ATL: RENE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 20.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for all of the Cabo Verde Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen
was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 20.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the
cyclone is forecast to pass near or over the Cabo Verde Islands
later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 2 to 5
inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through
Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over the
eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and spread
westward across the remainder of those islands tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM CVT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the area of low
pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has continued to increase
and become organized in a band overnight. First light visible
satellite imagery suggests that the circulation has also become
better defined. Based on the above, advisories are being initiated
on a new tropical depression, the eighteenth of the 2020 Atlantic
hurricane seasons. Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and
SAB support an intensity of 25 kt, but given the continued
improvement in organization the initial winds are set at 30 kt for
this advisory. ASCAT data later this morning should provide
additional information on the intensity of the cyclone.

The depression lies within a favorable upper-level environment and
the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear will
remain 10 kt or less over the next few days while the depression
traverses sea surface temperatures of around 27 degrees Celsius.
These conditions, along with a moist mid-level atmosphere should
allow for steady strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC
forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later
today, and a hurricane in about 72 hours. After that time, the
cyclone is forecast to pass over slightly cooler waters and the
global models depict an increase in southwesterly upper-level flow
over the system by the end of the period. These less conducive
factors are expected to slow the intensification process toward the
end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the
IVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus.

The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 280/10
kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is
forecast to build westward over the next few days which is expected
to steer the system westward to west-northwestward, and the track
guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, a
weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge near 40 degrees west.
and the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and then
northwestward between the ridge to its northeast and Tropical
Depression Seventeen to its southwest. Since there could be some
binary interaction between the two tropical cyclones later in the
period, the longer range track guidance is not in as good of
agreement, and there is more uncertainty than average in the
long-range track forecast.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm
later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread
over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.

2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 15.2N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

...DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM...
...FORECAST TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 21.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen
was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 21.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h)
and this general motion is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to pass near
or over the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 2 to 5
inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through
Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over the
eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and spread
westward across the remainder of those islands tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to spread
westward across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM CVT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

Tropical Depression Eighteen is very near tropical storm strength.
Satellite images show banding features gradually organizing on the
west side of the circulation. An ASCAT-B overpass showed maximum
winds around or slightly above 30 kt in the bands to the northwest
of the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are
lower, however. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for now,
but it seems very likely that the depression will become a tropical
storm later today.

The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. A subtropical
ridge situated to the north of the system is expected to build
westward across the eastern Atlantic during the next 3 or 4 days.
This steering pattern should keep the system on a general
west-northwestward course during that time. By the weekend, the
depression will likely be moving into a weakness in the ridge,
which should cause a turn to the northwest. The models are in good
agreement during the next few days, but there is increasing spread
in the guidance by the end of the forecast period. The NHC
forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the
various consensus models.

The depression will likely strengthen during the next few days as
it remains in conducive environmental conditions of low wind shear,
relatively warm waters, and a moist airmass. There will likely be
an increase in shear by the end of the week and this weekend, which
should end the strengthening trend and perhaps induce some
weakening at that time. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an
update of the previous one, and lies near the high end of the model
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm
later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread
over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.

2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 15.7N 21.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 16.1N 23.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 16.5N 25.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 16.9N 28.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 17.4N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 18.0N 34.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 18.6N 36.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 20.6N 40.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 23.2N 43.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

...DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THOSE ISLANDS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CVT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 21.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM CVT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 21.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h)
and this general motion is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to pass near
or over the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 2 to 5
inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through
Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over the
eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and spread
westward across the remainder of those islands tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to spread
westward across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM RENE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 22.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 22.3 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the
next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is
will pass near or over the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene could become a
hurricane in a two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over the
eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later this evening and
spread westward across the remainder of those islands through early
Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Rene are expected to spread westward
across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM CVT.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

The cyclone is getting better organized on its approach to the Cabo
Verde Islands. Banding features are now well established over the
western part of the circulation, and some smaller bands are filling
in east of the center. The satellite intensity estimates currently
range from 30 to 35 kt. Based on this data and the improved
satellite appearance of the system, the initial intensity is raised
to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Rene. Rene is the 17th
named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the
earliest 17th named storm of any Atlantic season by 11 days. The
previous record was Rita, which formed on September 18, 2005.

Rene is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and it should continue
moving in that direction with some increase in forward speed for at
least the next few days while subtropical ridging builds westward to
the north of the storm. Toward the end of the forecast period, a
turn to the northwest is expected as Rene moves into a weakness in
the ridge. The models have shifted eastward at the longer ranges,
especially the ECMWF model, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
in that direction at days 3 through 5.

Rene is forecast to gradually strengthen during the next few days as
the storm is expected to remain over relatively warm water while
moving through an environment consisting of low vertical wind shear
and high amounts of moisture. An increase in southwesterly shear
late this week and this weekend should end the strengthening trend
and induce some weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is again an
update of the previous one, and is now in line with the HCCA and
IVCN consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Tuesday. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.

2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Tuesday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 16.1N 22.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.3N 24.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.7N 26.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.8N 32.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 18.6N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 19.6N 37.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 22.1N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 26.0N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

...RENE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 23.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF BOA VISTA CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF SANTO ANTAO CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 23.5 West. Rene is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a motion toward
the west to west-northwest is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Rene will pass over the central
Cabo Verde Islands this morning and over the western Cabo Verde
Islands this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, followed by gradual
strengthening tonight into Thursday, with Rene forecast to become a
hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions occurring over the eastern portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands will spread westward across the remainder
of the Cabo Verde Islands this morning through this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Rene are expected to spread westward
across the Cabo Verde Islands today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM CVT.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

Convection has noticeably waned during the past few hours as Rene's
center moved directly over Boa Vista island between 07/2200 UTC and
08/0000 UTC. The highest observed wind speed thus far has been a
10-minute average wind of 25 kt at Sal/GVAC. Satellite intensity
estimates range from 35 kt from TAFB to 30 kt from SAB. A 07/2323
UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated peak winds of 27 kt, but land
obscuration likely has resulted in some missed higher wind speeds.
For now, the intensity will remain at 35 kt.

The initial motion is 280/12 kt. A westward motion is expected
today, followed by a west-northwestward motion through Thursday as
Rene rounds the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical
ridge. On days 4 ad 5, the cyclone is forecast to move more slowly
northwestward to north-northwestward through a weakness in the
aforementioned ridge. The track guidance appears to have stabilized
on the latest set of model runs and, thus, the new NHC forecast
track is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close
to a blend of the TVCA and NOAA-HCCA consensus track models.

The intensity forecast was held steady for the next 12 h or so
until Rene clears the negative influence of the mountainous Cabo
Verde Islands. It's possible that Rene could even weaken by the time
it passes the western Cabo Verde Islands. Thereafter, however,
environmental conditions appear conducive for the cyclone to
gradually strengthen, becoming a hurricane on day 3. By days 4 and
5, an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to
induce a weakening trend. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar
to a blend of the IVCN and the HCCA intensity consensus models,
and the GFS model.

Key Messages:

1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands this morning and afternoon. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.

2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 16.2N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 16.5N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 16.8N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 17.3N 30.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 18.2N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 19.1N 36.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 20.2N 38.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 23.1N 41.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 27.6N 44.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

...RENE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 24.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF SANTO ANTAO CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 24.9 West. Rene is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a motion toward
the west to west-northwest is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Rene will pass over the central
and western Cabo Verde Islands today, and then move away from the
islands tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, followed by gradual
strengthening tonight into Thursday, with Rene forecast to become a
hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions occurring over the central
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands will spread westward across the
western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.

SURF: Swells generated by Rene are expected to spread westward
across the Cabo Verde Islands today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM CVT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

While Rene continues to have a well-defined circulation, satellite
imagery indicates that the associated convection remains poorly
organized. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates are in the 30-35 kt range. Based on these, along with a
28 kt observation from Sal/GVAC, the initial intensity remains a
possible generous 35 kt.

The initial motion is westward or 280/13 kt. There is no change
in the track forecast philosophy, as a westward motion is expected
today, followed by a west-northwestward motion through Thursday as
Rene rounds the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical
ridge. On days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to move more slowly
northwestward to north-northwestward through a weakness in the
aforementioned ridge. The track guidance has shifted a little
eastward after 72 h, and the new track forecast is also nudged
eastward during that time. Other than that, the new forecast track
is similar to the previous track.

It is unclear why the convection is currently so poorly organized,
although land interaction with the Cabo Verde Islands is a
possibility. Conditions generally appear favorable for
strengthening during the next three days or so, and much of the
intensity guidance forecasts Rene to become a hurricane in 2-3 days
time even though the water temperatures gradually decrease along
the forecast track. After 72 h, Rene is expected to reach both
warmer water and strong westerly shear, with the latter expected to
cause the storm to weaken. The new intensity forecast has only
minor tweaks from the previous forecast and follows the trend of
the intensity guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today. A Tropical Storm Warning
is in effect for those islands.

2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 16.4N 24.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 16.7N 26.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 17.1N 29.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 17.9N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 18.8N 34.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 19.8N 37.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 21.0N 39.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 24.5N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 28.6N 42.9W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

...RENE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CVT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 25.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF SANTO ANTAO CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM CVT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 25.7 West. Rene is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a motion toward
the west to west-northwest is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Rene will move away from the Cabo
Verde Islands later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by
gradual strengthening tonight and Thursday. Rene is forecast to
become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the western
portion of the Cabo Verde Islands will continue for a few more
hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Rene are affecting portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

...RENE STILL BRINGING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
TO THE WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 26.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF SANTO ANTAO CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 26.5 West. Rene is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a motion toward
the west to west-northwest is expected over the next two or three
days. On the forecast track, the center of Rene will move away
from the Cabo Verde Islands later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, followed by gradual
strengthening on Thursday and Friday. Rene is forecast to
become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still occurring over the
western portion of the Cabo Verde Islands. These winds will
subside later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Rene are affecting portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM CVT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

Rene is starting to pull away from the Cabo Verde Islands, though
some of the outer rainbands are affecting the far northwestern
islands. Although the tropical storm has a well-defined
circulation, the convective banding features have not become any
better organized since yesterday. The satellite classifications are
largely unchanged and range from 25 to 37 kt, and a recent ASCAT-B
pass showed maximum winds in the 30-35 kt range. Based on all of
this data, the initial intensity is again held at 35 kt.

The tropical storm is moving westward at a faster pace of 14 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of Rene is expected to build westward,
which should cause the cyclone to move westward to
west-northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next
couple of days. After that time, the storm is expected to slow down
and turn northwestward and then northward as it moves into a
pronounced weakness in the ridge. Although the models agree on the
overall scenario, there are notable differences in where and how
sharply Rene will recurve with the GFS on the right side of the
guidance and the ECMWF on the left. The NHC track forecast is
adjusted a little to the right of the previous one, but still lies
closer to the left side of the guidance envelope between the HCCA
and TVCA consensus aids.

Although Rene has not strengthened since yesterday, the models
continue to suggest that the storm will steadily strengthen during
the next few days while it moves over relatively warm 26-27 C
waters and remains in environment of low wind shear and high
moisture. Beyond that time, increasing southwesterly wind shear
and drier air should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual
weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and lies near the HCCA and IVCN models.


Key Messages:

1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across
portions of the western Cabo Verde Islands for a few more hours. A
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for those islands.

2. Rene will continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions
of the western Cabo Verde Islands today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 16.5N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.8N 28.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.4N 31.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 18.3N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 19.3N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 20.5N 38.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 22.1N 39.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 26.5N 42.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 29.7N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

...OUTER BANDS OF RENE STILL AFFECTING THE NORTHWESTERN CABO
VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CVT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 27.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM WSW OF SANTO ANTAO CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM CVT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 27.2 West. Rene is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a motion toward
the west or west-northwest is expected over the next two or three
days. On the forecast track, the center of Rene will continue to
move away from the Cabo Verde Islands later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but
gradual strengthening is forecast on Thursday and Friday. Rene is
forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still occurring over the
western portion of the Cabo Verde Islands. These winds will
subside by tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Rene are affecting portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

...RENE PULLING AWAY FROM THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS..


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 27.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Cabo Verde Islands has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Cabo Verde Islands.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 27.9 West. Rene is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a motion toward
the west or west-northwest is expected over the next couple of
days, followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a
hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

Rene has not changed much throughout the day. The storm is
producing deep convection that is loosely organized in bands around
the center. The satellite intensity estimates are unchanged from
earlier and range from 25 kt to 40 kt. Based on these data and the
earlier ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is again held at 35 kt.
The eastern-most bands of Rene are now pulling west of the Cabo
Verde Islands, and the Tropical Storm Warning for those islands has
been discontinued.

Although Rene has struggled to maintain its intensity during the
past 24 hours, the models insist that the cyclone will begin to
take advantage of the generally conducive conditions of low wind
shear, high moisture, and relatively warm waters. Therefore, the
NHC intensity forecast continues to show Rene strengthening to a
hurricane in a couple of days. Beyond that time, however, Rene will
likely be moving into an environment of strong westerly wind shear,
which should cause the storm to weaken in the 3-5 day time period.
This forecast is largely an update of the previous one and closely
follows the IVCN model.

The tropical storm continues to move westward at 14 kt. There has
been no significant change to the track forecast reasoning. A
mid-level ridge should continue to steer Rene westward to
west-northwestward for the next couple of days. After that time,
the storm should slow down and gradually turn to the north and then
to the northeast as it moves into a weakness in the ridge. There is
a little less spread in the guidance this cycle, but there remain
differences in the models concerning where and how sharply Rene
recurves. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and
lies close to the TVCA and TVCX consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 16.8N 27.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 18.0N 32.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 18.9N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 19.9N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 21.3N 38.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 23.2N 40.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 27.7N 42.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 30.5N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 AM CVT Wed Sep 09 2020

...RENE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 29.3W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 29.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h), and a motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected
over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene is
expected to regain tropical storm strength later this morning,
and become a hurricane in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 AM CVT Wed Sep 09 2020

Rene's circulation remains fairly robust based on a 08/2148Z ASCAT-A
overpass. However, the overall convective pattern has eroded
significantly, and this is reflected in the ASCAT scatterometer wind
data only showing surface winds of about 25 kt. Allowing for some
undersampling, plus a recent increase in convection near the
center, the intensity has only been lowered to 30 kt for this
advisory. Rene remains beneath a pronounced upper-level anticyclone
and outflow is fairly symmetrical in all quadrants.

The initial motion is 285/14 kt. There continues to be no
significant change to previous forecast track or reasoning. Rene is
expected to move generally west-northwestward around the
southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next couple of
days, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the
northwest on Friday and a motion toward the north on Saturday and
Sunday. The latest NHC model guidance is in decent agreement on
this developing steering flow pattern, thus the new NHC track
forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory
track and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCA, GFEX,
and NOAA-HCCA.

Although Rene has weakened, a burst of strong convection with cloud
tops colder than -80C has developed over and to the west of the
center, while a fragmented band of convection has formed in the
northern semicircle. These features strongly suggest that Rene is
poised to restrengthen soon. Sea-surface temperatures are expected
to be 26.0-26.5 deg C in the 24-60 h period, which are only marginal
for strengthening to occur. However, mid-level humidity values are
forecast to be near 70 percent and the cyclone is expected to remain
under a favorable upper-level anticyclone during that time. Given
these factors, slow but steady intensification is forecast, with
Rene still expected to become a hurricane in 2-3 days. Thereafter,
strong westerly to west-northwesterly vertical wind shear in excess
of 25-30 kt is expected to cause Rene to weaken significantly on
days 4 and 5. The new official intensity forecast is similar to but
slightly lower than the previous intensity forecast, and is along
the extreme upper portion of the guidance envelope and is above the
intensity consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 17.0N 29.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 17.5N 31.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 18.4N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 19.3N 35.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 20.5N 38.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 22.1N 39.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 24.2N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 28.5N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 30.2N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...RENE EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 30.5W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 30.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph
(22 km/h), and a motion toward west-northwest is expected for the
next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Satellite imagery shows that the system is becoming better
organized, and Rene is expected to regain tropical storm strength
later today and become a hurricane in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with Rene is
increasing and becoming better organized, with a broad convective
band forming in the western semicircle. Satellite intensity
estimates indicate that the cyclone is close to regaining tropical
storm strength, but the initial intensity will be held at 30 kt
to see if the convection persists and what upcoming scatterometer
data shows.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. There is
little change in the forecast philosophy for the first 48-60 h of
the forecast, with Rene expected to continue west-northwestward.
This part of the new forecast track is similar to the previous
track. After 60 h, much of the track guidance has shifted
significantly to the left and shows less of a northward turn by
96-120 hr. This shift has left the GFS and the old forecast on the
right side of the guidance envelope. This part of the new forecast
track is moved to the left of the previous track, but it lies to
the right of the various consensus models. If the current guidance
trends continue, additional westward shifts of the later part of
the forecast track may be necessary in subsequent advisories,

Conditions appear generally favorable for Rene to strengthen during
the next 48-60 h, although the cyclone will be moving over sea
surface temperatures of near 26.5C during that time. The intensity
forecast calls for Rene to re-intensify and become a hurricane by
the 60 h point. After that, the cyclone is likely to encounter
moderate to strong northwesterly shear which should cause
weakening. The new intensity forecast is unchanged since the
previous forecast, and it lies between the ICON and HCCA intensity
consensus forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 17.4N 30.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 17.9N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 18.7N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 19.6N 36.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.8N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 22.2N 40.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 24.2N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 28.0N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 30.0N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...RENE RESTRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 31.5W
ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 31.5 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a motion
toward the west-northwest is expected for the next couple of days,
followed by a turn to the northwest.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Although easterly shear has been affecting the system, Rene is
producing vigorous deep convection, along with a broad convective
band, over its western semicircle. Scatterometer data indicate
winds to 35 knots over the northwestern quadrant, and therefore the
system is again being designated as a tropical storm. The cyclone
should be within an environment of moderate vertical shear, on the
western side of an upper-level anticyclone, for the next couple of
days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene is
expected to become a hurricane late this week. By the weekend,
increasing westerly shear should cause weakening. The official
intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus.

Rene is currently moving west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt, on the
southern side of a mid-level ridge. A weakness in the ridge near
40W longitude is likely to cause the storm to turn toward the
northwest in 2 to 3 days, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest. By the end of the forecast period, Rene's forward
progress should slow as it encounters a block in the mid-level
flow. As anticipated, the official track forecast is shifted to
the left of the previous one, but not as far to the left as the
latest corrected multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 17.6N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 18.1N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 18.8N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 19.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 20.4N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 21.7N 40.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 23.5N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 27.0N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 28.7N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...RENE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 32.7W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 32.7 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a motion
toward the west-northwest is expected for the next couple of days,
followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Rene is expected to be near hurricane strength by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Although the cloud pattern of Rene has changed little in overall
organization since earlier today, there are some indications that
the easterly shear over the storm has diminished somewhat. Cirrus
cloud motions show that upper-level outflow is slightly more evident
over the eastern portion of the circulation, but it remains limited
over that region. The current intensity estimate remains 35 kt in
agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Vertical shear is
predicted to be modest over Rene during the next couple of days, and
this should allow for some strengthening. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the model consensus and continues to show the
system becoming a hurricane, albeit briefly. After day 3, the
western portion of a large upper-level trough over the eastern
Atlantic is likely to impart increased shear, which should lead to
weakening.

Conventional satellite and microwave fixes show a continued
west-northwestward motion at about 285/11 kt. Rene is currently
located on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. A weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 40W-45W
longitude should induce a turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest in 3-5 days. By the end of the forecast period,
Rene's forward progress begins to be blocked by building mid-level
heights to its north and northwest, which should cause the cyclone's
forward motion to slow down significantly. The official track
forecast has been adjusted farther to the left of the previous one,
to be closer to the latest model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 18.0N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 18.4N 34.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 18.9N 36.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 19.5N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 20.5N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 21.7N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 26.9N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 28.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...RENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 34.0W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 34.0 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a motion
toward the west-northwest is expected for the next couple of days,
followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Rene is expected to be near hurricane strength by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Rene remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with modest
mid-/upper-level easterly vertical wind shear of 12-15 kt
undercutting the otherwise favorable outflow layer. The combination
of the shear and intrusions of dry mid-level air have caused the
convective pattern to continue to fluctuate since the previous
advisory. Although a recent burst of deep convection has again
pulsed near and to he west of the center, the intensity is being
maintained at 35 kt based on a 09/2305Z ASCAT-A overpass indicating
barely 34 kt winds in the northwest quadrant. The 34-kt wind radius
was also expanded in that quadrant based on the ASCAT wind data.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward motion or 285/11 kt.
Under the influence of a mid-level ridge, Rene is expected to
continue moving west-northward over the eastern Atlantic for the
next few days. A weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop around
40W-45W longitude, which will be partly induced by Tropical Storm
Paulette's circulation, causing Rene to slow down and turn toward
the northwest and then north-northwest on 3-4 days. By day 5, Rene's
northward motion is forecast to be blocked significantly by a
building ridge to the north of the cyclone as TS Paulette moves
farther away. It is possible that Rene could stall or even make a
small looping motion if the storm gets trapped within the much
larger ridge. The new NHC forecast is to the left or south of the
previous advisory track, but not as far left as the consensus models
or the preponderance of the remaining guidance.

Rene's upper-level outflow is forecast to remain intact for the
next 60 h or so, which would should allow for at least gradual
strengthening during that time. The shear is forecast by both the
GFS and the ECMWF models to decrease to near zero in the 36-48 h
time frame, and that is when Rene should be able to take advantage
of marginal sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 26.5C and modest
mid-level humidity conditions, and obtain hurricane status in 48-60
h. Thereafter, strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to induce
gradual weakening despite the cyclone moving over warmer SSTs of
27-28C. The official intensity forecast is similar to the GFS
model intensity forecast, and lies below the simple consensus model
IVCN and the corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 18.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 18.4N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 18.9N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 19.4N 39.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 20.5N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 21.8N 43.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 23.5N 45.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 26.8N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 28.3N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...RENE CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 34.8W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 34.8 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue for a couple of days,
followed by a turn toward the northwest.


Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Rene is expected to be near hurricane strength by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

Several recent microwave overpasses indicate that Rene continues to
be affected by easterly shear, with the low-level center located
near the eastern edge of the ongoing bursting convection. Various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the
35-45 kt range and have changed little since the last advisory.
Based on that, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. There is no
change in the overall track forecast philosophy. Rene should move
generally west-northwestward for the next couple of days, followed
by a turn toward the northwest into a weakness in the subtropical
ridge partly caused by Tropical Storm Paulette. Late in the
forecast period, the track forecast becomes more problematic due to
uncertainties in how much ridging will build north of Rene and how
close it will be to the larger Paulette. The track guidance during
this time shows increasing spread and some westward shift from the
previous advisory. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the
previous track through 72 h, then it lies to the left of the
previous track at 96 and 120 h. However, at these times, it lies
to the right of the various consensus models.

The shear should gradually diminish during the next 48-60 h, and
this should allow Rene to strengthen to or near hurricane strength.
After that time, strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to
cause gradual weakening despite the cyclone moving over increasing
sea surface temperatures. The new official intensity forecast is
unchanged from the previous forecast. It lies near the various
intensity consensus models through 72 h, but is weaker than those
models at 96 and 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 18.2N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 18.6N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 19.1N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 19.8N 40.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 21.0N 42.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 22.4N 44.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 24.1N 45.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 28.6N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...RENE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 35.8W
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 35.8 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days,
followed by a turn toward the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast for the
next couple of days, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane by
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

Vertical shear appears to have lessened somewhat over Rene, with
the estimated center more embedded within the convective cloud
mass. The storm has also developed a better defined anticyclonic
outflow pattern. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB
are 45 kt, and that will be used for the advisory intensity. Since
the vertical shear is not expected to be strong for the next 48
hours or so, gradual strengthening is anticipated during that time,
and Rene is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday. This is in
reasonable agreement with the latest intensity model consensus,
IVCN. In the latter half of the forecast period, increased westerly
shear over the tropical cyclone is expected, which should lead to
weakening.

Rene continues on a west-northwestward track, and is moving at
about 285/10 kt. The tropical cyclone is currently located on the
southwest side of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic.
Over the next few days, Rene should move around the western
periphery of this ridge and turn from a west-northwestward to a
north-northwestward heading. Around the end of the forecast period,
a high building to the northwest of the cyclone will likely cause a
significant slowing of the forward speed. The official track
forecast is a little left of the previous one to be in better
agreement with the latest model consensus predictions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 18.6N 35.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 19.0N 37.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 19.6N 39.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 20.4N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 21.7N 43.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 23.1N 45.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 24.7N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 27.6N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 29.2N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...RENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 36.8W
ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 36.8 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed
by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Rene is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

It appeared that the storm had become better organized this
morning, but that development trend seems to have been at least
temporarily interrupted. Rene's central features have become
rather ragged-looking, and deep convection has diminished somewhat.
It appears that the system is being disrupted a bit by easterly flow
that is undercutting the outflow layer. There is also an apparent
dearth of low-level inflow over the southern and southeastern
portions of the circulation at this time. Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain T3.0/45 kt, so the
current intensity estimate is unchanged from the previous advisory.
Assuming that the upper-level winds will soon become a little more
conducive for strengthening, Rene is forecast to become a hurricane
by the weekend. The official intensity forecast is a little below
the latest model consensus.

Rene continues its west-northwestward movement with a motion of
near 285/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward and
then north-northwestward for the next few days, while moving around
the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone. Later in the
forecast period, A mid-level high is predicted to build to the
northwest of Rene, which should slow down the cyclone's forward
progress and cause it to turn to the left. At the present time, it
appears that Rene will remain sufficiently separated from Paulette,
which is located about 800 n mi to the west, for there not to be a
significant binary interaction between the two storms. The
official track forecast remains close to the simple dynamical model
consensus, TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 18.9N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 19.4N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 20.2N 40.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 21.3N 42.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 22.7N 44.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 24.3N 45.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 25.8N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 27.3N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 27.5N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...RENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 37.6W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 37.6 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed
by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday. A northwestward motion
at slower forward speed is forecast Saturday night and Sunday.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is
forecast during the couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

Microwave satellite images from late this afternoon and evening
shows that the center of Rene is located slightly northeast of the
main convective mass. This appears to be due to some easterly flow
that is undercutting the outflow layer. Dvorak CI numbers from
both SAB and TAFB remain 3.0 (45 kt) but the SAB T-number has
decreased slightly, and a recent ASCAT overpass suggests that the
winds are not as strong as previously estimated. The ASCAT data
revealed peak winds of 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity has been
adjusted to 40 kt, which could be a little generous. The
upper-level wind pattern is expected to become favorable for
strengthening while the cyclone moves over marginally warm sea
surface temperatures during the next day or two. This should allow
for some modest strengthening during that time, but the statistical
guidance is not as bullish as before. Therefore the intensity
forecast has been lowered slightly, and if strengthening does not
occur soon additional downward adjustments to the intensity
prediction may be needed. By 60 h, Rene is forecast to move into
an area of strong west-northwesterly shear, which is expected to
weaken the cyclone during the latter portion of the forecast
period.

Rene continues moving west-northwestward with a motion of 290/10
kt. The cyclone is approaching the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic and Rene is forecast to
turn northwestward and then north-northwestward over the next few
days. Later in the period, a ridge is forecast to build to the
northwest of the tropical cyclone and Rene's forward motion is
expected to slow considerably early next week. There is a fair
amount of model spread by 96 and 120 h, with some of the global
models taking Rene more northeastward during that time. The NHC
forecast continues to lie close to the various consensus aids, and
indicates a fairly slow forward speed on days 3-5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 19.3N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 19.8N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 20.7N 41.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 22.0N 43.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 23.7N 44.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 25.2N 46.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 26.4N 46.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 27.3N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 27.5N 49.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...RENE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 38.5W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 38.5 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through Friday night,
followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday. A
north-northwestward and northward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is forecast Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the couple of days.
Afterward, weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

An AMSR2-GM1 microwave pass revealed that Rene's surface center is
farther separated from the shrinking deep convection. The 0000 UTC
FV3 and ECMWF model soundings indicate that east-southeasterly
30-35 kt shear near 300 mb is temporarily undercutting the
diffluent southerly flow aloft. The initial intensity is held at
40 kt and is based on the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB, and an ADT estimates yielding 39 kt.

The shear is expected to relax during the next 36 to 48 hours which
should allow for gradual intensification. By mid-period, Rene is
forecast to move into an area of increasing west-northwesterly
shear, which should induce a weakening trend. It's worth noting
that the ECMWF and the FV3 Decay SHIPS show very little
strengthening through the period and it appears to be due to
the cyclone moving into an even more inhibiting thermodynamic
environment, in addition to the aforementioned shear. In fact, the
relative humidity in the mid portions of the atmospheric is less
than 49 percent beyond day 3. The NHC forecast sides with the
various intensity consensus models and is above the
statistical-dynamical guidance.

Rene continues to move west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt within the
southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge extending
from western Africa to the eastern Atlantic. A turn toward the
northwest on Saturday, followed by a north-northwestward and
northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
Sunday and Sunday night. Early next week, a subtropical ridge is
forecast to build to the northwest of Rene, in response to Tropical
Storm Paulette moving northeastward over the northern central
Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should cause the
cyclone to begin a southwestward to west-southwestward drift
through the end of the period. The official track forecast is
close to the previous advisory through day 4, then it's nudged a
little south to conform with the HCCA and TVCA multi-model aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 19.7N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 20.4N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 21.6N 42.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 23.2N 44.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 25.0N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 26.6N 46.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 27.4N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 26.9N 46.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 26.1N 48.8W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...RENE WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 39.9W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 39.9 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today followed by a turn
toward the northwest on Saturday and a turn toward the
north-northwest with decreasing forward speed on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast during the next
day or two, but weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Rene lost essentially all of its deep convection over the past
several hours, however recently some new thunderstorms have
developed over the western part of the circulation. The cause of
the system's decline is not clear. One negative environmental
factor could be dry air, since the SHIPS output based on the GFS
model shows mid-level relative humidities of 50-55 percent. Using a
blend of Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along
with objective ADT values from UW-CIMSS gives a rather uncertain
advisory intensity of 35 kt. Since the cyclone should remain over
waters of 26.5 deg C or warmer and the shear is not expected to
increase much during the next day or two, some re-intensification is
expected. Based on the current state of Rene, the official
intensity forecast is revised downward to show less strengthening
through 48 hr compared to the previous predictions. By the latter
part of the forecast period, increasing northwesterly shear should
result in weakening. The NHC forecast is above most of the
intensity guidance.

The latest center fixes give a slightly faster west-northwestward
motion of 290/11 kt. Rene should continue to move around the
western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone for the next couple of
days. Then, a high pressure area building to the north and
northwest of the cyclone should induce a slowing of the forward
speed and a turn toward the left. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one and closely aligned with the NOAA
corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 20.3N 39.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 21.2N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 22.5N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 24.3N 45.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 25.9N 46.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 27.0N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 27.3N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 26.8N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 26.8N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...RENE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 41.1W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 41.1 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
but a weakening trend will likely begin by late Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Deep convection has increased over the western semicircle of the
circulation and is re-forming near the center. Based on a blend of
subjective Dvorak classifications and ADT values from UW-CIMSS, the
current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt. Hopefully we will get
a scatterometer pass over the system soon to give a better
intensity estimate. Some strengthening is anticipated during the
next day or so, but increasing shear should halt the
intensification process, and bring about weakening, thereafter.
The official intensity forecast is above the latest model consensus.

Rene continues to move west-northwestward and should gradually turn
to the right while it moves around the western periphery of a
mid-level high pressure system for the next couple of days. In
the latter half of the forecast period, a blocking high to the
north and northwest of Rene should force the cyclone to turn
toward the west and west-southwest. The new official track
forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous one
in 3-5 days, following the latest guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 20.7N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 21.7N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 23.3N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 24.9N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 26.4N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 27.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 26.5N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 25.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...RENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 42.4W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 42.4 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest followed by a slower north-northwest motion is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
but a weakening trend will likely begin by late Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Deep convection has persisted near the center of Rene since this
afternoon and a couple of earlier microwave overpasses suggest that
there has been an increase in banding over the southwestern portion
of the circulation. Despite what appears to be an increase in
organization, recent ASCAT data indicated that this has not
translated into an increase in intensity. The scatterometer data
still supports an initial wind speed of 35 kt. Environmental
conditions are forecast to generally be conducive for some
strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, however with Rene
continuing to struggle to intensify the NHC wind speed prediction
has again been reduced during the that time. By 36-48 hours, Rene
is expected to move beneath an area of strong upper-level
west-northwesterly flow, and this increase in shear is expected to
cause weakening. The ECMWF and GFS models significantly weaken
Rene after 72 hours, with the ECMWF showing dissipation before the
end of the forecast period. For now, the official forecast calls
for Rene to weaken to a tropical depression by day 4, but it is
possible that the system will degenerate into a trough of low
pressure before day 5.

Rene is moving west-northwestward or 295/12 kt. The cyclone should
turn toward the northwest as it moves around the western portion of
a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. In a couple of days, a
mid-level high is predicted to build to the northwest of Rene,
which should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn westward, and
then west-southwestward later in the forecast period. The track
guidance is in fairly good agreement and the various consensus aids
remained close to the previous official forecast. Therefore, the
new NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 21.4N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 22.4N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 24.1N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 25.7N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 26.8N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 27.1N 47.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 26.8N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 25.9N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 24.8N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...RENE NO LONGER FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 43.5W
ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 43.5 West. Rene is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today. A slower northwest to
north-northwest motion is expected on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the weekend, but some
weakening is predicted to occur early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

Deep convection associated with Rene appears to have lost some
organization overnight. Although there have been several pulsating
bursts of convection overnight, the convection that was persistent
over the center during the evening is now confined to the southern
portion of the circulation. A blend of the latest subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity
of 35 kt, but this could be generous. ASCAT data later this
morning should help to determine if Rene is still a topical storm.
Mid-level dry air appears to be the primary reason why Rene has
struggled to strengthen over the past few days, and although the
shear is expected to remain low today, the dry air is likely to
prevent strengthening. On Sunday, Rene is forecast to approach an
area of strong west-northwesterly flow aloft, and this increase is
shear is likely to cause the cyclone to weaken. Most of the global
models continue to significantly weaken Rene early next week, and
both the ECMWF and GFS suggest that the cyclone will degenerate
into a trough of low pressure by days 4 or 5. The NHC forecast
continues to maintain Rene as a tropical cyclone throughout the
forecast period, but if the current trends it is becoming unlikely
that Rene will survive as a tropical cyclone for the entire 5-day
period.

Rene has turned northwestward and is now moving at 305/13 kt.
A northwestward motion around the western periphery of a mid-level
ridge over the eastern Atlantic should continue for another 12 to
24 hours, but by late Sunday Rene is forecast to slow down as ridge
of high pressure builds to the northwest and north of the cyclone.
Later in the period, Rene is forecast to turn westward and then
southwestward under the influence of the building ridge. The track
guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and no significant
changes to the official forecaster were required.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 22.5N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 23.7N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 25.4N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 26.6N 47.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 27.2N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 27.1N 48.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 25.5N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 24.7N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown