ATL: RENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 93, 2020090612, , BEST, 0, 145N, 183W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039, SPAWNINVEST, al742020 to al932020,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was for this tropical wave.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121286

[tiger_deF]

While there's been a lull in ACE generation, I feel like people are absolutely underestimating (based on blog activity the past few days) both this invest and 92L. We are nearing the climotological peak, conditions ahead are ripe, and both these invests have serious surface level vorticity

[aspen]

This looks like it already has some good rotation. The models have expected quick development of 93L, so let’s see if they’re right this time.

[Visioen]

Looking good.

[cycloneye]

2. Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located just
off the coast of western Africa. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form within the next couple of days while it moves
generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests
in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system
as gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall is likely there Monday
night and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[GeneratorPower]

Looking good.

https://i.imgur.com/XEcBFFB.gif

Looking stationary.

[gatorcane]

Looks good as the sun sets. Saved loop:

[ClarCari]

Since 92L is pushing thru dry air till tomorrow, this system may have a shot a developing a little earlier.

These things have been coming in racing pairs since Josephine and Kyle. The Atlantic has produced more competition than a high school track meet

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms continue to steadily increase and are
showing signs of organization in association with a low pressure
system located just west of Senegal. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form within the next day or so while the system moves
generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests
in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system
as gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely there Monday
night and Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch or Warning could be
required for the islands by early Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[aspen]

Showers and thunderstorms continue to steadily increase and are
showing signs of organization in association with a low pressure
system located just west of Senegal. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form within the next day or so while the system moves
generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests
in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system
as gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely there Monday
night and Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch or Warning could be
required for the islands by early Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

“A Tropical Storm Watch or Warning could be required for the islands by early Monday”

Maybe we’ll get PTC-18 at the 5am advisory tomorrow.

[us89]

Maybe we’ll get PTC-18 at the 5am advisory tomorrow.

Unless it's already a TD or TS by then, of course

[CrazyC83]

Maybe we’ll get PTC-18 at the 5am advisory tomorrow.

Unless it's already a TD or TS by then, of course

Cabo Verde has the final say since they would be issuing the warning (on the advice of NHC). It would become PTC 18 at that point.

[Aric Dunn]

They probably should have upgraded this as well given the ascat pass and well now the convection blow up.

[us89]

Almost looks better than TD 17 right now...

ASCAT from earlier suggested the center was a little elongated, but based on the current convective trends I would not be surprised to see this get classified at 5 AM.

[Aric Dunn]

well according to the 00z GFS.. 93L will be the longest lived TC on record by a lot lol..

[CrazyC83]

It looks like a TC to me...I'd be calling Cabo Verde to see if they want a watch, then start advisories now with a Special Advisory on TD 18...

[Fancy1001]

well according to the 00z GFS.. 93L will be the longest lived TC on record by a lot lol..

I doubt that. It would need to live over a month to beat Johns 31 day record. If you are just referring to the Atlantic, the record is 28 days with the 1899 San Ciríaco hurricane. 93l would need to survive an additional 13 days past what is shown in the model to take the Atlantic record. I'm not saying it isn't possible, just extremely extremely unlikely.

[Aric Dunn]

well according to the 00z GFS.. 93L will be the longest lived TC on record by a lot lol..

I doubt that. It would need to live over a month to beat Johns 31 day record. If you are just referring to the Atlantic, the record is 28 days with the 1899 San Ciríaco hurricane. 93l would need to survive an additional 13 days past what is shown in the model to take the Atlantic record. I'm not saying it isn't possible, just extremely extremely unlikely.

First off.. lets stick with the atlantic and modern realistic data..

Secondly. I was extrapolating the motion at the end of the run.. how far south and the ridging building in..

it all points to surviving long after the GFS ended.

of course it was all laughable to begin with ... but..

[Fancy1001]

well according to the 00z GFS.. 93L will be the longest lived TC on record by a lot lol..

I doubt that. It would need to live over a month to beat Johns 31 day record. If you are just referring to the Atlantic, the record is 28 days with the 1899 San Ciríaco hurricane. 93l would need to survive an additional 13 days past what is shown in the model to take the Atlantic record. I'm not saying it isn't possible, just extremely extremely unlikely.

First off.. lets stick with the atlantic and modern realistic data..

Secondly. I was extrapolating the motion at the end of the run.. how far south and the ridging building in..

it all points to surviving long after the GFS ended.

of course it was all laughable to begin with ... but..

If you want to use a more modern example, ginger lasted 27 days in 1971, and Nadine lasted 22 days in 2012.

[Aric Dunn]

I doubt that. It would need to live over a month to beat Johns 31 day record. If you are just referring to the Atlantic, the record is 28 days with the 1899 San Ciríaco hurricane. 93l would need to survive an additional 13 days past what is shown in the model to take the Atlantic record. I'm not saying it isn't possible, just extremely extremely unlikely.

First off.. lets stick with the atlantic and modern realistic data..

Secondly. I was extrapolating the motion at the end of the run.. how far south and the ridging building in..

it all points to surviving long after the GFS ended.

of course it was all laughable to begin with ... but..

If you want to use a more modern example, ginger lasted 27 days in 1971, and Nadine lasted 22 days in 2012.

we can exclude Ginger.. it was part of project storm fury.

Nadine is the only notable modern verifiable satellite era TC.