ATL: BETA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2456
Age: 37
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#141 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:51 am

12zGFS has TD22 really close to Brownsville by by late night Sunday

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5536
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#142 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:04 am

Rgv20 wrote:12zGFS has TD22 really close to Brownsville by by late night Sunday

https://i.imgur.com/x2TB1JF.png

Yep, then scoots up to CC and stalls just offshore, before paralleling up the Texas coast as a strengthening hurricane. 985mb at hr 126
0 likes   
Top
TallahasseeMan
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 120
Joined: Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:49 pm

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#143 Postby TallahasseeMan » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:06 am

What a run from the 12z GFS, has a Tropical storm stall right off the coast and then run the entirety of the Texas coast as a developing hurricane.
0 likes   
Direct hit: Francis '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05 Hermine '16 Michael '18

Outer bands: Katrina '05 Irma '17
Top
Senobia
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 274
Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:59 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#144 Postby Senobia » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:09 am

Does anyone know if there was some sort of coding change to the boards recently where some people can't see the in-post images in the replies?
Like model runs hosted by imgur, etc?
I used to be able to (like a week or 2 ago) and now it only shows up as the word "image" and nothing. :x
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4009
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#145 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:10 am

12z UKMET: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 94.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2020 0 22.8N 94.0W 1006 26
0000UTC 19.09.2020 12 24.1N 92.6W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.09.2020 24 25.5N 92.1W 1004 35
0000UTC 20.09.2020 36 25.2N 92.4W 1003 37
1200UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.3N 92.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 21.09.2020 60 24.7N 93.5W 1004 33
1200UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.7N 94.7W 1001 35
0000UTC 22.09.2020 84 25.7N 95.6W 996 42
1200UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 96.5W 991 50
0000UTC 23.09.2020 108 26.3N 96.8W 986 48
1200UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.1N 97.0W 990 44
0000UTC 24.09.2020 132 26.3N 96.6W 988 47
1200UTC 24.09.2020 144 26.9N 95.4W 982 55
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5536
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#146 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:12 am

12z GFS scraping Galveston at 979mb as it heads NE into same place where Laura hit. Given GFS's low resolution, this likely depicts a stronger hurricane than displayed. Not good.

Edit: Corrected 975 to 979
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2456
Age: 37
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#147 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:15 am

Bad week for the Texas coast on the 12zGFS :eek: :eek:

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2456
Age: 37
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#148 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:18 am

South Texas Storms wrote:12z UKMET: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 94.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2020 0 22.8N 94.0W 1006 26
0000UTC 19.09.2020 12 24.1N 92.6W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.09.2020 24 25.5N 92.1W 1004 35
0000UTC 20.09.2020 36 25.2N 92.4W 1003 37
1200UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.3N 92.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 21.09.2020 60 24.7N 93.5W 1004 33
1200UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.7N 94.7W 1001 35
0000UTC 22.09.2020 84 25.7N 95.6W 996 42
1200UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 96.5W 991 50
0000UTC 23.09.2020 108 26.3N 96.8W 986 48
1200UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.1N 97.0W 990 44
0000UTC 24.09.2020 132 26.3N 96.6W 988 47
1200UTC 24.09.2020 144 26.9N 95.4W 982 55


Damn that would be a rough couple of days for Deep South Texas Coast and SPI :eek:
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4331
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#149 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:06 pm

Rgv20 wrote:Bad week for the Texas coast on the 12zGFS :eek: :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/b2leD3I.png


It’s crazy how most of that stays offshore.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthernBreeze
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 284
Age: 67
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
Location: SC/NC line- on the SC Coast

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#150 Postby SouthernBreeze » Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:11 pm

Senobia wrote:Does anyone know if there was some sort of coding change to the boards recently where some people can't see the in-post images in the replies?
Like model runs hosted by imgur, etc?
I used to be able to (like a week or 2 ago) and now it only shows up as the word "image" and nothing. :x

Image shows as a link for me, just click on it & image shows in new browser tab. That's in Brave browser
0 likes   
My posts are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It's just my opinion and not backed by sound meteorological data, and NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd
Top
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#151 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:08 pm

HWRF at 111 hours, drives it into Texas.

Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
catskillfire51
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 465
Age: 37
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:40 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#152 Postby catskillfire51 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:12 pm

Image

Euro makes landfall this time around
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#153 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:20 pm

HWRF ends its run deeper into Texas

Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
ATCcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 125
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:10 pm
Location: Bryan, Tx

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#154 Postby ATCcane » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:22 pm

catskillfire51 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/q9IyjfD.png

Euro makes landfall this time around



Then starts heading up the coast... very much like the GFS except the GFS stays a bit more offshore.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#155 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:29 pm

UKMET 144 hours (12Z Thursday 09/24/20)

It has Beta still offshore the Texas Coast at 990 mb. Strong TS or borderline Cat 1.


Image
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#156 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:35 pm

The Euro shoots it off to the NE fast, between 120 and 144 hours.

Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6617
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#157 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:51 pm

My gut tells me future Beta won’t make landfall
on Texas coast.
1 likes   
Top
Senobia
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 274
Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:59 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#158 Postby Senobia » Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:37 pm

Stormcenter wrote:My gut tells me future Beta won’t make landfall
on Texas coast.


Okay, well, maybe it can tell that to the models and persuade them.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5536
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#159 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:55 pm

Beta’s going to be headache, I have a feeling sally was just warmup for this forecasting nightmare. Small storm, erratic path, high ceiling, low probability of any given outcome
1 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19165
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#160 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:58 pm

12Z Euro run
Image

Total precip estimates
Image
2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 26 guests