WPAC: SAUDEL - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Looks to be taking on some backing shear, especially just below anvil level. The clouds on WV between it and the Philippines are flying in towards it.

[mrbagyo]

Should become a typhoon soon if not already.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 496 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND EXPAND,
TOTALLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). RELATIVELY
SHALLOW RAIN BANDS ALSO WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING EXTRAPOLATION FROM AN
ELONGATED BUT DEFINED LLC IN THE 211359Z 25KM DIRECT ASCAT PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KTS IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T3.5-4.0 (55-65KTS) AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE
SYSTEM. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND NEAR-
RADIAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING
INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT HAS WEAKENED THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR), PULLING THE CYCLONE POLEWARD INTO THE COL FORMED BETWEEN THE
SPLIT STRS - ONE TO THE WEST AND ONE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, TS 19W WILL TRACK VERY SLOWLY OR
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE COL. AFTERWARD, THE NEW STR TO THE
EAST WILL BUILD AND EXTEND WESTWARD, BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM, AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
VIETNAM. BY TAU 72, TS 19W WILL HAVE REACHED A POINT APPROXIMATELY
85NM SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70KTS BY TAU 24; AFTERWARD, COOLING SST
DUE TO UPWELLING IN THE COL AND INCREASING VWS AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS
WESTWARD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND BY TAU 72, WILL BE
DOWN TO 45KTS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AS FAR AS RETAINING
THE SYSTEM IN THE COL FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER, THEY OFFER
VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE COL
WITH NVGM TAKING A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AND AFUM/UEMN TAKING A MORE
DELAYED LOOPING MOTION. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS SAUDEL WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE NEW STR AND MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF HUE, VIETNAM, PRIOR TO
TAU 96, DRAG ACROSS LAOS, AND ENTER THAILAND BY TAU 120. THE RUGGED
TERRAIN WILL PRIMARILY ERODE THE SYSTEM, AND BY TAU 120, REDUCE IT
TO 25KTS. THERE IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE IT IS DEPENDENT OF THE NEAR-TO-MID
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Upgraded to typhoon

TY 2017 (Saudel)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 22 October 2020

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 22 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°05' (17.1°)
E116°00' (116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 85 km (45 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 500 km (270 NM)
SE 280 km (150 NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL AS
RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EVOLVING MICROWAVE EYE IN THE
212308Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
(10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND RADIAL UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO TAIWAN HAS WEAKENED THE
STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), PULLING THE CYCLONE POLEWARD INTO
THE COL FORMED BETWEEN THE SPLIT STRS - ONE TO THE WEST AND ONE TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS, TY 19W WILL TRACK VERY SLOWLY AND/OR
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE COL. AFTERWARD, THE STR TO THE EAST
WILL BUILD AND EXTEND WESTWARD, BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM, AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
VIETNAM. BY TAU 72, TY 19W WILL HAVE REACHED A POINT APPROXIMATELY
65NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAINAN, CHINA. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
FUEL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75KTS BY TAU 24; AFTERWARD, COOLING
SST DUE TO UPWELLING IN THE COL AND INCREASING VWS AS THE CYCLONE
TRACKS WESTWARD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND BY TAU 72, WILL
BE DOWN TO 50KTS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AS FAR AS
RETAINING THE SYSTEM IN THE COL FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER, THEY
OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE
COL WITH NVGM TAKING A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AND AFUM, UEMN, AND EGRR
TAKING A MORE DELAYED LOOPING MOTION. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY SAUDEL WILL TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
THE STR TO THE WEST ASSUMES STEERING, MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF
HUE, VIETNAM, BY TAU 78, THEN DRAG ACROSS LAOS AND INTO THAILAND BY
TAU 120. THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL PRIMARILY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. THERE IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE IT IS DEPENDENT OF THE
NEAR-TO-MID TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Iceresistance]

Welp, Saudel is a typhoon according to JTWC

[aspen]

Big eye on microwave.

[euro6208]

Up to 75 knots and forecast to peak at 80 knots.


WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH DEEPENED CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. SANS ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ASCAT
PASSES, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A LOOSE CLUSTER OF AGENCY FIXES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM CURRENT STORM
MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
IMPROVED EIR STRUCTURE. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW
(10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND NEAR-RADIAL UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS IN A COL CREATED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO TAIWAN THAT SPLIT THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
INTO TWO - ONE TO THE WEST AND ONE TO THE EAST, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD, ALLOWING TY 19W TO TRACK SLOWLY ON A MORE
WESTWARD DIRECTION, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF HAINAN, CHINA, AND MAKING
LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM, JUST NORTH OF HUE BY TAU 72. THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
80KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, COOLING SSTS CAUSED BY TC-INDUCED
UPWELLING AND DECREASING OUTFLOW WITH THE RECEDING TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 60KTS BY TAU 48, AND RAPIDLY TO DOWN
TO 30KTS BY TAU 72 WITH LAND INTERACTION AFTER LANDFALL. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH UEMN THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER,
LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY SAUDEL WILL TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
THE STR TO THE WEST BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM,
CROSSING LAOS AND INTO THAILAND BY TAU 96 WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE
DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72 AS SOME MODELS LOSE THE WEAK
VORTEX, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

19W SAUDEL 201023 0000 17.8N 115.3E WPAC 85 968

TY 2017 (Saudel)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 23 October 2020

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 23 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°30' (17.5°)
E115°20' (115.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 500 km (270 NM)
SE 330 km (180 NM)

[ElectricStorm]

19W SAUDEL 201023 0000 17.8N 115.3E WPAC 85 968

TY 2017 (Saudel)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 23 October 2020

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 23 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°30' (17.5°)
E115°20' (115.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 500 km (270 NM)
SE 330 km (180 NM)

Hmm Cat 2

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 19W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 230540Z PGTW
SATELLITE FIX AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A
230604Z SUOMI NPP ATMS PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, AND FURTHER SUPPORTED BY 70 TO 75 KNOT WIND SPEEDS
EVIDENT IN AN ANALYSIS OF GCOM-W AMSR2 DATA FROM 230610Z. TY 19W HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING CONNECTING TWO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERS SITUATED TO THE WEST AND TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS NUDGED HIGHER OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, INDUCING SLOW WEAKENING AND DISPLACING THE
PRIMARY SHIELD OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE MODERATE
(15-20 KNOTS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) AND UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM ARE SUPPORTING THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN REFLECTED IN THE
PREVIOUS WARNING BASED ON RECENT WEAKENING BELOW THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF 19W
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN EXPANSIVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH,
WHICH PREVIOUSLY WEAKENED THE STEERING RIDGE, PULLS AWAY. TY 19W
WILL MOVE STEADILY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
CONTINUOUS INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IN THE NEAR-
TERM, PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND SUPPORTIVE OUTFLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR WEAKEN SLOWLY DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, INCREASING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A GREATER TOLL AND
DRIVE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AFTER 36 HOURS. LANDFALL IN CENTRAL
VIETNAM IS ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 60 HOURS, WITH DISSIPATION OVER LAND
FOLLOWING BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, AND THE MODEL TRACK FORECAST
CONSENSUS HAS BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 231207

A. TYPHOON 19W (SAUDEL)

B. 23/1140Z

C. 18.00N

D. 114.93E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT
OF 4.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RHOADES

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 230909
TCSWNP

A. 19W (SAUDEL)

B. 23/0830Z

C. 18.0N

D. 114.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CENTER EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT AGREE AND
ARE EQUAL TO 4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[doomhaMwx]

19W SAUDEL 201024 0000 17.7N 113.6E WPAC 55 988

STS 2017 (Saudel)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 24 October 2020

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 24 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°10' (18.2°)
E113°20' (113.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 75 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 330 km (180 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)

Lol 55 and 60kts. More like 40kts. It has considerably weakened.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 19W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND SUPPORTED BY A 232241Z SSMIS
37 GHZ PARTIAL PASS WITH AN ILL DEFINED CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS, WHICH IS ON THE LOW END OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
FIXES ACCOUNTING FOR 50-55 KNOT SATCON AND 45 KNOT ADT ESTIMATES
WHICH REFLECT A STRONG WEAKENING TREND DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE
VWS. TY 19W IS TRACKING STEADILY WESTWARD AS SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING
(STR) TO THE NORTH IS BUILDING. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29C) REMAINS IN PLACE, BUT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS DEGRADED, FURTHER
ADDING TO THE WEAKENING TREND.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 19W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUOUS STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD PERSISTENT
AS NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM.
LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36, WITH
DISSIPATION OVER LAND EXPECTED BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, AND
THE MODEL TRACK FORECAST CONSENSUS HAS BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
NNNN

[underthwx]

Looks to be taking on some backing shear, especially just below anvil level. The clouds on WV between it and the Philippines are flying in towards it.

https://i.imgur.com/mODQOhN.gif

That is a very impressive system....

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

19W SAUDEL 201024 0000 17.7N 113.6E WPAC 55 988

STS 2017 (Saudel)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 24 October 2020

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 24 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°10' (18.2°)
E113°20' (113.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 75 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 330 km (180 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)

Lol 55 and 60kts. More like 40kts. It has considerably weakened.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp19/4kmirimg/2020wp19_4kmirimg_202010240000.gif
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp19/amsusr89/2020wp19_amsusr89_202010231803.gif

[euro6208]

Final warning


WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 17.7N 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.5N 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.7N 103.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 106.8E.
25OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
117 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH RAPIDLY-DECAYING CONVECTION. OVERALL, THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON A 251740Z ADT
ESTIMATE OF 1.5 (25 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAK
OVERALL STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
WEAK OUTFLOW. TD 19W SLOWED BRIEFLY BUT IS NOW TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH. TD 19W WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF VIETNAM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 11 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN