ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:12 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 55.5W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Seven was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 55.5
West. The depression is stationary and little overall motion is
expected through tonight. A slow west-northwestward to
northwestward motion should begin on Tuesday, and this motion
should continue through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight and be at or near hurricane strength by early Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the
central Atlantic has become significantly better organized
overnight. The low-level center is located near the western edge of
the convection, but the system has enough organization to be
declared a tropical cyclone. Therefore, advisories are being
initiated at this time. The system appears to be near
tropical-storm strength, but since earlier classifications were just
below that intensity the system is being started as a 30-kt tropical
depression. The system appears more tropical than subtropical
since it is no longer co-located with an upper-level low and it
appears to have a fairly small radius of maximum winds. Therefore,
it has been designated a tropical cyclone. Scatterometer data
later this morning should provide a better assessment of the
system's intensity. The depression is located over SSTs over 27-28
degrees Celsius and within an area of moderate westerly shear.
These conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the
next day or so. After that time, the shear is expected to decrease
and continued strengthen is anticipated. The NHC intensity
forecasts calls for the system to become a hurricane within 72
hours, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and ICON intensity
consensus models.

The depression is located in an area of weak steering currents near
the base of a mid- to upper-level trough that extends southwestward
from the northeastern Atlantic. As a result, little net motion is
expected through tonight. A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast
to build over the western and central Atlantic to the north of the
system by midweek. As the ridge slides eastward later this week,
the cyclone should move west-northwestward to northwestward at a
faster rate of speed. This motion will bring the system close to
Bermuda by late week and the interests on that island should
closely monitor the progress of the cyclone. The dynamical models
are in relatively good agreement on the overall scenario and the
NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1200Z 25.8N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 25.8N 55.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 26.0N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 26.9N 55.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 28.0N 57.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 28.6N 59.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 29.5N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 31.7N 62.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 33.5N 63.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:53 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 55.3W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 55.3 West. Epsilon is
stationary and little overall motion is expected through tonight.
A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin on
Tuesday, and this motion should continue through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and
Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by early
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the northeast and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

Although the center of the system has become exposed over the past
few hours, it is very well defined. In addition, the convective
banding over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation
has continued to improve. Based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5
from TAFB, the system is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm. ASCAT-A
has missed the circulation, but ASCAT-B caught the far eastern edge
of the wind field and indicates winds of 30-35 kt in that area. The
tropical storm is located within an environment of moderate
southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and over warm waters.
These conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the
next day or so. By 48 hours, decreasing vertical wind shear could
allow for more significant intensification, and there is increasing
spread in the intensity guidance by that time. The statistical
guidance is at the upper-end of the envelope while the regional
hurricane models are lower. The NHC forecast is a bit on the
conservative side for now, and lies just above the intensity
consensus aids. Given the expected decrease in shear, some upward
adjustment in the intensity forecast may be required in subsequent
advisories.

Epsilon is meandering over the central Atlantic as it is located
within an area of weak steering currents near the base of a mid- to
upper-level trough that extends southwestward from the northeastern
Atlantic. A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the
western and central Atlantic to the north of the system by midweek,
and this ridge should slide eastward later in the week. These
changes in the synoptic pattern should cause Epsilon to begin moving
west-northwestward to northwestward at a faster rate of speed by
midweek. The models are again in fairly good agreement and the NHC
track is near the center of the guidance envelope.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to
determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near
the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall,
and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely
monitor the progress of Epsilon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 25.6N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 25.8N 55.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 26.4N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 27.6N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 28.3N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 29.1N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 30.2N 60.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 32.3N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 34.5N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:52 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

...EPSILON REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 55.5W
ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 55.5 West. Epsilon is
nearly stationary. A slow northward motion is expected tonight,
followed by a northwestward or west-northwestward motion with an
increase in forward speed through midweek. On the forecast track,
Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda
for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown


Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

Earlier this afternoon, Epsilon had a hybrid-type structure in
satellite imagery, with a partially exposed center and a broken
convective band that wrapped around the northern and eastern sides
of the storm. However, recent satellite imagery shows a small
convective burst near the center that gives Epsilon a more tropical
appearance. ASCAT-B/C passes from this morning indicate the system
has a large and asymmetric wind field, with 34-kt winds extending
over 200 nm away from the center in the northern semicircle. This
is, in part, attributable to the environmental pressure gradient
with a strong high pressure ridge centered east of the Canadian
Maritimes. The initial intensity is raised to 40 kt with this
advisory, supported by a T2.5 subjective Dvorak classification from
TAFB and a 37-kt objective 14Z SATCON estimate.

Warm sea-surface temperatures and moderate southwesterly vertical
wind shear should allow for gradual strengthening over the next day
or so. By 36-48 h, a period of weaker wind shear should allow
Epsilon to continue strengthening while becoming better organized
and eventually developing a more symmetric wind field. There is
still increasing spread in the intensity guidance beyond 48 h, with
a split between the stronger statistical-dynamical guidance and the
weaker regional hurricane models. Given these mixed signals, little
change was made to the intensity forecast with this advisory. The
official NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of the
guidance consensus, but remains lower than SHIPS/LGEM. The official
forecast now calls for Epsilon to become a hurricane on Wednesday.

Epsilon remains nearly stationary as it meanders over the central
Atlantic under weak steering currents. The cyclone should begin
moving slowly northward tonight, then turn northwestward with a
faster forward speed through midweek as a mid- to upper-level ridge
is expected to build to the north and northeast of Epsilon. The
current NHC forecast track shows Epsilon making its closest approach
to Bermuda on Friday. By this weekend, the cyclone should begin
turning northward ahead of an upper-level trough expected to move
off the northeastern U.S. coast. Most of the track guidance is
tightly clustered for the next several days, except for the latest
HWRF. The track guidance has shifted slightly to the right, and so
the NHC track forecast has been adjusted similarly to reflect the
latest guidance consensus.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to
determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near
the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall,
and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely
monitor the progress of Epsilon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 25.5N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 25.9N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 27.0N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 28.1N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 28.8N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 29.8N 60.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 31.1N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 32.8N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 35.5N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:45 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

...EPSILON MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 55.3W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Epsilon.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 55.3 West. Epsilon is
drifting toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general
motion should continue tonight and early Tuesday. A northwestward
motion is expected to begin by Tuesday afternoon and continue
through midweek. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to
approach Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by
Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

Water vapor imagery indicates that Epsilon has been interacting with
a shear line/dissipating cold front from the north and with a
negatively tilted upper-level trough from the south. Furthermore, a
pronounced dry slot has developed in the eastern semicircle, which
has severed the convective band that had been wrapping about
three-fourths of the way around the circulation. Overall, the cloud
pattern more closely resembles that of an occluded extratropical
low, with a small inner-core tropical feature. A 20/0025Z ASCAT-A
pass indicated a small fetch of mostly straight-flow 40-kt winds
located 60-90 nmi northeast of the well-defined surface center.
Given the distance from the low-level center and lack of any
significant curvature to those winds, undersampling is probably not
occurring. Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 40 kt
for this advisory, which is consistent with satellite
classifications of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, and
a 19/2202Z SATCON estimate of 42 kt. Epsilon is a large cyclone with
gale-force or tropical-storm-force winds extending outward more than
250 nmi in the northern semicircle.

The initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt. No significant changes
were made to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Epsilon is
expected to meander within weak steering currents well to the
southeast of Bermuda for the next 12 h or so. By late Tuesday, a
ridge is forecast to build to the north and east of the cyclone,
forcing Epsilon generally toward the northwest through Friday. As an
upper-level trough and associated frontal system approach the
cyclone, Epsilon is expected to turn sharply northeastward between
the trough and the ridge by late Friday, and accelerate
northeastward thereafter over over the north Atlantic. The latest
NHC model guidance is coming into better agreement, with a tight
clustering of he various consensus models lying essentially along
the previous advisory track. On the forecast track, Epsilon should
make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday.

Epsilon is forecast to remain over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of
at least 27C the next 36 h or so and, when coupled with 200-mb
temperatures of -55C, sufficient instability will exist to continue
to allow for deep convection to be generated both in the inner- and
outer-core regions of the cyclone. Thus, gradual strengthening is
forecast during that time. However, by 48 h and continuing through
72 h, SSTs cool to near 26.5C and the depth of the relatively warm
water becomes quite shallow, as indciated by upper-ocean heat
content values dropping to near zero by 72 h. The large and
expansive wind field should result in cold upwelling both ahead of
and beneath the inner-core wind field, which is likely to temper the
intensification process. This may be reflected in the past couple of
HRWF runs which no longer make Epsilon a hurricane by the time the
cyclone approaches Bermuda on Friday. For now, the intensity
forecast has only been lowered slightly since there may be some
baroclinic interaction with an approaching upper-level trough that
could offset the cooler waters. Epsilon could be undergoing
extratropical transition by the 120-h forecast period, but for now
the system will be shown as still being tropical since it will be
located over marginal SSTs near 26C at that time.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to
determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near
the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall,
and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely
monitor the progress of Epsilon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 25.3N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 26.1N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 27.5N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 28.3N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 29.1N 59.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 30.4N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 31.3N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 32.9N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 36.4N 60.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:26 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

...EPSILON DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 54.7W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Epsilon.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward
the north and northwest is expected later today, with a general
northwestward motion expected through Thursday. On the forecast
track, Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by
Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

Epsilon continues to have a non-standard appearance in satellite
imagery this morning. While an area of convection is near and over
the center, the center is also near the western end of a baroclinic
zone, and that is giving the storm the look of a occluded
extratropical low. In addition, water vapor and air mass imagery
indicate that an upper-level trough is close to the system in the
southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have not
changed significantly since the last advisory, so the initial
intensity is unchanged at 40 kt. Epsilon remains a large cyclone
with gale-force or tropical-storm-force winds extending outward
more than 250 nmi in the northern semicircle.

The center has drifted eastward since the last advisory, with the
initial motion a somewhat uncertain 075/3. A northward to
northwestward motion is expected to begin shortly as Epsilon
becomes embedded in a large mid-level low over the central
Atlantic. Later today, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to
the north and east of the cyclone, forcing Epsilon generally toward
the northwest through about 72 h. After that time, a deep-layer
trough and associated frontal system moving eastward into the
western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to recurve to the
northeast at an increasing forward speed. The guidance is in good
agreement with the scenario, and the new forecast track, which has
only minor adjustments from the previous track, lies near the
various consensus models. On the forecast track, Epsilon should
make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday.

There are several conflicting factors in the intensity forecast.
First, while the cyclone is expected to move over relatively warm
sea surface temperatures, the oceanic heat content along the
forecast track drops to low levels after 36 h. Second, while the
overall shear is forecast to be light to moderate through the
forecast period, Epsilon is interacting with the aforementioned
upper-level trough, and the global models suggest it will interact
with another trough around the 72 h point. These troughs should
provide upper-level divergence to aid strengthening, but also may
feed cool and dry air into the cyclone, which would be a negative
factor. The intensity guidance continues to show gradual
strengthening despite the negative factors, with the global models
showing fairy low central pressures during the 72-120 h period.
Based on this, the intensity forecast continues to call for Epsilon
to become a hurricane, and the new forecast has only minor tweaks
from the previous forecast. Extratropical transition will likely
be underway by 120 h, but likely will not finish until after the
end of the forecast period.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to
determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near
the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall,
and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely
monitor the progress of Epsilon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 25.6N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 26.6N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 27.8N 57.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 29.4N 60.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 30.6N 60.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 31.6N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 33.5N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 38.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:54 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

...EPSILON TURNS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 55.0W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 55.0 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
northwestward motion with a slightly faster forward speed is
forecast over the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make
its closest approach to the island on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km),
primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown


Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

A curved band of deep convection persists near and over the center
of Epsilon this morning. The cyclone is experiencing southwesterly
vertical wind shear as it interacts with an upper-level trough to
its southwest, and the storm still has a hybrid-like appearance in
satellite imagery with a band of convection well to the east and
northeast of the center. Water vapor imagery indicates that some dry
mid-level air is impinging on the south and west sides of the
circulation. A very recent ASCAT-A overpass shows several 45-kt
vectors in the southeast quadrant, and it is certainly possible that
the intensity could be near 50 kt based on the known undersampling
issues. The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt with this advisory,
which is consistent with a T3.0 Dvorak classification from SAB.
Epsilon remains a large cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward more than 250 n mi in the northern semicircle.

Although Epsilon was drifting northeastward earlier this morning,
recent visible satellite imagery suggest Epsilon is beginning to
turn north-northwestward or northwestward with a faster forward
speed as a mid-level ridge builds to its north and east. This
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.
Beyond 72 h, a deep-layer trough moving eastward into the western
Atlantic should cause Epsilon to turn northward and then accelerate
northeastward near the end of the forecast period. The track
guidance remains in good agreement, and only minor adjustments were
made to the previous track in line with the consensus aids
(excluding the outlying HWRF solution at this time). Epsilon is
still forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday.

The intensity forecast remains tricky since moderate
south-southwesterly shear is expected to persist for another 12-18 h
as Epsilon continues to interact with a nearby upper-level trough.
By the time the deep-layer shear abates, Epsilon will be gaining
latitude and moving over waters with lower oceanic heat content.
Additionally, intrusions of environmental dry air could inhibit or
at least slow the development process. Regardless, the global models
show fairly significant deepening of the cyclone in the coming days,
and the intensity guidance consensus still supports at least gradual
strengthening. Therefore, little change was made to the official NHC
intensity forecast, which still shows Epsilon becoming a hurricane
late this week.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it
makes its closest approach to Bermuda late this week. While it is
too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and
intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from
wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect for the island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 26.5N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 27.4N 56.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 28.2N 58.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 28.9N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 30.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 31.4N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 32.4N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 34.5N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 39.5N 55.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:54 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
200 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

...EPSILON SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 55.4W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 55.4 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
northwestward motion with a similar forward speed is forecast over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast
to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach
to the island on Friday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 60 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km),
primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:48 pm

Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

...EPSILON CONTINUES STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 55.8W
ABOUT 615 MI...995 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 55.8 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slightly
slower west-northwestward or northwestward motion on Wednesday and
Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer
to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island
on Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to become a hurricane
tonight or early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km),
primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown


Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

Epsilon’s structure has greatly improved this afternoon. Deep
convection is wrapped more tightly around the center, and a small
central dense overcast is evident in recent satellite imagery.
Overall, the cyclone appears better organized and more tropical in
nature as it fends off weak to moderate deep-layer shear and some
dry mid-level air in its surrounding environment. There are even
some hints of an eye-like feature trying to develop in recent
visible and microwave imagery. A 14Z ASCAT-B overpass showed several
45-50 kt wind barbs in the northern semicircle of Epsilon, and its
organization has improved since then. A T3.5 Dvorak classification
from SAB supports raising the initial intensity to 55 kt with this
advisory. Epsilon is a large cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward as far as 300 n mi in its northern semicircle.

The cyclone has accelerated northwestward today, and its estimated
motion is a somewhat uncertain 320/12 kt. Epsilon should continue to
move northwestward or west-northwestward for the next several days
as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and east. The
tightly clustered guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward
and is faster with the storm motion through about 72 h, and these
trends are reflected in the official NHC track forecast. Epsilon is
now forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday
night before recurving ahead of an upper-level trough that should
move over the western Atlantic this weekend. By day 5, Epsilon could
be near the beginning of its extratropical transition as it races
northeastward across the central Atlantic.

Epsilon has strengthened today despite some negative environmental
factors including weak to moderate deep-layer shear and dry air
noted in water vapor imagery along the southwestern periphery of the
storm. Given recent satellite trends and little expected change in
the environmental conditions during the next day or so, additional
strengthening appears likely. The official NHC track forecast lies
well above the guidance consensus in the near term and most closely
follows the SHIPS output, which brings Epsilon to hurricane strength
overnight. As the cyclone gains latitude and moves over waters with
lower oceanic heat content beyond 48 h, the intensity is expected to
level off, and the NHC forecast better aligns with the ICON and HCCA
aids through the rest of the forecast period.


Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it
makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday or early
Friday. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of
Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, tropical storm
conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous
surf conditions also likely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 27.9N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 28.8N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 29.3N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 30.3N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 34.0N 61.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 36.7N 60.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 42.0N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:52 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
800 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

...EPSILON LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 56.3W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 56.3 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slightly
slower west-northwestward or northwestward motion on Wednesday and
Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer
to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island
on Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Epsilon is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km),
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

...EPSILON STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 56.8W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 56.8 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slightly
slower west-northwestward motion on Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track,
Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make
its closest approach to the island on Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km), mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

The tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized on
satellite images this evening, with the Central Dense Overcast
becoming increasingly symmetric. Also the eye, which was
intermittently apparent earlier in the evening, has become better
defined. Epsilon is being upgraded to a hurricane, consistent with
a Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB. This is the tenth hurricane
of the season.

Epsilon is moving northwestward, or around 310/11 kt, but beginning
to turn more toward a west-northwestward heading. The hurricane is
expected to move generally west-northwestward on Wednesday in
response to a mid-level high pressure system to its north and
northwest. In a couple of days, the high is forecast to shift
eastward and this should cause Epsilon to turn toward the
north-northwest and pass to the east of Bermuda, with the center
coming closest to the island in around 48 hours. In 3 to 4
days, the hurricane should turn northward and move through a break
in the subtropical ridge. By the end of the forecast period, the
system should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward as it
begins to move into the higher-latitude westerlies. The official
forecast track is very close to both the previous NHC prediction
and the corrected multi-model dynamical consensus.

Delta is expected to strengthen some more as it moves over
marginally warm waters and within an environment of moderate
vertical shear during the next day or so. In 36 to 48 hours, the
oceanic heat content below the cyclone is expected to become very
low which should limit further intensification. The official
intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus.
By day 5, the global models show the cyclone interacting and
merging with a frontal zone so the system will likely be
extratropical by that time.


Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to remain at hurricane strength by the time
it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday. While
it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track
and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are
possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf
conditions also likely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 28.5N 56.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 29.2N 58.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 29.9N 59.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 31.0N 60.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 32.2N 61.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 33.5N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 34.6N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 38.4N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 44.0N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:32 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...EPSILON HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED...
...BUT THIS STRENGTHENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 58.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 58.3 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion at a slower forward speed is expected through today. A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward
the north by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of
Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda
Thursday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
today, followed by little change in strength into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 435 miles
(705 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on
Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg





Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

Epsilon has maintained an eye in infrared satellite images during
the past few hours, although a 0522 UTC AMSR microwave image
indicated that the eastern and southern eyewall were a little thin
at the time. Still, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT, unanimously increased to T4.5/77 kt, and Epsilon's
intensity is therefore set at 75 kt. By definition, Epsilon has
rapidly intensified, its intensity increasing more than 30 kt
during the past 24 hours.

As expected, Epsilon has turned toward the west-northwest with an
initial motion of 300/12 kt, in response to a mid-tropospheric ridge
which has built to the north of the hurricane. This ridge is
expected to cede control to another ridge positioning itself east of
Epsilon during the next 24 hours, which should steer the cyclone
back to the northwest and then north Thursday and Thursday night.
Epsilon is then expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies this weekend, accelerating northeastward toward the north
Atlantic by the end of the forecast period. The GFS and HWRF
models are showing some deviation to the east and west,
respectively, of the other tightly packed guidance during the
expected recurvature to the east of Bermuda. However, given that
that there is little spread among the other models, the NHC track
prediction remains close to the simple and corrected multi-model
consensus aids.

Relatively low vertical shear could foster some additional
strengthening today, but oceanic heat content values are expected
to fall to zero in 12-24 hours, which is likely to temper how much
intensification can occur. During the first few days, the NHC
intensity forecast lies between the nearly steady-state HCCA and
IVCN aids and the slightly higher SHIPS and LGEM models. This
forecast allows for some modest strengthening but generally shows
little change in strength for the next 3 days. Some gradual
weakening is anticipated on days 4 and 5 as Epsilon merges with a
cold front and becomes extratropical, but it is likely to still be
a powerful cyclone as it moves toward the north Atlantic at the end
of the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday,
when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the
island as a hurricane.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 28.9N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 29.5N 59.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 30.4N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 33.1N 61.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 34.3N 61.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 35.8N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 40.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 46.0N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:31 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...EPSILON A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 59.1W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 59.1 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by
a turn toward the north by Thursday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to
Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today,
followed by little change in strength into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 435 miles
(705 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake




Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

Epsilon is maintaining a healthy satellite appearance this morning
after its rapid intensification last night. A 10-to-15 n mi-wide
eye is evident in visible satellite imagery this morning, and 0815Z
GMI 89 GHz microwave imagery shows a closed eyewall with deep
convection surrounding the well-defined center. Objective satellite
estimates from UW-CIMSS and subjective Dvorak classifications from
SAB and TAFB support raising the initial intensity to 80 kt with
this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
should be in the area this afternoon for a better estimate.

Epsilon took a brief westward jog this morning, and its initial
motion is now estimated at 285/10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the
north-northeast of the cyclone should continue steering Epsilon
toward the west-northwest today with a slightly slower forward
speed. Then, another ridge is forecast to build to the east of
the hurricane, which should turn the cyclone toward the northwest
on Thursday and northward on Friday. Epsilon is forecast to
pass east of Bermuda and make its closest approach to the island
Thursday afternoon or evening. As the hurricane gains latitude and
becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, the cyclone
will likely accelerate northeastward across the central Atlantic
this weekend. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track
forecast, mainly beyond 48 h when more spread is noted in the track
guidance.

Weak vertical wind shear and waters with marginal oceanic heat
content could allow for some additional modest strengthening
today, and the NHC intensity forecast now brings Epsilon to a 85-kt
hurricane in 12 h. Then, Epsilon's intensity is likely to plateau as
environmental conditions gradually become less conducive for
additional development. Beyond 36-48 h, increasing southerly
deep-layer shear and cooler waters are forecast to induce a slow
weakening trend, although the tropical-storm-force wind field should
expand as Epsilon moves into the mid-latitudes and begins its
extratropical transition. The forecast calls for Epsilon to be
extratropical by 120 h, but it is expected to remain a powerful
cyclone as it moves across the northern Atlantic at the end of the
forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday,
when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the
island. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 29.1N 59.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 29.6N 60.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 30.9N 60.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 32.3N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 33.7N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 35.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 36.6N 60.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 42.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 49.5N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:33 pm

Hurricane Epsilon Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
130 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS EPSILON STRONGER...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Epsilon has continued to strengthen and now has maximum
sustained winds of 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. A Special
Advisory will be issued by 200 PM AST (1800 UTC) to reflect the
higher initial intensity and adjust the intensity forecast. This
special advisory will be issued in lieu of the 200 PM AST (1800
UTC) intermediate public advisory.


SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 59.6W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:52 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Special Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
200 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS EPSILON IS STILL
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 59.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 59.7 West. Epsilon is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north
by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is
forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Thursday afternoon
or evening.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible this
afternoon, followed by little change in strength or gradual
weakening into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 435 miles
(705 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake




Hurricane Epsilon Special Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
200 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Epsilon
is significantly stronger than was previously analyzed. A blend of
the flight-level and surface wind data supports an intensity of 95
kt. The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward during the first
12-24 h to account for this new data. It is possible that Epsilon
could strengthen a little more and become a major hurricane later
today before conditions become less conducive tomorrow.

No changes were made to the track forecast at this time.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday,
when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the
island. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1800Z 29.4N 59.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 29.6N 60.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 30.9N 60.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 32.3N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 33.7N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 35.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 36.6N 60.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 42.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 49.5N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:52 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...EPSILON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 60.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located
near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 60.0 West. Epsilon is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Thursday. The hurricane is forecast
to turn toward the north-northwest or north by Thursday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its
closest approach to Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Epsilon is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some small fluctuations in
intensity are possible tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to
begin on Thursday and continue into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 450 miles
(720 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
this evening and continuing intermittently through late Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

NNNN



Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

Epsilon has continued to defy expectations and rapidly intensify
this afternoon. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is very
impressive, with a warm well-defined eye and a closed ring of
eyewall convection with cloud tops colder than -60 deg C. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated Epsilon earlier
today measured SFMR winds of around 100 kt and max flight level
winds of 100 kt. Dropsonde data indicated peak surface winds of 106
kt with deeper-layer averages of 95-100 kt, which also lends support
to the higher SFMR winds, and surface pressures have fallen since
the special advisory. Therefore the initial intensity is raised to
100 kt, making Epsilon the 4th major hurricane of the season.

Epsilon's estimated motion is 305/9 kt, and the hurricane is
expected to gradually turn more northwestward tonight as it is
steered by a mid-level ridge building to its north and east.
Epsilon is forecast to pass east of Bermuda and make its closest
approach to the island Thursday afternoon or evening. As the
ridge becomes oriented east of the hurricane, Epsilon will turn
northward and move into the mid-latitudes, where it is expected to
accelerate northeastward across the central Atlantic this weekend.
There was a westward shift noted in a couple of the track models,
and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly westward in
the near-term period to better reflect the guidance consensus.

As Epsilon continues to gain latitude, environmental conditions will
become increasingly unfavorable for additional strengthening. The
hurricane is forecast to move over cooler waters beginning tonight,
and southerly deep-layer shear is expected within the next 24-48 h.
With that being said, small intensity fluctuations cannot be
completely ruled out tonight given Epsilon's development trends and
well-organized structure. The NHC intensity forecast lies closest to
the SHIPS guidance for the first 24-36 h of the forecast period.
Afterwards, the official forecast shows more steady weakening with
the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, and the new NHC
intensity prediction follows the intensity consensus. Epsilon could
begin its extratropical transition by Sunday night, and it is
forecast to be a powerful extratropical cyclone over the
northeastern Atlantic by day 5.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
this evening and continuing intermittently through late Thursday,
when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the
island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 29.6N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 30.5N 60.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 33.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 34.4N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 36.2N 61.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 38.3N 59.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 44.5N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 54.0N 28.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
800 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...EPSILON EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA BY LATE TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 60.5W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located
near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 60.5 West. Epsilon has been
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) over the past
few hours, but a northwestward motion is expected tonight and
Thursday. The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the
north-northwest or north by Thursday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to
Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Epsilon is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some small fluctuations in intensity are
possible tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on
Thursday and continue into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 450
miles (720 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 951 mb (28.08 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight and
continuing intermittently through late Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:42 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BERMUDA THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 60.6W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 60.6 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a
northwestward motion is expected later tonight and Thursday. The
hurricane is forecast to turn toward the north-northwest by late
Thursday, and toward the north on Friday. On the forecast track,
the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to
Bermuda Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Epsilon is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible
overnight, but a weakening trend is expected to begin later on
Thursday and continue into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight and
continuing intermittently through late Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

The eye of the hurricane remains well-defined this evening,
although the surrounding cloud tops are beginning to warm a bit.
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Epsilon a
little while ago and found peak 700 mb flight level winds of 110
kt, which continues to support an intensity of 100 kt. The central
pressure had fallen slightly since this afternoon, but recent
center fixes suggest that it is leveling off. Some fluctuations in
intensity are possible over the next 12 hours or so due to
inner-core processes. Later on Thursday, a slow weakening trend is
expected to begin as vertical shear over Epsilon should gradually
increase. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement
with the latest model consensus. By 96 hours, the global models
indicate that the strong cyclone will merge with a frontal zone
over the mid-latitudes, and the NHC forecast shows the system as
extratropical by that time.

Epsilon's motion has exhibited what is likely a trochoidal wobble,
which is typical of slow-moving intense hurricanes. This has
resulted in a more westward track during the past 6 hours or so.
The initial motion estimate is 285/7 kt, and is indeed more
westward than previous estimates. However, recent satellite images
indicate little short-term motion. The track model guidance is in
very good agreement that Epsilon will move northwestward and then
north-northwestward on Friday and Friday night. Later, the
cyclone should move north of the subtropical ridge, and turn
northward and northeastward. By days 4-5, the cyclone should
accelerate northeastward under the influence of the mid-latitude
westerlies. The official forecast is right on top of the latest
corrected multi-model consensus guidance, HCCA and is only slightly
west of the previous NHC track through 24 hours. This puts the
closest approach of Epsilon to Bermuda between 00Z and 06Z Friday.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight, and
continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is
forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 29.6N 60.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 30.5N 61.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 31.8N 61.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 33.2N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 34.9N 62.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 36.9N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 39.2N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 46.5N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/0000Z 56.0N 25.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:38 am

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

Epsilon's eye has lost some definition and become cloud filled in
conventional satellite imagery during the past few hours, and an
0604 UTC AMSR2 microwave image showed that the eyewall has been
eroded on the west side. Given the degradation of the cloud pattern
and lowering Dvorak estimates, Epsilon's initial intensity is being
set, likely generously, at 95 kt. A recent UW-CIMSS SATCON
estimate suggests that the intensity could be 10-15 kt lower than
that, but I'd rather we see the aircraft reconnaissance data in a
few hours before reducing it any further.

Epsilon's trochoidal wobbles have continued overnight, but a
longer-term 12-hour motion suggests that the hurricane has turned
toward the northwest (320/6 kt). A mid-tropospheric high over the
central Atlantic will be Epsilon's main driver, causing the
hurricane to turn toward the north-northwest later today and then
toward the north tonight. Shorter-term deviations around this
general trajectory will be possible if the trochoidal oscillations
continue through the day. Epsilon is forecast to turn toward the
northeast and accelerate on Saturday when it becomes embedded
in the mid-latitude westerlies, taking it past southeastern
Newfoundland and into the north Atlantic early next week. The new
NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly clustered
model guidance, and close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.
However, because of the recent wobbles, this new forecast lies
about 40 n mi to the east of the previous forecast during the first
36 hours.

Epsilon's forecast track takes it over a rather homogeneous field
of sea surface temperatures between 25-26 degrees Celsius for the
next 48-60 hours as vertical shear increases somewhat. Gradual
weakening is anticipated during that period, but a more sudden
decrease in ocean temperatures after 60 hours should induce quicker
weakening thereafter. Hurricane and global models both agree on
this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the
IVCN consensus and the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Epsilon is
expected to merge with a frontal zone and become extratropical by
day 4.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda
through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest
approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 30.6N 60.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 36.6N 61.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 38.7N 59.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 41.6N 54.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 50.0N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/0600Z 60.0N 22.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:52 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
800 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT EPSILON HAS
DROPPED IN INTENSITY...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 61.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...385 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 30.6
North, longitude 61.3 West. Epsilon has been wobbling toward the
west recently, but its longer-term motion is toward the northwest
near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected
later today, followed by a northward motion tonight through Friday
night, and an acceleration toward the northeast on Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its
closest approach to, but well to the east of, Bermuda later this
evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on
Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:58 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

...EPSILON HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY BUT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ON BERMUDA THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 61.2W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 61.2 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward
motion tonight through Friday night, and an acceleration toward the
northeast over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to, but well to
the east of, Bermuda later this evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
during the next couple of days, with weakening by early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles
(500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on
Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin




Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

Earlier aircraft data indicate that Epsilon has lost a lot of
strength since yesterday. The maximum flight-level winds were only
79 kt, considerably less than satellite alone would indicate.
However, satellite images show that the eye has recently become
better defined, and the weakening trend has probably stopped. The
initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, a bit higher than recent
aircraft data with the satellite trend reversal and because the
pressure was still about 965 mb on the last pass.

Epsilon's wobbling have continued overnight, but a longer-term
12-hour motion suggests that the hurricane is still moving to the
northwest (325/6 kt). The cyclone should turn north-northwest soon
and northward by tomorrow while it moves through a break in the
central Atlantic ridge. All the guidance is showing the hurricane
accelerating northeastward starting this weekend into early next
week as it becomes entrained in the fast mid-latitude flow. While
the new forecast is a little west of the previous NHC track for the
first day or two, it is still east of the model consensus, with
only cosmetic speed changes at long range.

The forecast intensity could oscillate up and down during the next
couple of days while Epsilon moves over marginally warm waters, and
potentially undergoes an eyewall replacement and/or a conducive
trough interaction. The intensity forecast through 48 hours is a
compromise of these opposing factors, showing little change. At
longer range, while the SSTs cool, a mid-latitude trough is likely
to keep Epsilon's strength mostly intact as the hurricane
eventually contributes to a rather significant non-tropical cyclone
over the far North Atlantic on day 4. The forecast for early next
week is a little higher than the last one based primarily on the
global model fields.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda
through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest
approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 30.9N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 31.9N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 33.4N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 35.1N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 36.9N 60.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 39.6N 57.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 43.0N 50.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 52.5N 30.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 99 guests