ATL: DELTA - Models

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Wx_Warrior
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#601 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:33 pm

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HurricaneBrain
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#602 Postby HurricaneBrain » Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:53 pm

00z GFS landfall 30 mi shift west.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#603 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:08 pm

And yet on the 00z GFS, Vermilion/Acadia and Lafayette parishes still receive some of the highest winds with the heaviest precipitation to the west and north of the eye. The GRAF model which our local met keeps showing has a similar solution. It appears like Delta will become a very broad hurricane.

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#604 Postby SoupBone » Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:10 pm

Can someone zoom in?
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#605 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:18 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:And yet on the 00z GFS, Vermilion/Acadia and Lafayette parishes still receive some of the highest winds with the heaviest precipitation to the west and north of the eye. The GRAF model which our local met keeps showing has a similar solution. It appears like Delta will become a very broad hurricane.

https://imgur.com/TXO88XN


Ugh, a perfect bulls-eye on the spot previously hit by Laura. :roll:
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#606 Postby SoupBone » Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:03 am

The HWRF would be very bad for Lake Charles.

Image
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#607 Postby SoupBone » Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:15 am

Euro might be close to the last run. My eyes are tired.

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#608 Postby kevin » Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:15 am

Very big wind field in the 06z GFS run before landfall.

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#609 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:32 am

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=15
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#610 Postby rw1984 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:36 am

Image
10AM estimate based on NHC plot

Image
7AM estimate based on NHC plot

I could be a little off here due to the 7AM update jumping from well offshore to well inland, but I extrapolated the data the best I could.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#611 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:46 am

12z GFS

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#612 Postby tiger_deF » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:51 am

GFS with a pretty substantial west shift despite being only 36 hours out. I'm starting to wonder if a trend is establishing itself
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#613 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:55 am

12Z GFS simulated satellite animation:

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#614 Postby SoupBone » Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:02 pm

Both HMON and HWRF look like they took a shift east?
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#615 Postby JayTX » Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:08 pm

SoupBone wrote:Both HMON and HWRF look like they took a shift east?

HWRF looks to be back where it was for the 18Z run yesterday. Wobble watching time?
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#616 Postby Steve » Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:21 pm

HMON
Image

HWRF
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HWRF IR - looks to be degrading pretty fast at landfall at least on IR
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=36
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#617 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:25 pm

HMON would be better news for Lake Charles area, much worse for Lafayette.

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#618 Postby SoupBone » Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:03 pm

Anyone have the Euro? On Tidbits it jumps in time increments too much for me to see landfall.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#619 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:21 pm

Is it safe to say the EURO finally scored a 2020 coup by sniffing out the Western landfall first?
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models

#620 Postby HurricaneBrain » Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:22 pm

Euro with a slight shift west. HI RES: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=
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