ATL: BETA - Models

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edu2703
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#161 Postby edu2703 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:32 pm

18z GFS

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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#162 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:40 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#163 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:12 pm

FWIW the HWRF.

I don't know what it sees that the rest of the models don't but it again buries it in Texas. It does come quite a bit more norht on this run.

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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#164 Postby jasons2k » Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:32 pm

That HWRF run would potentially mean a lot of rain up here...
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#165 Postby SconnieCane » Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:40 pm

Interesting reversal where the globals are generally getting this considerably stronger than the HWRF. :double:
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#166 Postby catskillfire51 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:40 pm

the HWRF has done good with the latest Gulf storms as well.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#167 Postby plasticup » Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:53 pm

edu2703 wrote:18z GFS

https://imgur.com/BxfoRCV


lol wtf that's the craziest thing i have ever seen
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#168 Postby Horn1991 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:42 pm

plasticup wrote:
edu2703 wrote:18z GFS

https://imgur.com/BxfoRCV


lol wtf that's the craziest thing i have ever seen


It’s a Harvey track with drier air.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#169 Postby Keldeo1997 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:26 pm

Image SHIPS seem pretty excited for beta
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#170 Postby gqhebert » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:16 pm

0Z GFS takes beta into corpus then back offshore and appears to stall
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#171 Postby catskillfire51 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:40 pm

HMON is almost a degree further North at 24 hours
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#172 Postby catskillfire51 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:53 pm

HWRF also almost a degree north and a little bit stronger at 21 hours
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#173 Postby catskillfire51 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:03 am

HMON landfall Port O'Connor at 60 hours
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#174 Postby catskillfire51 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:13 am

HWRF landfall Matagorda Bay in 48 Hours as 998MB storm.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#175 Postby SoupBone » Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:55 am

The HWRF, for at least 3 runs now, has been insistent on this thing burying itself into Texas. Now, it has been further north each run too.

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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#176 Postby USTropics » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:09 am

60 hours out on the 00z ECMWF run, stronger with imminent landfall (at least the first one):

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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#177 Postby catskillfire51 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:13 am

USTropics wrote:60 hours out on the 00z ECMWF run, stronger with imminent landfall (at least the first one):

https://i.imgur.com/HcWjKDR.png


Thats a big shift North for the ECMWF as well
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#178 Postby USTropics » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:16 am

78 hours on the 00z ECMWF run. Canceling flow at the mid-lower levels, and it's essentially stalled right onshore. Very little movement for almost 24 hours (slight WSW drift):
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#179 Postby USTropics » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:20 am

Through 102 hours on the 00z ECMWF run, essentially stalled for 48 hours now, starting to drift back E after doing a bit of a NE to E loop. Here is the entire animation for this run so far to give a better picture:

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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#180 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:22 am

USTropics wrote:Through 102 hours on the 00z ECMWF run, essentially stalled for 48 hours now, starting to drift back E after doing a bit of a NE to E loop. Here is the entire animation for this run so far to give a better picture:

https://i.ibb.co/SctcX0H/9-km-ECMWF-Global-Pressure-Gulf-of-Mexico-850-h-Pa-Rel-Vorticity.gif


Literally a Harvey track. Wow!
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