WPAC: SAUDEL - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
It is just the first run but still a run
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
TXPQ28 KNES 172113
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)
B. 17/2030Z
C. 10.6N
D. 137.9E
E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE AT
1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET AS CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)
B. 17/2030Z
C. 10.6N
D. 137.9E
E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE AT
1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET AS CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
Hayabusa wrote:It is just the first run but still a run
https://i.imgur.com/JugcIvG.png
HWRF got a reputation of being so bullish, but there's just so much untapped potential in the Philippine sea...plus the structure of this tropical disturbance right now looks quite impressive (to me at least). So even though most models like the GFS and ECMWF are showing minimal intensification prior to landfall in Luzon, this one bears watching IMO.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
Upgraded to MEDIUM
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 138.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 135.6E, APPROXIMATELY 150
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD,
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 171959Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS MARGINAL CONVECTIVE BANDING. 96W IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 138.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 135.6E, APPROXIMATELY 150
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD,
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 171959Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS MARGINAL CONVECTIVE BANDING. 96W IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
The HWRF has a TS with a pinwheel of <-85C hot towers by Sunday afternoon/night. Since it has the current structure of 96W pretty much nailed down, this is a decently likely scenario.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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doomhaMwx
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
The first HWRF run for a particular disturbance is usually the most bullish. I'd wait for a couple more runs to take it serously.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
A bit concerned for Luzon on this one. I know the globals don't do much with it but there is a ton of fuel out there...
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
Convection looks rather loose and fragmented at the moment.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 135.6E, APPROXIMATELY
210 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 180412Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT
FLARING CONVECTION OVER A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). 96W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE
AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
NEAR 9.6N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 135.6E, APPROXIMATELY
210 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 180412Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT
FLARING CONVECTION OVER A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). 96W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE
AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
TXPQ28 KNES 180921
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)
B. 18/0830Z
C. 10.8N
D. 134.1E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 3/10
BANDING MEASURED AROUND LLCC YIELDS DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO BANDING NOT BEING CLEAR-CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...MLEVINE
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)
B. 18/0830Z
C. 10.8N
D. 134.1E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 3/10
BANDING MEASURED AROUND LLCC YIELDS DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO BANDING NOT BEING CLEAR-CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...MLEVINE
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
Despite it's somewhat impressive appearance, EURO and GFS doesn't strengthen this until Luzon. Thye both show significant strengthening in the SCS though.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
HWRF continues to show a bonifide typhoon.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W
WWJP27 RJTD 181800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 13N 130E WNW 10 KT.
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 13N 130E WNW 10 KT.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W
That banding looks hmmm but looks can be deceiving 
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W
18z GFS has this hit Luzon as a TS before peaking as a Cat 1 in the SCS
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W
Now tropical depression Pepito per PAGASA
https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1317912003785105408
https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1317912003785105408
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W
Probably a TCFA will be issued on 00z
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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