ATL: RENE - Remnants - Discussion

[tiger_deF]

Pretty funny to see storm2k dancing on P & R's grave as they both look the best they ever have

[aspen]

The NHC kept Rene as a TD for the 5am advisory just to see if the current improvements to convection will stay. They have, so Rene should be back to TS status for the next update.

[TheStormExpert]

Should be re-upgraded to TS @ 11am.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1303664498625204226

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1303676596021350407

[cycloneye]

Up to TS.

18L RENE 200909 1200 17.5N 31.0W ATL 35 1003

[EquusStorm]

Best it's been so far, official intensity forecast seems on track

[aspen]

Best it's been so far, official intensity forecast seems on track

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/752450251071422514/753254233587056731/25303781.gif

That little bit of shear from the east needs to lower for Rene to intensify substantially, but it still has two full days to do so.

[Kazmit]

Welcome back Rene, let's see if you can become a hurricane.

[ElectricStorm]

Remains the same
18L RENE 200909 1800 17.9N 32.2W ATL 35 1003

[Hammy]

MDR underperformance remains a theme this year. Watch both of them not strengthen much (if at all) until they cross 20N.

[aspen]

Rene is bubbling with -75C and colder convection. If easterly shear will calm down a bit, he could really take off.

[aspen]

The NHC mentioned in the 11pm discussion that there will be a window where shear lowers to very low levels in the next 36-48 hours, before it picks up again from the west. That will be Rene’s optimal time to become a hurricane, although SSTs will still only be around 27C.

[al78]

I don't think it is a question of getting to the Greek's, it is a question of whether this year can beat 2005's 28 storms.

Regardless of whether or not we have a new record for named storms, this year doesn't hold a candle to 2005 in terms of storm intensity and human impact

I sort of disagree. By this point in 2005 we had:
Cat 1 x1, Cat 2 x1, Cat 4 x1, Cat 5 x2.

In 2020 we have:
Cat 1 x4, Cat 4 x1 (and this a CONUS landfall, arguably a Cat 5)

So the same number of hurricanes, one monster storm as a CONUS landfall. Obviously 2005 was worse. But not enormously so. 2005's real monsters (Rita and Wilma) came later in the season.

Another thing about 2020 that keeps getting lost: not all cat 1 hurricanes are alike. True, Marco and Nana barely got there, and Isaias was a messy storm ... but remember how Hanna looked at landfall? Only reason she didn't strengthen above 90 mph was that she ran out of water. With just a few more hours over water she would have easily hit cat 2 and could have made a run at major status.

That said, I'd say 2005 and 2020 are only similar seasons if you exclude July 2005. Two cat 4+ storms before August is simply too much for this season to beat unless the basin pumps out a whole lot of long-lived majors in Sept/Oct. I'd want to see a definite cat 5 from this year (though hopefully out at sea!) before trying to make any comparisons.

The only comparison with 2005 is the number of storms, and that storms have struggled in the MDR. 2020 is so far a failed attempt to replicate 2005. By this time in 2005 we'd had two category 5 hurricanes, one which was one of the most destructive to the U.S. on record. This year so far we have had one major, Laura, which was not as bad as feared, a handful of minimal hurricanes, and a load of storms that have struggled to develop. Things can easily ramp up in the coming weeks and there is another wave coming off Africa which has a high probability of developing into Sally, so it is not over until it's over, but I find the comparison with 2005 rather inappropriate. Just compare ACE, hurricane days, major hurricane days to date.

Lets see what happens as we move into October when storms tend to form and intensify in the Caribbean and Gulf. If we get some rapidly intensifying monsters I would agree more with a 2005 comparison. In 2005 storms tended to intensify into powerful hurricanes in the west side of the basin, which was unfortunate for the Gulf states.

[Hammy]

I sort of disagree. By this point in 2005 we had:
Cat 1 x1, Cat 2 x1, Cat 4 x1, Cat 5 x2.

In 2020 we have:
Cat 1 x4, Cat 4 x1 (and this a CONUS landfall, arguably a Cat 5)

So the same number of hurricanes, one monster storm as a CONUS landfall. Obviously 2005 was worse. But not enormously so. 2005's real monsters (Rita and Wilma) came later in the season.

Another thing about 2020 that keeps getting lost: not all cat 1 hurricanes are alike. True, Marco and Nana barely got there, and Isaias was a messy storm ... but remember how Hanna looked at landfall? Only reason she didn't strengthen above 90 mph was that she ran out of water. With just a few more hours over water she would have easily hit cat 2 and could have made a run at major status.

That said, I'd say 2005 and 2020 are only similar seasons if you exclude July 2005. Two cat 4+ storms before August is simply too much for this season to beat unless the basin pumps out a whole lot of long-lived majors in Sept/Oct. I'd want to see a definite cat 5 from this year (though hopefully out at sea!) before trying to make any comparisons.

The only comparison with 2005 is the number of storms, and that storms have struggled in the MDR. 2020 is so far a failed attempt to replicate 2005. By this time in 2005 we'd had two category 5 hurricanes, one which was one of the most destructive to the U.S. on record. This year so far we have had one major, Laura, which was not as bad as feared, a handful of minimal hurricanes, and a load of storms that have struggled to develop. Things can easily ramp up in the coming weeks and there is another wave coming off Africa which has a high probability of developing into Sally, so it is not over until it's over, but I find the comparison with 2005 rather inappropriate. Just compare ACE, hurricane days, major hurricane days to date.

Lets see what happens as we move into October when storms tend to form and intensify in the Caribbean and Gulf. If we get some rapidly intensifying monsters I would agree more with a 2005 comparison. In 2005 storms tended to intensify into powerful hurricanes in the west side of the basin, which was unfortunate for the Gulf states.

I would hardly say Laura was "not as bad as feared." You had Cat 4 damage well into Lake Charles, and the coastal communities were wiped out. Nobody reasonably expected a Cat 5 and in fact it came in much stronger than had been forecast.

As far as 2005, July is really the only thing that sets this year apart at this point and was so far outside the norm that it'll probably never happen again. In August 2005 we had two hurricanes the entire month of August and only five storms total--one of those was Katrina (Laura filled that slot this year) and the other was Irene--which didn't become a hurricane until well into the subtropics, and Isaias filled that, except instead of harmlessly recurving, it cause significant wind damage up the entire east coast. And no hurricanes in the MDR.

September meanwhile had a total of five storms (all becoming hurricanes)--Ophelia and Nate in the subtropics, Maria (recurving Cat 3 that didn't strengthen until reaching the subtropics--Paulette looks like it'll be the analog for that this year); Philippe--the only hurricane in the MDR during August or September, and Rita near the end of the month.

[aspen]

12z best track has a pretty significant jump to 45 kt and 1000 mbar. While convection is ragged, it looks like Rene's center is more within it and less displaced.

[EquusStorm]

Might have finally started to take off then. As Rene's intensity and size may have an impact on the track of the long tracking African wave storm with regards to any weaknesses in ridging, this is definitely pretty important to watch

[ScottNAtlanta]

I dont know, maybe it's just me, but looking at the WV loop, these two storms Rene and Paulette are so close to each other. It looks like Rene is going to slide underneath Paulette. I just dont see the flow that takes Rene north.

[us89]

5 pm advisory keeps the storm at 50 mph/1000 mb:

...RENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 36.8W
ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[MarioProtVI]

5 pm advisory keeps the storm at 50 mph/1000 mb:

...RENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 36.8W
ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

I don’t see any evidence to support 50 mph. Looks worse then yesterday and this is certainly not becoming a hurricane - in fact I think it’s already peaked and it will continue to struggle and get destroyed by the shear when it increases. Could have impacts on future 95L/future Sally.

[ClarCari]

5 pm advisory keeps the storm at 50 mph/1000 mb:

...RENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 36.8W
ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

I don’t see any evidence to support 50 mph. Looks worse then yesterday and this is certainly not becoming a hurricane - in fact I think it’s already peaked and it will continue to struggle and get destroyed by the shear when it increases. Could have impacts on future 95L/future Sally.

The forecast discussion explains it. Shear is expected to last for another 12 hours or so, Rene could definitely quickly recover.