ATL: RENE - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs.

[plasticup]

Not loving all these runs showing cat 3/4 into Bermuda.

[Shell Mound]

Interestingly, many of the strongest 00Z EPS members are south of 20°N and heading WNW in five days (around 17°–18°N, 43°–44°W). They are also faster and farther west by then. Several members show TD Eighteen, our prospective Rene, with a MSLP in the range of 975 to 985 mb at that time, implying a moderate to strong Category-1 hurricane, and those members are well to the south-southwest of the weaker ones, which show TD Eighteen quickly curving OTS in the wake of the TUTT axis. Given that shortwave mid-level ridging will be building in between the fracturing TUTT vortices, this opens a fascinating situation in which a stronger system would tend to move farther south and west, while a weaker system would be more responsive to lowering MSLP and slackening low-level steering currents. If TD Eighteen becomes a solid Cat-1 hurricane in five days, then it would be more likely to track much farther west in the long range, given that ridging will be building westward in tandem with the retrograding TUTT beyond day five.

[Nuno]

Interestingly, many of the strongest 00Z EPS members are south of 20°N and heading WNW in five days. They are also faster and farther west by then. Several members show TD Eighteen, our prospective Rene, with a MSLP in the range of 975 to 985 mb at that time, implying a moderate to strong Category-1 hurricane, and those members are well to the south-southwest of the weaker ones, which show TD Eighteen quickly curving OTS in the wake of the TUTT axis. Given that shortwave mid-level ridging will be building in between the fracturing TUTT vortices, this opens a fascinating situation in which a stronger system would tend to move farther south and west, while a weaker system would be more responsive to lowering MSLP and slackening low-level steering currents. If TD Eighteen becomes a solid Cat-1 hurricane in five days, then it would be more likely to track much farther west in the long range, given that ridging will be building westward in tandem with the retrograding TUTT beyond day five.

Interesting situation unfolding... Perhaps the models are overdoing the interaction between Paulette and TD18 as well. We have to watch to see just how close they get to each other in the coming days.

[Shell Mound]

Interestingly, many of the strongest 00Z EPS members are south of 20°N and heading WNW in five days. They are also faster and farther west by then. Several members show TD Eighteen, our prospective Rene, with a MSLP in the range of 975 to 985 mb at that time, implying a moderate to strong Category-1 hurricane, and those members are well to the south-southwest of the weaker ones, which show TD Eighteen quickly curving OTS in the wake of the TUTT axis. Given that shortwave mid-level ridging will be building in between the fracturing TUTT vortices, this opens a fascinating situation in which a stronger system would tend to move farther south and west, while a weaker system would be more responsive to lowering MSLP and slackening low-level steering currents. If TD Eighteen becomes a solid Cat-1 hurricane in five days, then it would be more likely to track much farther west in the long range, given that ridging will be building westward in tandem with the retrograding TUTT beyond day five.

Interesting situation unfolding... Perhaps the models are overdoing the interaction between Paulette and TD18 as well. We have to watch to see just how close they get to each other in the coming days.

To be fair, the 06Z EPS shows much more spread in the positions of the strongest members by day five, with many being farther north and weaker. Therefore, an OTS solution is still heavily favoured at this point, given the likelihood of interaction with Paulette and the TUTT, which would both lead to a weaker system and drag the circulation farther north. Even if the most bullish members of the 00Z suite were correct, one would need exceptionally strong, zonal ridging, oriented longitudinally from east to west, for TD Eighteen to even approach the mainland U.S. Currently, the pattern is too progressive for such a situation to present itself.

[LarryWx]

Interestingly, many of the strongest 00Z EPS members are south of 20°N and heading WNW in five days (around 17°–18°N, 43°–44°W). They are also faster and farther west by then. Several members show TD Eighteen, our prospective Rene, with a MSLP in the range of 975 to 985 mb at that time, implying a moderate to strong Category-1 hurricane, and those members are well to the south-southwest of the weaker ones, which show TD Eighteen quickly curving OTS in the wake of the TUTT axis. Given that shortwave mid-level ridging will be building in between the fracturing TUTT vortices, this opens a fascinating situation in which a stronger system would tend to move farther south and west, while a weaker system would be more responsive to lowering MSLP and slackening low-level steering currents. If TD Eighteen becomes a solid Cat-1 hurricane in five days, then it would be more likely to track much farther west in the long range, given that ridging will be building westward in tandem with the retrograding TUTT beyond day five.

Going out further in this 0Z EPS, the following hour 300 map has FOUR Hs in the FL Straits on 9/18. All four of these are from TD 18! Of TD 17, TD 18, and the wave over Africa, TD 18 and the disturbance SW of Bermuda actually impact FL the most on this 0Z EPS run! This shows how much uncertainty there is due to there being so many different systems that can interact and impact the pattern.

[LarryWx]

Yes, that is "TD 18" moving SOUTHWARD near 23N, 49W back toward the MDR at hour 228 on this 12Z Euro map WSW of potential TD 20! Meanwhile, potential TD 19 is near the NE Caribbean. Potential TD 21 is just off Africa!

[St0rmTh0r]

Yes, that is "TD 18" moving SOUTHWARD near 23N, 49W back toward the MDR at hour 228 on this 12Z Euro map WSW of potential TD 20! Meanwhile, potential TD 19 is near the NE Caribbean. Potential TD 21 is just off Africa!

https://i.imgur.com/czhcKWm.png

Absolutely insane amount of activity!

[LarryWx]

Here is the hour 360 of the 12Z EPS: at least two and probably at least 3 of these are from Rene. I know that the one just offshore NW FL and the one just offshore NE MX are from Rene:

[Spacecoast]

12z ECMF: Eighteen (Rene?) doing a loop, then SW. Burkina-Faso wave excluded (not displayed)

[CrazyC83]

This is a very complicated scenario that both Paulette and "Sally" will have a role in. How I see it:

*A stronger Paulette means a stronger trough sooner but also a potential Fujiwhara.

*A stronger Rene AND a weaker Paulette would likely turn it north then west or west-southwest.

*If both stay weaker, Sally would then be the Queen of the Seas. Sally would have a straight arrow towards land with Paulette and Rene left behind (Paulette likely dead by then).

*The Bermuda-Carolina low likely should be too weak to influence steering?

[Blinhart]

So depending on what happens with Paulette will decide on what happen with Rene. What about the Bermuda High will there be a weak spot for either one of them.

[ClarCari]

Surprisingly long time no hearing from ya thread

I heard good ole Jim Cantore talking this morning about some guidance suggesting Rene could do a complete anticyclonic loop back to the west later on to near where future 95L could be and that was the first time I ever heard anything about that!?

Is there any model guidance and precedence for this to happen to Rene?.

[aspen]

That's a lot of spread from just one run.

[Spacecoast]

Rene makes a hard left turn...

[FireRat]

Rene makes a hard left turn...
https://i.ibb.co/nc1bJcQ/system-202009121200-902009.png

https://i.ibb.co/kyFht49/18-L-tracks-latest.png

What a bizarre trend for Rene's future path! I would assume this could also throw a monkey wrench into future Teddy's track too.

If Rene gets shoved SW, how does 20/Teddy recurve in the same general area around the same time??

[ClarCari]

Rene makes a hard left turn...
https://i.ibb.co/nc1bJcQ/system-202009121200-902009.png

https://i.ibb.co/kyFht49/18-L-tracks-latest.png

What a bizarre trend for Rene's future path! I would assume this could also throw a monkey wrench into future Teddy's track too.

If Rene gets shoved SW, how does 20/Teddy recurve in the same general area around the same time??

LOL that would be Rene’s final middle finger to everyone for not getting to become a hurricane so he’s gonna send Teddy towards the Caribbean and U.S. instead. The tropics are literally tryna kill us!

[FireRat]

LOL that would be Rene’s final middle finger to everyone for not getting to become a hurricane so he’s gonna send Teddy towards the Caribbean and U.S. instead. The tropics are literally tryna kill us!

Right! haha that would be so 2020.
but yea, what a weird model trend for Rene, at least he's weakening or staying weak while doing that left turn.