ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[GCANE]

Swirl very evident on Visible satellite now.

[sma10]

Swirl very evident on Visible satellite now.

Any thoughts on the cluster a bit to the SE of 94L? The GFS para has been hinting at this gaining a bit of organization separate from 94L and heading towards central FL the next 3-4 days.

[GCANE]

Swirl very evident on Visible satellite now.

Any thoughts on the cluster a bit to the SE of 94L? The GFS para has been hinting at this gaining a bit of organization separate from 94L and heading towards central FL the next 3-4 days.

Haven't looked at that scenario.
I'll check it out.

Thanks

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is located about 300 miles west-southwest of
Bermuda. Showers and thunderstorm activity associated with the low
has increased since last night, but remains somewhat disorganized.
Gradual additional development of this system is possible during the
next two or three days and it could become a tropical depression
while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward. Interests
along the southeast coast of the U.S. should monitor the progress of
this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Buck]

If this does end up organizing and becoming a named system while Paulette, Rene and potentially a third African system are out there... it is going to be so insane not just to have 4 named systems (which is rare enough), but letters P-T! Wow.

[northjaxpro]

Pretty much things have remained unchanged on 94L this afternoon. There has been no convection to yet build over the exposed swirl , which continues drifting west for the time being. We will await to see what happens this evening as this entity continues moving in an envionment, which was thought to moisten up and traverse into a decent pocket of low wind shear.

I am starting to think we won't see much popping with this feature until it traverses the Gulf Stream on its approach to the coast sometime tomorrow into Thursday.

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty much things have remained unchanged on 94L this afternoon. There has been no convection to yet build over the exposed swirl , which continues drifting west for the time being. We will await to see what happens this evening as this entity continues moving in an envionment, which was thought to moisten up and traverse into a decent pocket of low wind shear.

I am starting to think we won't see much popping with this feature until it traverses the Gulf Stream on its approach to the coast sometime tomorrow into Thursday.

the recent convection popping on the west side may be an indicator of where the divergent flow starts.. So we shall see.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yeah agree this may a point where there is enough divergence to do a little something. First decent burst of convection it's had all day and on the west side.

[northjaxpro]

Since my post above in the past hour or so, it was like right on cue, a bit of convecton trying to perculate, as pointed out, mainly on the west side of the swirl. Let's see what the 18Z models are saying about this feature. The models up to 12Z just have not been bullish with 94L to this juncture, including the 12Z ICON. ICON had been rather modest in development the past couple of days, up until this morning's 12Z run.

Let's see how this feature does going into the evening and see if convection picks up and also what the 18Z models runs show shortly..

UPDATE

18Z GFS and 18Z ICON is out. Both keep 94L very weak, both moving it into Wilmington, NC area, with ICON only 1013 mb by Friday afternoon....

[Aric Dunn]

Since my post above in the past hour or so, it was like right on cue, a bit of convecton trying to perculate, as pointed out, mainly on the west side of the swirl. Let's see what the 18Z models are saying about this feature. The models up to 12Z just have not been bullish with 94L to this juncture, including the 12Z ICON. ICON had been rather modest in development the past couple of days, up until this morning's 12Z run.

Let's see how this feature does going into the evening and see if convection picks up and also what the 18Z models runs show shortly..

UPDATE

18Z GFS and 18Z ICON is out. Both keep 94L very weak, both moving it into Wilmington, NC area, with ICON only 1013 mb by Friday afternoon....

[northjaxpro]

I meant 1013 mb arriving in Wilmington, NC on the 18Z ICON by 12z Friday morning, not afternoon of course. Typed that in a rush here at work at the office.

18Z GFS run is faster than the ICON. It barely has 94L as a closed off Low, if that, on the coast 012Z Thursday morning.

18Z GFS

[Aric Dunn]

it has just moved into area of shear at 10kts or less. if its going to make a run.. tonight and tomorrow is when it needs to get started..

[northjaxpro]

Well, If 94L doesn't start picking up some convection tonight /early morning tomorrow, I would think they would cancel the scheduled Recon for tomorrow afternoon.

[LarryWx]

I’m still not impressed with this system. That’s good news, of course, but will still watch.

[Extratropical94]

Down to 30/30

A small area of low pressure is located about 400 miles southeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with minimal shower and
thunderstorm activity. Gradual development of the low is possible
during the next two or three days, and it could become a tropical
depression while it continues to move slowly west-northwestward
toward the coasts of South and North Carolina. Interests in those
areas should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[xironman]

It actually has a thunderstorm, who knew?

[Aric Dunn]

Well it is not Naked anymore lol..

[northjaxpro]

Just checked and Recon still is scheduled to fly out at 18Z this afternoon to see what is going on out here. Aric, US Tropics and yours truly discussed the mid-level vorticity we to the southeast, which has maintained convection for the past couple of days and continues this morning. However, there is a new burst of convection there currently.

The low level vort where Recon planned to investigate continues to be strugglng to fire convection this morming. This area will continue to move toward the North Carolina Coast as a weak Low/ vort by Friday morning and models continue to remain not enthusiastic about development.

Now, the mid level vort to the southeast will move south-southwest the next few days and actually cross the Central or South-Central Florida peninsula this weekend and then emerge into the Southeast GOM on Sunday. The 06Z ICON and the 00Z EURO from last night are hinting at this to happen.

So, if Recon flies out, I hope they look at this area to the southeast later today. Regardless of what eventually happens, more rain is a guarantee for much of the peninsula, especially Central and South Florida , later the weekend and into early next week as well.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm betting recon will be pulled.

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1303663666471075842

[Aric Dunn]

Just checked and Recon still is scheduled to fly out at 18Z this afternoon to see what is going on out here. Aric, US Tropics and yours truly discussed the mid-level vorticity we to the southeast, which has maintained convection for the past couple of days and continues this morning. However, there is a new burst of convection there currently.

The low level vort where Recon planned to investigate continues to be strugglng to fire convection this morming. This area will continue to move toward the North Carolina Coast as a weak Low/ vort by Friday morning and models continue to remain not enthusiastic about development.

Now, the mid level vort to the southeast will move south-southwest the next few days and actually cross the Central or South-Central Florida peninsula this weekend and then emerge into the Southeast GOM on Sunday. The 06Z ICON and the 00Z EURO from last night are hinting at this to happen.

So, if Recon flies out, I hope they look at this area to the southeast later today. Regardless of what eventually happens, more rain is a guarantee for much of the peninsula, especially Central and South Florida , later the weekend and into early next week as well.

Yeah, it has all been the same trough for the last few days. if something reforms south it will still be 94L . Note: convection is increasing around that llc as we speak.. first time in its life..


on a side note.. there is increasing vorticity along the west coast fo florida and broad rotation has begun with the convection. some of the vorticity from the NW carrib system has migrated up..

Icon 6z sort of combines all this stuff now and tries to develop something in the eastern gulf..

would be very 2020.. lol