WPAC: LINFA - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

92W.INVEST

[doomhaMwx]

This looked pretty organized earlier (also evident on the VIS image above) and might have actually briefly qualified for a tropical depression based on ASCAT. A small system which went unnoticed. Looks like some NE'erly shear + land interaction affecting it now though.

[mrbagyo]

92W INVEST 201007 0600 14.0N 124.5E WPAC 15 1004
Just off the coast of Catanduanes Island

[Weatherboi1023]

92W INVEST 201007 0600 14.0N 124.5E WPAC 15 1004
Just off the coast of Catanduanes Island

Saw this one too. How about the cluster of clouds forming to its northeast? Might have a chance to become 93W soon

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[euro6208]

92W INVEST 201007 0600 14.0N 124.5E WPAC 15 1004
Just off the coast of Catanduanes Island

Saw this one too. How about the cluster of clouds forming to its northeast? Might have a chance to become 93W soon

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The models develop as well.

[euro6208]

GFS peaks this at 998 mb and gets absorbed by another system.

[mrbagyo]

We've been experiencing moderate to heavy rain here (south of Manila) since 2:00 AM (local time)

[Weatherboi1023]

We've been experiencing moderate to heavy rain here (south of Manila) since 2:00 AM (local time)

Where are you located? Cloudy and drizzly weather here in Manila at the moment.

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[Weatherboi1023]

We've been experiencing moderate to heavy rain here (south of Manila) since 2:00 AM (local time)

Where are you located? Cloudy and drizzly weather here in Manila at the moment.

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Some light to moderate rain experienced earlier here in Manila

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[euro6208]

Invest 92W
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 08, 2020:

Location: 14.0°N 123.8°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST
92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.7N 119.1E, APPROXIMATELY 123 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH MINIMAL
TURNING. A 081230Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST 92W IS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
VERY WARM (31-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS
IT STRENGTHENS AND CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

EURO peaks this stronger and makes landfall in Hainan Island. GFS considerably weaker.

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 091100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 116.2E TO 14.7N 113.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 115.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA ON CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 117.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 115.6E, APPROXIMATELY
466 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WITH
LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE FORMATIVE BANDS ARE ALSO PRESENT
IN A 090525Z ATMS 183GHZ WHICH FURTHER CONSTRAINS THE CURRENT
POSITION. INVEST 92W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
(15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY WARM (28-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE VWS WEAKENS BELOW 15 KTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 101100Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 091200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 13N 115E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 092123

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (W OF PHILLIPINES)

B. 09/2100Z

C. 13.73N

D. 113.98E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO . CNVCTN WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


YOUNG

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 092102
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 09/2030Z

C. 13.5N

D. 114.7E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. GREATER THAN 0.2 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET AND THE
PT ARE BOTH 1.0 AS WELL. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN BANDING FEATURES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[euro6208]

17W SEVENTEEN 201010 0000 13.7N 114.0E WPAC 25 1004

Upgraded

[ElectricStorm]

45 kt peak. Not gonna have much time to do anything too significant