ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 92, 2020100312, , BEST, 0, 134N, 706W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 055, SPAWNINVEST, al722020 to al922020,

[northjaxpro]

Finally we have the 92L designation.

It looks to be gradually pulling together. It should get into better upper level conditions once it tracks south of Jamaica and enters into the Western Caribbean by the late tomorrow nght into early Monday.

[gfsperpendicular]

This might be a long thread

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, this thread is going to be around for awhile. The potential for 92L to become a very significant issue down the road is definitely increasing.

[MetroMike]

Please put this on the map, not sure which one this is.

[cp79]

This could be our first Eastern Gulf system of the year.
Seems like much of season has focused more on central and western. This one feels different. Thinking this is more of your traditional October storm.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

A recon schedule is probably in the works for this one soon.

[CourierPR]

:uarrow: Yeah, this thread is going to be around for awhile. The potential for 92L to become a very significant issue down the road is definitely increasing.

Are there any current models depicting what you have posted?

[cycloneye]

Please put this on the map, not sure which one this is.

South of Hispañola.

[StPeteMike]

:uarrow: Yeah, this thread is going to be around for awhile. The potential for 92L to become a very significant issue down the road is definitely increasing.

Are there any current models depicting what you have posted?

I don’t know if we can buy into the models this far out. Heck, even yesterday, I don’t think any models forecasted the pressure drops that we have seen from Gamma this morning. GFS doesn’t even really have much of a system entering the Gulf, I’ll expect that to change.

[Loveweather12]

You think this storm is going to go more west or will steering make this a more traditional October storm? I know it’s far out but I’m just watching & curious to see how strength plays a factor

[kevin]

In terms of is current position and the general direction it's forecast to go in this is pretty much the best position a Caribbean disturbance can be for future strengthening. This might indeed become a long thread. Pretty much the entire Caribbean is warm enough to support everything down to 900 mbar and beyond, so I don't think the water temperature will be an inhibiting factor. Does anyone know what the shear forecast is for the region?

[SFLcane]

You think this storm is going to go more west or will steering make this a more traditional October storm? I know it’s far out but I’m just watching & curious to see how strength plays a factor

That’s a good question to far out to know for sure. If you go by the euro

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like Florida impacts once again are a no go with the latest EPS.

Ridge definitely a lot stronger this year.

However something tells me this will change tomorrow.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looking at the steering on the models- a weaker system goes more west, a stronger one North and Northeast. This will have favorable conditions of low shear and gamma will weaken so there’s nothing to inhibit- moreover, the water content is insanely high where it’s going, so this could be trouble for the central or eastern gulf big time

[cajungal]

Usually we are in the clear by 2nd week of Oct in Louisiana. But something tells me to keep an eye on this one

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like Florida impacts once again are a no go with the latest EPS.

Ridge definitely a lot stronger this year.

However something tells me this will change tomorrow.

NAO is currently negative if that’s worth anything. Florida has been too luck for too long!

[robbielyn]

Please put this on the map, not sure which one this is.

it’s south of haiti it’s the second system heading wnw toward the where gamma is now. it will hit next weekend possibly in the gulf by next weekend. It would become Delta.

[SFLcane]

Looks like Florida impacts once again are a no go with the latest EPS.

Ridge definitely a lot stronger this year.

However something tells me this will change tomorrow.

Hi Autopenalti, Based on what? I see no trofs just high pressure for the foreseeable for future after the current front departs or washes out.

[aspen]

In terms of is current position and the general direction it's forecast to go in this is pretty much the best position a Caribbean disturbance can be for future strengthening. This might indeed become a long thread. Pretty much the entire Caribbean is warm enough to support everything down to 900 mbar and beyond, so I don't think the water temperature will be an inhibiting factor. Does anyone know what the shear forecast is for the region?

https://i.imgur.com/bVN1Nmh.png

Levi has mentioned in his latest videos that in a couple of days, a large upper level ridge will establish itself over much of the Caribbean, creating a rather low-shear environment. Joe Bastardi also mentioned this the other day. It seems that shear won’t be much of an issue, but there could be some dry air 92L/Delta might have to deal with. However, assuming 92L is able to fend it off, its track and surrounding environment is excellent for an exploding major.