will continue into Wednesday morning.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nana Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS NANA A LITTLE
STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 80.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM ENE OF LIMON HONDURAS
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of Belize

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal
* Entire coast of Belize

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Guatemala border
* Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras
* Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 80.9 West. Nana is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A westward or
west-southwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday.
On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the
coast of Honduras on Wednesday and likely be approaching the coast
of Belize Wednesday night and early Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph
(95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected,
and Nana is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday or Wednesday
night before it reaches the coast of Belize.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in Belize by late Wednesday, with hurricane conditions likely
over a portion of the area Wednesday night and early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in
Mexico and Guatemala late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area in Honduras on Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches in Belize and northern Guatemala. 2 to 4 inches of
rain is expected across northern Honduras and the southeast portion
of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo.

SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and will spread
along the coasts of Honduras and Belize on Wednesday and Wednesday
night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

Deep convection redeveloped over the center of Nana during the late
afternoon and recent microwave imagery has revealed a small,
well-defined low-level eye-like feature, and convective banding
around the southwestern portion of the circulation. An Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that has provided a couple of
center fixes within the past hour or two has measured a peak
850-mb flight-level wind of 62 kt, and believable SFMR winds of
around 50 kt, which supports an initial intensity of 50 kt.
Data from aircraft indicated that the minimum pressure is around
999 mb.

Nana is moving westward or 275/16 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to
the north of the tropical cyclone should steer it westward over the
next day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build
west-southwestward and the dynamical models indicate that this will
cause Nana to turn west-southwestward by Thursday. On this track,
Nana is expected to approach the coast of Belize late Wednesday
night or early Thursday, and move inland over Belize and Guatemala
later that day. The track guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario but has trended slightly southward, which seems reasonable
given that Nana is vertically deep and is more likely to feel the
deep-layered east-northeasterly flow. The new NHC track forecast is
close to the FSU Superensemble and the HFIP corrected consensus
model.

The tropical storm is currently within an environment of light to
moderate northeasterly shear. This shear does not seem to be strong
enough to prevent strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, and
the NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of
intensification during that time. This is in agreement with the
latest SHIPS model output and the HCCA and HWRF models, and calls
for Nana to become a hurricane within 24 hours. The shear is
forecast to become more northerly just before landfall, and this
is likely to slow the intensification process. Rapid weakening is
expected after landfall, and the low-level circulation is expected
to dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by day 3.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm Nana is forecast to be a hurricane as it
approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala,
Belize, and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this
storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall
causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 17.0N 80.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 17.1N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0000Z 16.5N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1200Z 16.2N 93.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nana Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020

...NANA CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 82.7W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ENE OF LIMON HONDURAS
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of Belize

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal
* Entire coast of Belize

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Guatemala border
* Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras
* Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 82.7 West. Nana is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected today. A
westward or west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and
Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but
north of the coast of Honduras today and likely be approaching the
coast of Belize tonight and early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected, and Nana is forecast to become a
hurricane later today or tonight before it reaches the coast of
Belize.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in Belize by tonight, with hurricane conditions likely over a
portion of the area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in Mexico and
Guatemala by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area in Honduras today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday night: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches near the northern Honduras coast, southern and central
Belize, northern Guatemala, and the northern portion of the Mexican
state of Chiapas. 2 to 4 inches in the southeast portion of the
Mexican state of Quintana Roo.

SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and will spread
along the coasts of Honduras and Belize today and tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nana Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020

...NANA CONTINUING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 84.6W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Belize has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala
border.

The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Guatemala.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the
Belize-Guatemala border.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico
border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico
border
* Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Guatemala border
* Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands of Honduras

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning may be issued for Isla Roatan and the Bay
Islands of Honduras later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 84.6 West. Nana is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected today. A
westward or west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and
Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north
of the coast of Honduras today, and the center should make landfall
on the coast of Belize tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected, and Nana is forecast to become a
hurricane tonight before it reaches the coast of Belize. Weakening
is expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in Belize tonight and early Thursday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by tonight. Tropical Storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Belize, Guatemala,
and Mexico by tonight, with hurricane conditions possible in the
Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area in Honduras, including Isla Roatan
and the Bay Islands, today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Friday:

Northern coast of Honduras: 1 to 3 inches.

Belize, Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas and Tabasco: 3
to 6 inches, isolated totals of 8 inches.

The southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo: 2 to 4
inches.

The eastern portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca: 6
to 8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and will spread
along the coasts of Honduras and Belize today and tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020

Ongoing northerly shear has caused the satellite appearance of Nana
to degrade a little since the last advisory, with the low-level
center located near the northern edge of an asymmetric convective
burst. Reports from an NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum winds remain near 50 kt and the central pressure
is near 998 mb.

The initial motion is westward or 270/15 kt. A low- to mid-level
ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to keep steering Nana
toward the west, or maybe just south of west, for the remainder of
the cyclone's life. The new forecast track, which is changed only
slightly from the previous forecast, calls for the cyclone to pass
north of the Bay Islands in about 12 h, then make landfall over
Belize in 18-24 h. After that, a generally westward motion is
expected until the cyclone dissipates over southeastern Mexico.

The latest indications from the large-scale models are that light
northerly shear should persist over Nana until landfall. However,
the guidance is in good agreement that strengthening should occur
before landfall. The new intensity forecast follows this trend,
however, it is a little above the upper end of the intensity
guidance. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, it is
expected that Nana will reach hurricane intensity about the time it
makes landfall in Belize. After landfall, the cyclone should
steadily weaken until it dissipates by the 60 h forecast time.

Observations from the NOAA aircraft indicate that Nana remains a
rather small tropical cyclone, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending 60 n mi or less from the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nana is expected to bring hurricane conditions and dangerous
storm surge tonight to portions of the coast of Belize, and a
hurricane warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning areas in Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico by tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12
inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and
portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 17.1N 84.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0000Z 16.6N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1200Z 16.5N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nana Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020

...NANA CONTINUING WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF BELIZE...
...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 85.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the
Belize-Guatemala border.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico
border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico
border
* Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Guatemala border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 85.9 West. Nana is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a westward or
west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Thursday. On the
forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of
Honduras and the Bay Islands this evening, and the center should
make landfall on the coast of Belize tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
While Nana has not strengthened during the past several hours,
strengthening is expected before landfall, and Nana could become a
hurricane by the time the center reaches the coast of Belize.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in Belize tonight and early Thursday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Belize, Guatemala,
and Mexico by tonight, with hurricane conditions possible in the
Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands beginning this
evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in Honduras.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Friday:

Northern coast of Honduras: 1 to 3 inches

Belize, Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas and Tabasco: 3
to 6 inches, isolated totals of 8 inches

The southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo: 2 to 4
inches..

The eastern portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca: 6
to 8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and
mudslides

SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and will spread
along the coasts of Honduras and Belize tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020

Nana continues to feel the effects of about 15 kt of northerly
vertical shear, as the low-level center is located near the
northern edge of the main convective mass. Data from the last Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Mission showed that the flight-level
winds at 850 mb were a little lower than earlier. However,
incomplete SFMR data suggested surface winds near 50 kt, and the
aircraft reported that the central pressure is near 999 mb. The
initial intensity is held at 50 kt, although this could be a little
generous.

The initial motion is westward or 270/13 kt. A low- to mid-level
ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to keep steering Nana
toward the west, or maybe just south of west, for the remainder of
the cyclone's life. The new forecast track, which again is changed
only slightly from the previous forecast, calls for the cyclone to
pass north of the Bay Islands this evening, then make landfall over
central or southern Belize in about 12-18 h.

Nana is running out of time to strengthen before landfall, and
between that and the ongoing shear none of the intensity guidance
forecasts it to become a hurricane before landfall. However, any
strong convective burst could spin up the cyclone, and since the
bursts have been frequent today the intensity forecast calls for
Nana to strengthen to near hurricane strength at landfall. After
landfall, steady weakening is expected. Several of the global
models now show the remnants of Nana emerging over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec in 48-60 h. However, these models continue to forecast
dissipation even over water, so the forecast dissipation time is
unchanged since the previous advisory.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nana could bring hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge
tonight to portions of the coast of Belize, and a hurricane warning
is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning areas in Belize, the Bay Islands, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12
inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and
portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 17.0N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 16.8N 87.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 16.6N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0600Z 16.4N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z 16.2N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nana Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020

...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES NANA
HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 87.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the
Belize-Guatemala border.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico
border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico
border
* Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Guatemala border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nana was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 87.5 West. Nana is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a westward or
west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Thursday. On the
forecast track, Nana will make landfall along the coast of Belize
within the Hurricane Warning area overnight, and move inland over
Belize and Guatemala on Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph
(120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little additional change in strength
is expected before Nana makes landfall. Rapid weakening is
expected on Thursday as Nana moves farther inland.

Nana is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions and tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Belize through early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area in Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico through
early Thursday, with hurricane conditions possible in the
Hurricane Watch area overnight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands for a few more hours.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
Honduras.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Friday:

Northern coast of Honduras: 2 to 4 inches

Belize: 4 to 8 inches, isolated totals of 10 inches

Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas and Tabasco: 3 to 6
inches, isolated totals of 8 inches

The southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo: 2 to 4
inches

The eastern portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca: 6
to 8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches

These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting the coasts of Honduras
and Belize, and the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Hurricane Nana Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020

After the center of Nana nearly became exposed during the late
afternoon, a new burst of convection developed near and to the
south of the center which has resulted in strengthening this
evening. Very recently received data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft has indicated that Nana has become a
hurricane. The plane has measured a peak 700-mb flight-level
wind of 72 kt to the north of the center, and peak SFMR winds
of 62 kt earlier this evening. These data support an initial
intensity of 65 kt, making Nana the fifth hurricane of the 2020
Atlantic basin hurricane season. Since Nana should make landfall
along the coast of Belize within the next several hours, little
additional strengthening is expected before the center crosses the
coast. Rapid weakening will occur after landfall, and the new 12
through 36 hour intensity forecast reflects this. The low-level
center is likely to dissipate over mountainous terrain within 48
hours, if not sooner.

Nana is moving just south of due west at about 265/14 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of Nana should keep it moving on a
west-southwestward motion during the next day or so. The guidance
enveloped has shifted slightly southward and the new NHC track
forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge will spread
onshore along portions of the coast of Belize within the Hurricane
Warning area through early Thursday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning areas in Belize, the Bay Islands, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through early Thursday.

3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12
inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and
portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 17.0N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 16.8N 89.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0000Z 16.4N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1200Z 16.0N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that Nana is weakening rapidly as it
crosses northern Guatemala. There are no available observations
near the center, so the initial intensity estimate of 40 kt is
rather uncertain. Continued weakening is expected, and Nana is
likely to be a remnant low pressure area by the time it reaches the
Gulf of Tehuantepec in about 24 h. The global models continue to
forecast conditions that are not conducive for Nana to
re-intensify, so the intensity forecast calls for the remnant low
to dissipate by 48 h even though it will be over water.

The initial motion is 260/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of Nana should keep it moving on a west to west-southwestward
track during the remainder of the cyclone's life. The new official
forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the
various consensus models,


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue near the center of Nana
for a few more hours.

2. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 3 to 6
inches could result in flash flooding in Guatemala and portions of
southeastern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 16.4N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 16.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1200Z 15.4N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 14.9N 96.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Nana Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
400 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that Nana continues to weaken over
land, with only a small area of convection remaining near and to
the south of the low-level center. It is estimated that Nana has
weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression, although as with the last
advisory there are no observations near the cyclone's core and thus
the estimate is rather uncertain. Continued weakening is expected,
and Nana is likely to be a remnant low pressure area by the time it
reaches the Gulf of Tehuantepec in 12-24 h. The global models
continue to forecast conditions that are not conducive for Nana to
re-intensify, so the intensity forecast calls for the remnant low
to dissipate by 48 h even though it will be over water. There is a
possibility that a low pressure area will re-form over the
Pacific in association with the remnants of Nana late this weekend
or early next week, but the chances of re-generation to a tropical
cyclone appear low at this time.

The initial motion is 255/12 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of Nana should keep it moving on a westward to
west-southwestward track during the remainder of the cyclone's life.
The new official forecast track is again similar to the previous
track and lies near the various consensus models,


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 3 to 6
inches could result in flash flooding in Guatemala and portions of
southeastern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 16.0N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/0600Z 15.5N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1800Z 15.0N 95.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 14.7N 97.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Remnants Of Nana Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020

Satellite and surface data indicate that Nana's low-level
circulation has dissipated over the mountainous terrain of
southwestern Guatemala. Therefore, this will be the final NHC
advisory on this system. The mid-level remnants are expected to
emerge over the eastern Pacific waters near the Gulf of Tehuantepec
later tonight or early Friday. The global models indicate that
strong upper-level northeasterly flow will prevent re-development
over the next couple of days. However, this system could produce
locally heavy rainfall along portions of the southeastern and
southern coasts of Mexico over the weekend. Additional information
on the remnants on Nana can be found in the eastern Pacific basin
Tropical Weather Outlook. This product can be found under AWIPS
header MIATWOEP, WMO header ABPZ20 KNHC, and on the web at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOEP+shtml/


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 15.6N 92.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown