WPAC: LINFA - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEAL A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. BASED ON THE MSI AND A 092300Z MHS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
SYSTEM, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KTS BASED ON T1.0 (25 KTS) BY PGTW AND KNES ALONG
WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA DEPICTING 20-24 KT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. TD 17W
IS TRANSITING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KT ) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. TD 17W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 17W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THROUGH
TAU 36, TD 17W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 45 KTS JUST AFTER LANDFALL
SOUTH OF DANANG, VIETNAM. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF VIETNAM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF NAVGEM WHICH DEPICTS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE WHICH DIVERGES AT TAU 24, THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
ONLY A 50 NM SPREAD AT TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

TS 2015 (Linfa)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 10 October 2020

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 10 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°30' (14.5°)
E111°10' (111.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 390 km (210 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)

[doomhaMwx]

It's making landfall in an already severely flood-stricken region of Vietnam. Certainly doesn't make the situation any better. Models predict 200 to 300mm+ of rain from Linfa w/in the next 24hrs.

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/over- ... 73976.html

[euro6208]

40 knots.


WDPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (LINFA) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
A 102350Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40
KTS BASED ON A 101824Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 42 KTS AND A 102330Z
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KTS). DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW
(<10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ESTABLISH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. TS 17W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 17W IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST OFF THE COAST OF VIETNAM
AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM PRIOR TO TAU 12.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL STR. TS 17W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL AND BEGINS TO TRACK ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
VIETNAM. COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING VWS, DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
BY TAU 36. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN AND JGSM
SOLUTIONS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A 60 NM SPREAD AT TAU 24. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Tropical Storm Linfa has made landfall near the city of Quảng Ngãi, Quảng Ngãi province in Central Vietnam.

Image : Tam Ky radar
http://amo.gov.vn/radar/TKY



Radar loop via rainviewer.com

[euro6208]

Final Warning


WTPN32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17W (LINFA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (LINFA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 15.2N 108.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 108.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.5N 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.4N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 107.9E.
11OCT20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM
SOUTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 17W MADE LANDFALL NEAR 11/03Z AND HAS TRACKED
FURTHER INLAND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 110547Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON
RECENT ASCAT DATA. TS 17W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TS 17W WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W
(CHAN-HOM) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Tropical Storm Linfa has made landfall near the city of Quảng Ngãi, Quảng Ngãi province in Central Vietnam.

That looks very close to typhoon strength if not one. 40 knots seems too low.

[doomhaMwx]

Tropical Storm Linfa has made landfall near the city of Quảng Ngãi, Quảng Ngãi province in Central Vietnam.

That looks very close to typhoon strength if not one. 40 knots seems too low.

It was sheared as it neared the coast, but land interaction might have actually helped tighten the circulation right at landfall as shown by those radar loops.