WPAC: CHAN-HOM - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

90W.INVEST

[Nancy Smar]

90W INVEST 201001 1200 20.5N 141.1E WPAC 15 0

[euro6208]

Finally.

[euro6208]

While EURO shows a struggling weak disturbance weakening as it nears Taiwan...

GFS...

[euro6208]

Invest 90W
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 02, 2020:

Location: 20.6°N 141.9°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

[euro6208]

Invest 90W
As of 06:00 UTC Oct 02, 2020:

Location: 20.4°N 141.5°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

A bit stronger on the 00z EURO run. 995 mb before a Taiwan landfall.

[euro6208]

06z GFS much weaker. 998 mb.

[euro6208]

EURO brings this on shore as a typhoon.

[euro6208]

Huge system. About a 1,000 miles across. Models continue to differ on whether this circulation will
ultimately develop or another one within the broader system.

EURO has one system.
GFS splits it into 2 systems.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.0N 140.5E, APPROXIMATELY 112 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB,
JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
BROAD, DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. FORMATIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AS THE CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED AND CONTINUED TO
BUILD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON A 030658Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. A 030040Z ASCAT-C PASS FURTHER
DEPICTS A VERY BROAD WIND FIELD IN EXCESS OF 100 NM DIAMETER. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND WELL ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IS TRACKS
GENERALLY NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS

[euro6208]

Big burst of convection

[Hayabusa]

I love invests that are near 99W

[Hayabusa]

I love invests that are near 99W

https://i.imgur.com/Uz3DgrJ.jpg

I see that they corrected it

[euro6208]

GFS has a Megi type southwest track bringing the storm to Northern Luzon. Peaks at 944 mb in the SCS.

EURO peaks this at 985 mb just north of Taiwan.

CMC, NAVGEM takes it to Japan. ICON same with EURO.

[Nancy Smar]

ABPW10 PGTW 040200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/040200Z-040600ZOCT2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.0N 140.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 139.3E, APPROXIMATELY
208 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. A 032345Z GPM 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORMATIVE BANDING WITH
MULTIPLE POSSIBLE ROTATION CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED
TROUGH. INVEST 90W IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (<15 KTS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THERE
IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF 90W, WITH GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODEL
DEPICTING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN TRACK POSSIBILITIES, WITH A
BIFURCATION IN THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES THAT RANGE FROM EAST OF
HONSHU TO NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Might be on the doorstep of a renumber.

[euro6208]

Big shift in the GFS. Now takes it to Japan. Keeps it offshore.