ATL: RENE - Remnants - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Rene has some consolidating work to do; kind of a catch-22 where water temperatures don't become more than mildly warm until shear picks up. Still should be time for hurricane status briefly but if it hasn't gotten its act together in 24 hours I suspect NHC will downtrend intensity forecast.

[us89]

The chances of not getting to the Greeks is little to none at this point.

I don't think it is a question of getting to the Greek's, it is a question of whether this year can beat 2005's 28 storms.

Regardless of whether or not we have a new record for named storms, this year doesn't hold a candle to 2005 in terms of storm intensity and human impact

I sort of disagree. By this point in 2005 we had:
Cat 1 x1, Cat 2 x1, Cat 4 x1, Cat 5 x2.

In 2020 we have:
Cat 1 x4, Cat 4 x1 (and this a CONUS landfall, arguably a Cat 5)

So the same number of hurricanes, one monster storm as a CONUS landfall. Obviously 2005 was worse. But not enormously so. 2005's real monsters (Rita and Wilma) came later in the season.

Another thing about 2020 that keeps getting lost: not all cat 1 hurricanes are alike. True, Marco and Nana barely got there, and Isaias was a messy storm ... but remember how Hanna looked at landfall? Only reason she didn't strengthen above 90 mph was that she ran out of water. With just a few more hours over water she would have easily hit cat 2 and could have made a run at major status.

That said, I'd say 2005 and 2020 are only similar seasons if you exclude July 2005. Two cat 4+ storms before August is simply too much for this season to beat unless the basin pumps out a whole lot of long-lived majors in Sept/Oct. I'd want to see a definite cat 5 from this year (though hopefully out at sea!) before trying to make any comparisons.

[EquusStorm]

Rene is basically a swirl of outflow boundaries and low clouds; really has a lot of work to do to reach forecast intensity. I can only assume low SSTs and perhaps dry air? It's still pretty symmetrical just really convectively weak

[Buck]

...OUTER BANDS OF RENE STILL AFFECTING THE NORTHWESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
8:00 PM CVT Tue Sep 8
Location: 16.8°N 27.9°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[aspen]

I think we FINALLY have a hot tower firing near the CoC.

[Hammy]

Rene is basically a swirl of outflow boundaries and low clouds; really has a lot of work to do to reach forecast intensity. I can only assume low SSTs and perhaps dry air? It's still pretty symmetrical just really convectively weak

Cooler water and thus more stable atmosphere. Thanks to the shape of the African coast, the water temps are pretty close to what they are north of Hawaii so things north or east of Cabo Verde don't often strengthen much.

[cycloneye]

Down to TD.

18L RENE 200909 0000 16.8N 28.6W ATL 30 1004

[ElectricStorm]

Down to TD.

18L RENE 200909 0000 16.8N 28.6W ATL 30 1004

Chances for this one and Paulette to become hurricanes has gone down tremendously ... Looks like we're not getting very much ACE out of these. It's up to the wave over Africa now

[gfsperpendicular]

Funnily enough, convection is the most vigorous and centralized it has been in a while. They will probably issue the next advisory at TS strength and this will only impact Klotzbach's ACE numbers.

[aspen]

Down to TD.

18L RENE 200909 0000 16.8N 28.6W ATL 30 1004

Chances for this one and Paulette to become hurricanes has gone down tremendously ... Looks like we're not getting very much ACE out of these. It's up to the wave over Africa now

This might be a temporary lowering of intensity. There is more convection firing closer to the center, perhaps the beginnings of a CDO. Rene isn’t looking as anemic as earlier today.

[Hammy]

It's entirely possible we don't see a hurricane in the MDR at all this season. East of 60 has been terribly unfavorable for much strengthening. Another thing this year is following with 2005.

[ElectricStorm]

Down to TD.

18L RENE 200909 0000 16.8N 28.6W ATL 30 1004

Chances for this one and Paulette to become hurricanes has gone down tremendously ... Looks like we're not getting very much ACE out of these. It's up to the wave over Africa now

This might be a temporary lowering of intensity. There is more convection firing closer to the center, perhaps the beginnings of a CDO. Rene isn’t looking as anemic as earlier today.

Yeah I agree. We will see. Don't get me wrong I still think this season will end up with a ton of ACE, maybe just not from this particular storm

[wx98]

Operational downgrade:

...RENE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
2:00 AM CVT Wed Sep 9
Location: 17.0°N 29.3°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[wx98]

ASCAT only found 25 kt. They kept it at 30 due to probable under-sampling. Still forecast to make it to a hurricane in about 3 days.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Rene could strengthen to a hurricane and loop around in the NE Atlantic. Wouldn't be the first one to do that.

[TheStormExpert]

It's entirely possible we don't see a hurricane in the MDR at all this season. East of 60 has been terribly unfavorable for much strengthening. Another thing this year is following with 2005.

Well at least 2005 was able to produce long-tracking hurricanes in the Subtropics. It has yet to be seen if Paulette and Rene can make a comeback up there.

[CyclonicFury]

Rene looks better tonight. It shouldn't take long to regain tropical storm intensity.

[EquusStorm]

Best it's looked so far. Just to spite forecasters, of course.

[Hammy]

Rene's convection is building nicely as it moves away from the cooler SSTs.

[Buck]

Looking a lot better on this morning’s visible. I’m sure it will be back to TS status.