EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

Marie has greatly improved on visible over the last several hours, with the eye starting to clear out again. It does seem like it'll be able to continue intensification over the next 12 hours or so.


Dvorak and microwave imagery also look great.

[cheezyWXguy]

Marie has greatly improved on visible over the last several hours, with the eye starting to clear out again. It does seem like it'll be able to continue intensification over the next 12 hours or so.
https://i.imgur.com/P2Gp9hH.jpg

Dvorak and microwave imagery also look great.
https://i.imgur.com/DYTEEZy.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/l0qAYPq.png

She probably does have another quick shot at strengthening, but I am starting to think it could be dampened by another ewrc. Your microwave image shows what looks like about 3/4 of another eyewall forming, and this is evident on ir satellite as well

[Kingarabian]

Appears to be winding down but still a formidable major hurricane.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2020 Time : 065031 UTC
Lat : 17:39:35 N Lon : 126:15:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 940.8mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +17.1C Cloud Region Temp : -66.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Marie continues to be a powerful and dangerous hurricane. Cloud tops
surrounding the eye have cooled and the center is now surrounded by
a ring of convection with tops colder than -70 degrees C. The latest
Dvorak intensity estimate ranges have narrowed considerably to
115-122 kt, so there is higher confidence in the cyclone's strength.
The initial advisory intensity is being kept at 115 kt and is in
agreement with both of the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB.

The environment surrounding Marie will soon become rather hostile
and the hurricane will likely not maintain this intensity for much
longer. By later today, increasing southwesterly winds aloft should
begin to degrade the symmetry of the cyclone. Later tonight, the
cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C SST isotherm. And by
Monday, Marie is expected be in an environment characterized by
vertical wind shear greater than 30 kt, low- to mid-level relative
humidity values of less than 40 percent, and over waters cooler than
25 degrees C. These increasingly negative factors are expected to
cause Marie to begin weakening later today, with rapid weakening
possible Sunday into Monday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the various consensus intensity guidance, and
indicates that Marie should weaken to a tropical storm on Sunday
night and a tropical depression early next week. By the end of the
forecast period, the system is expected to become a post tropical
cyclone devoid of deep convection.

Marie continues to move northwestward and is forecast to continue to
do so through the remainder of the weekend as it moves along the
southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge is forecast to
expand westward early next week, which should force the cyclone to
turn to the west-northwest. Toward the end of the 5-day forecast
period, a large deep-layer trough north of Marie should cause it to
begin a turn to the right. The NHC track forecast is little changed
from the previous one, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus
HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 17.9N 126.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 20.3N 129.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 21.5N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.0N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 23.0N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 24.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

Still hanging on.

18E MARIE 201003 1200 18.1N 126.7W EPAC 115 948

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Marie shows little signs of weakening this morning as its satellite
presentation remains impressive. A closed ring of eyewall
convection with cloud top temperatures colder than -65 degrees C
surrounds a well-defined 20 nm eye. The initial intensity is
maintained at 115 kt based on a T6.0 Dvorak classification from
SAB, which is supported by the latest ADT estimates.

Marie is approaching an environment of increasing deep-layer
southwesterly shear and SSTs below 26 degrees Celsius, which should
induce weakening beginning later today that will continue through
early next week. The latest SHIPS guidance indicates the vertical
wind shear will strengthen to 30 kt by Mon and continue increasing
through the end of the 5-day forecast period. Therefore, Marie is
forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Monday and a
tropical depression by the middle of next week. The NHC intensity
forecast is held a bit higher than the model consensus through the
first 12-24 hours of the forecast, since Marie has yet to show
signs of weakening. As the environmental conditions become
increasingly hostile, the official forecast shows more rapid
weakening in line with the consensus intensity guidance. By day 5,
simulated satellite imagery suggests the system will be a remnant
low devoid of deep convection.

Marie's initial motion is 310/8 kt, and the system is expected to
generally continue moving northwestward for the next several days
along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. A deep-layer
trough is expected to dig north of Marie during the middle of
next week, which should begin turning the system more northward
toward the end of the 5-day forecast period. A larger spread in the
guidance is noted at days 4-5, as it remains somewhat unclear how
much the trough will influence the weakening system based on timing
differences between the GFS and ECMWF models. Overall, the NHC
track forecast remains fairly close to the previous one, with
slight changes based on the consensus aids including TVCE and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 18.4N 126.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 19.1N 127.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 21.2N 131.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 21.9N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 23.5N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg

[Yellow Evan]

Kinda surprised NHC hasn't given much weight to ADT with this storm. Could have justified going 120 for at least an advisory package or so.

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Marie is finally beginning to show signs of weakening. Recent
GOES-17 infrared satellite imagery indicates cloud tops are warming
in the western eyewall, and water vapor imagery shows drier air
impinging on the western periphery of the storm. Despite this,
there is still deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70
degrees Celsius persisting in the eastern eyewall. The initial
intensity is slightly lowered to 110 kt with this advisory based on
a blend of TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications and a 16 UTC SATCON
estimate of 114 kt.

Marie is likely beginning to experience increased deep-layer
southwesterly wind shear as it moves toward the 26 degree Celsius
sea surface temperature isotherm. With environmental conditions
becoming increasingly hostile, Marie is expected to steadily, and
perhaps rapidly, weaken over the next several days. Marie is
forecast to weaken into a tropical storm within 36 hours, as the
storm moves over cooler waters and into an environment with 30 kt of
vertical wind shear. Steady weakening should continue through early
next week, and the system is expected to become a tropical
depression by Wednesday and a remnant low on Thursday. Now that the
system is finally weakening, the latest NHC intensity forecast
reflects a more rapid downward trend supported by the model
consensus aids.

Marie's initial motion is 325/8 kt, slightly more northwestward
than the previous advisory. Marie should continue moving
northwestward or west-northwestward for the next several days along
the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the
southwestern United States. The latest model guidance remains
tightly clustered during the first 2-3 days of the forecast. Then,
the bulk of the guidance indicates Marie will slow down and turn
more northward late next week ahead of a deep-layer trough to the
north of the storm. Given this recurving scenario, there is more
significant spread in the guidance at day 4 and beyond, with the
GFS still farther to the right than most other models. Overall, the
official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly right of the
previous one in agreement with the TVCE/HCCA aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 19.1N 127.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.8N 128.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 20.6N 129.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.3N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 21.9N 131.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 24.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 25.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg

[Yellow Evan]

Eye seems to be becoming less distinct. This won't be a hurricane for too much longer as shear is kicking in.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Marie crossed the 26 degree SST isotherm earlier this evening and
the cold waters and accompanying dry,stable air are having a big
impact on the storm. Recent microwave imagery shows that the
hurricane no longer has an closed eyewall in the southern portion of
its inner core. Furthermore, cloud top temperatures have warmed and
the hurricane's eye is barely discernible. A blend of Final-T and CI
Dvorak numbers from TAFB is the primary basis for the initial
intensity of 100 kt.

Continued rapid weakening is anticipated for the next 36 to 48 h as
Marie encounters very hostile environmental conditions. After that
time, continued weakening is likely and most of the dynamical
models indicate that the cyclone will lose its convection by around
day 5, if not a little sooner.

The hurricane is moving northwestward near 7 kt. A ridge extending
westward from southwestern U.S. should keep Marie moving generally
west-northwestward or northwestward at about the same forward speed
for the next several days. Near the end of the forecast period,
Marie will likely turn northward ahead of a deep layer trough
approaching from the northwest. The spread in the track guidance is
quite low, and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high,
particularly since almost no change was made to the previous
advisory forecast. Both the track and intensity forecasts are based
on the multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 19.5N 127.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 20.2N 128.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.6N 131.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 22.3N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 22.9N 133.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 23.7N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 24.7N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 26.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Shell Mound]

She's a beaut. Looks like a big typhoon that should be about 70 degrees further west.

If you bought into the seasonal forecasts (like I did), Atlantic should have produced 3 or 4 of these by now regardless of insane genesis rate.

“La Niño.” #2020

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020

The satellite presentation of Marie has continued to degrade
overnight with a less symmetric cloud pattern, no signs of an eye,
and perhaps some indication that the mid-level circulation is
beginning to decouple from the low-level center. The initial
intensity is reduced to 90 kt, consistent with the latest estimates
from TAFB/SAB. Further rapid weakening is expected today as shear
is forecast to increase while the hurricane moves over cooler
waters. Marie should lose its deep convection around day 4 due to
more cold water and higher shear, so remnant low status is forecast
then. The new intensity forecast is similar to the last one, near
or below the model consensus.

The hurricane is still headed northwestward near 7 kt. The eastern
Pacific subtropical ridge to the north should keep Marie moving
generally west-northwestward or northwestward at about the same
forward speed during the next few days. Near the end of the forecast
period, Marie could turn more poleward due to an approaching
mid-latitude trough. The model guidance is fairly divergent at long
range, however, with some of the guidance showing the tropical
cyclone being too shallow to feel the trough and continuing a
northwest track, with others recurving ahead of the trough. The new
forecast shows a north-northwest turn as a compromise, just a little
west of the previous NHC prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 20.1N 128.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 21.7N 131.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 22.4N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 23.2N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 24.9N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z 26.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Conventional satellite imagery reveals an increasingly apparent
asymmetric/vertical tilt due to persistent west-southwesterly
shear. The surface center is beginning to become exposed and is
now near the western edge of the deep convective mass. The initial
intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory and is based on a
compromise of the available subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates. Weakening should continue rather quickly
through the forecast period while the shear magnitude increases
with time and the cyclone traverses cooler oceanic surface
temperatures. Marie should degenerate to a post-tropical remnant
low in 3 days, or less, and this is in agreement with the majority
of the global/regional and statistical guidance. The intensity
forecast is near the IVCN intensity consensus and above the ECMWF
and GFS Decay SHIPS which actually show dissipation in less than 4
days.

Maria's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/6
kt, within the mid-tropospheric steering flow provided by a
subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone. Marie
should continue moving in either a west-northwestward or
northwestward motion through the remainder of forecast period with
some reduction in forward speed, day 3 and beyond. The NHC
forecast track has been adjusted a little bit south of the previous
advisory after the 24 hour period in order to be closer to the
various multi-model consensus aids and to conform more with a motion
typical of a shallower, vertically limited system moving through the
trade wind flow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 20.3N 128.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.7N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 21.3N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 22.7N 133.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 23.4N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 24.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z 24.8N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z 25.3N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020

The center of Marie is now totally exposed, well to the south and
southwest of a few remaining areas of deep convection. While Marie's
convective pattern resembles a low-end tropical storm, it takes time
for systems of Marie's magnitude to spin down, and the initial
intensity of 65 kt is based on a blend of Final-T and CI Dvorak
numbers from TAFB. A pair of ASCAT passes near 18Z explicitly showed
winds near 55 kt, but it likely under sampled the peak winds of the
hurricane's tight circulation. The ASCAT also showed that Marie's
tropical-storm-force and 50-kt wind radii have not yet contracted
very much.

The position of Marie was adjusted a little to the west, and the
track forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but is
otherwise very similar to the previous advisory for the first 72 h.
After that time, the most recent guidance suggests that Marie, then
expected to be a remnant low, could turn due west, or even south of
due west. This is a pretty big departure from previous solutions,
so the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but not
nearly as much as the model consensus. It should be noted that
regardless of position, Marie is forecast to be a weak remnant low
at 96 and 120 h.

High shear, cool SSTs, and stable surrounding air should cause Marie
to continue to quickly weaken for the next few days. Simulated
satellite imagery suggests that the system could produce
intermittent convection for up to 60 more hours. It isn't clear how
well organized it will be, and given recent trends it is possible
Marie will become a remnant low much sooner than currently forecast.
The system will likely dissipate sometime near or just after 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 20.3N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 20.7N 130.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 21.4N 131.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 22.7N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 23.3N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 23.7N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z 24.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1800Z 24.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
500 PM HST Sun Oct 04 2020

Marie continues to quickly weaken, and satellite classifications
from all agencies indicate that it is now a tropical storm. A blend
of those estimates is the basis for the 55 kt initial intensity.
Marie is still producing deep convection, mainly to its northeast,
but the overall convective pattern is ragged and less organized than
it was just 6 hours ago.

Basically no change was made to the NHC track or intensity
forecasts. Marie should continue moving generally northwestward for
the next several days, and could slow and turn westward once it
becomes a shallow remnant low in a few days. Marie remains embedded
in a hostile environment, so continued weakening is inevitable.
Most dynamical models suggest it will be a remnant low within 60 h,
and based on current trends in Marie's organization, that could be
generous. There is disagreement among the models regarding how fast
the cyclone will move westward during the middle to late portion of
the week, but they all agree it will be a weak remnant low by that
time. The NHC track, intensity, and radii forecasts are heavily
based on the latest multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 20.6N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 21.1N 131.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 21.7N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 22.4N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 22.9N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 23.3N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z 23.6N 137.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0000Z 23.7N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0000Z 23.5N 141.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Satellite images show the exposed low-level circulation well to the
southwest of any remaining deep convection. ASCAT data, however,
came in at 50-55 kt just before 06Z, which is higher than the
satellite presentation alone would suggest. The initial wind speed
is set to 55 kt on the basis of that data. Marie should weaken
during the next few days due to cold waters and strong shear.
Models are in very good agreement on a steady weakening, and little
change was made to the previous forecast. Remnant low status is
expected by 48 hours, and could even happen sooner based on current
trends.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt this morning.
A ridge to the north should steer Marie to the northwest or
west-northwest for the next couple of days, then the tropical
cyclone is likely to turn westward as it becomes a more shallow
feature. Model guidance has generally been adjusting to this
scenario, with a mid-latitude trough no longer expected to exert
much influence. The new forecast is shifted southward from 48
hours and beyond, near but a little slower than the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 20.8N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 22.4N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 22.9N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z 23.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
500 AM HST Mon Oct 05 2020

The remains of the deep convection associated with Marie continues
to get further displaced from the exposed low-level center due
strong upper-level westerly winds, with the gap now over 100 n mi
between those two features. The various satellite intensity
estimates suggest that the current intensity may only be 45 kt.
However, due to fair number of 55-kt wind vectors on the ASCAT
overpass early this morning, the intensity is conservatively being
lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. Marie is expected to weaken over
the next few days in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind
shear, over SSTs cooler that 25 degrees C, surrounded by a dry and
stable airmass. With the convection now displaced so far from the
center, and no regeneration of convection near the center
anticipated, Marie is now forecast to become a remnant low by
Tuesday night. This could happen even sooner if the current trend
continues.

Marie continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt around a
mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west is expected in a
couple of days as the cyclone becomes a more shallow system. The
latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one,
and is near the various track consensus forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.1N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 21.5N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 22.7N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1200Z 23.1N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0000Z 23.3N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1200Z 22.9N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

[SconnieCane]

RIP, Marie. You had a good run considering the background state in the EPAC this year.

[Yellow Evan]

190
WTPZ43 KNHC 052046
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Deep convection associated with Maria has all but dissipated and
what is left of it has been located over 120 n mi from the exposed
low-level center of the cyclone since around 1400 UTC this morning.
A recent ASCAT overpass shows the maximum winds have decreased to
43 kt as of 1800 UTC, and assuming weakening has continued since
that time, 40 kt will be the initial advisory intensity.

There are no reasons to believe that the deep convection will
redevelop near the center of Marie, as the cyclone is forecast to
remain in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind shear, SSTs
cooler than 25 degrees C, and a surrounding dry and stable airmass.
Therefore, Maria is expected to be declared a remnant low by
tonight. The remnant low should gradually spin down and open into a
trough by late this week.

Marie continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt around a
mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west-southwest is
expected in a couple of days as low- mid-level ridging builds to the
northwest of what's left of the cyclone. The latest NHC track
forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the
various track consensus forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 21.4N 132.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 23.4N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0600Z 23.3N 138.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto