Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020
Marie has continued to become better organized this morning. An
AMSR image from just after 09Z showed a closed mid-level eyewall,
and conventional satellite imagery shows an increasingly symmetric
cloud pattern with very cold cloud tops, colder than -80C, around
the center. The current intensity estimate is set at 90 kt in
agreement with Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB.
Marie is moving over SSTs warmer than 28 deg C and in a moist,
low-shear atmospheric environment. The SHIPS guidance still shows
a significant probability of rapid intensification through tonight,
so Marie is likely to become a major hurricane quite soon. The
official forecast is a little above the latest corrected model
consensus. In a couple of days, the hurricane should be crossing
the SST gradient and encountering cooler waters, so a weakening
trend is anticipated to be underway within 48 hours.
The estimated initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt.
For the next couple of days, Marie should continue to move along
the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge associated with
a high pressure system centered over California. A slight turn to
the right with some deceleration is expected during the forecast
period due to a weakness in the ridge near 130W longitude. By the
end of the period, Marie is likely to turn toward the northwest
while it moves through this weakness. The official track forecast
lies very close to the latest multi-model consensus, TVCE,
prediction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 15.2N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.9N 121.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.8N 124.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 17.8N 126.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 20.4N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 21.7N 133.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 23.8N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020
Marie has continued to become better organized this morning. An
AMSR image from just after 09Z showed a closed mid-level eyewall,
and conventional satellite imagery shows an increasingly symmetric
cloud pattern with very cold cloud tops, colder than -80C, around
the center. The current intensity estimate is set at 90 kt in
agreement with Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB.
Marie is moving over SSTs warmer than 28 deg C and in a moist,
low-shear atmospheric environment. The SHIPS guidance still shows
a significant probability of rapid intensification through tonight,
so Marie is likely to become a major hurricane quite soon. The
official forecast is a little above the latest corrected model
consensus. In a couple of days, the hurricane should be crossing
the SST gradient and encountering cooler waters, so a weakening
trend is anticipated to be underway within 48 hours.
The estimated initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt.
For the next couple of days, Marie should continue to move along
the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge associated with
a high pressure system centered over California. A slight turn to
the right with some deceleration is expected during the forecast
period due to a weakness in the ridge near 130W longitude. By the
end of the period, Marie is likely to turn toward the northwest
while it moves through this weakness. The official track forecast
lies very close to the latest multi-model consensus, TVCE,
prediction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 15.2N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.9N 121.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.8N 124.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 17.8N 126.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 20.4N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 21.7N 133.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 23.8N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
