WPAC: MOLAVE - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

The last major typhoon that I can remember was Doksuri in September 2017.
Another major landfall was Typhoon Zach way back on November 1st, 1995 (A La Nina Year) - around the same time when Super Typhoon Angela was churning in the Philippine Sea.

Ok Agnes = Celcil = Zack = 115 mph at landfall.

Interesting that they are all in late October or early November. I guess it makes sense tho.

Yep, strongest typhoon landfalls there are low-end cat 3s. Came across an informative thread here about Vietnam typhoon history:
viewtopic.php?t=70606

[styzeb]

Ok Agnes = Celcil = Zack = 115 mph at landfall.

Interesting that they are all in late October or early November. I guess it makes sense tho.

Yep, strongest typhoon landfalls there are low-end cat 3s. Came across an informative thread here about Vietnam typhoon history:
viewtopic.php?t=70606

Lola 93 was 95 kt at landfall, not cat 3 as in that thread.

[mrbagyo]

Lola was indeed 95 knots at landfall based on JTWC 1993 ATCR
Eh, even Doksuri was just a High end Cat 2 at landfall.

[Ed_2001]

I’m actually a quite surprised Vietnam don’t really get higher end typhoons (cat 4-5) in spite of its location in the deep tropics. Philippines landfall and SCE not being super favorable for intense TC’s could be a partial factor but still, even the south coast of China has gotten several 4’s and at least one 5 since 1950 (Rammasun back in 2014).

[Hayabusa]

18Z 90 knots and 100 knots forecast from JTWC and JMA 950 mb peak

TY 2018 (Molave)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 26 October 2020

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 26 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°25' (13.4°)
E116°00' (116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 95 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 27 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E113°30' (113.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 210 km (115 NM)

[LarryWx]

The flooding the last couple of weeks in central VN from a combo of monsoon and TCs has been awful. I've just been reading about it. And now comes another TC and maybe more later!

[Ed_2001]

TY MOLAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR OVER SOUTHERN CHINA.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 100
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, LARGELY DUE TO FAVORABLE SSTS,
WEAKENING VWS (10-15 KTS BY TAU 12) AND IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 12, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
AS VWS INCREASES TO 20-25 KTS BY TAU 24, LEADING TO A SUSTAINED
INTENSITY OF 100 KTS BY TAU 24. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, COOLING
SSTS AND CONTINUED MARGINAL VWS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING
BEFORE LANDFALL AT TAU 36 SOUTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM.

[Hayabusa]

2020OCT26 201000 5.0 965.7 90.0 5.0 5.0 6.7 MW Adjst ON OFF OFF OFF -49.27 -80.98 EYE -99 IR 2.7 13.27 -115.39 FCST HIM-8 33.1 MWinit=4.6/4.1/4.4
2020OCT26 204000 5.0 965.7 90.0 5.0 5.0 6.5 MW Adjst ON OFF OFF OFF -56.34 -80.24 EYE -99 IR 2.7 13.29 -115.28 FCST HIM-8 33.2 MWinit=4.6/4.1/4.4
2020OCT26 210000 5.0 965.7 90.0 5.0 5.0 3.7 MW Adjst ON OFF OFF OFF -60.42 -79.65 UNIFRM N/A 2.7 13.30 -115.20 FCST HIM-8 33.3 MWinit=3.8/4.0/4.4
2020OCT26 214000 5.0 965.7 90.0 5.0 5.0 6.6 MW ON OFF OFF OFF OFF -53.22 -81.37 EYE -99 IR 45.6 13.32 -115.05 FCST HIM-8 33.4
2020OCT26 220000 5.0 965.6 90.0 5.0 5.0 6.9 MW ON OFF OFF OFF OFF -36.34 -81.60 EYE -99 IR 45.6 13.34 -114.97 FCST HIM-8 33.5

[Hayabusa]

[aspen]

There’s a gap in the NE part of the eyewall, but it should close up soon judging by all of that deep convection.

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC 100kts

21W MOLAVE 201027 0000 13.3N 114.7E WPAC 100 958

TY 2018 (Molave)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 27 October 2020

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 27 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°20' (13.3°)
E114°50' (114.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 95 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 280 km (150 NM)

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 270016

A. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE)

B. 26/2330Z

C. 13.47N

D. 114.59E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0 (WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT). ADDED 0.5 FOR BF,
TO YIELD A DT OF 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ELIAS

[1900hurricane]

First WPac major since Haishen.

[euro6208]

20201026 2030 13.4 -115.4 T5.5/5.5 21W MOLAVE
20201026 1430 13.4 -117.1 T4.0/4.5 21W MOLAVE
20201026 0830 13.4 -118.2 T4.5/4.5 21W MOLAVE
20201026 0230 13.3 -119.9 T4.5/4.5 21W MOLAVE


TXPQ21 KNES 262103
TCSWNP

A. 21W (MOLAVE)

B. 26/2030Z

C. 13.4N

D. 115.4E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. A
LG EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE EMBEDDED IN BLACK YIELDS A DT OF 5.5 WITH NO
EYE ADJUSTMENT. NO MET AND PT AS SYSTEM WAS OVERLAND IN LAST 24 HOURS. FT
IS BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[ElectricStorm]

Quite concerned for Vietnam on this one. A storm making a run to become the strongest to hit the country is never a good thing...

[doomhaMwx]

TY 2018 (Molave)
Issued at 03:50 UTC, 27 October 2020

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 27 October>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N13°20' (13.3°)
E113°50' (113.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 440 km (240 NM)
S 330 km (180 NM)

[Ed_2001]

TPPN12 PGTW 270608
A. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE)
B. 27/0530Z
C. 13.48N
D. 113.31E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET AGREES, PT
YIELDS 5.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES

[Ed_2001]

An earlier Microwave scan shows Molave kind of lopsided, likely an result of wind shear impact. But recent satellite presentations has only improved. A jumbled-sized Cat 3 is not what a country devastated by floodings needs, at all. This could be a big deal.

[Ed_2001]

21W MOLAVE 201027 0600 13.5N 113.4E WPAC 110 950

[euro6208]

100 knots landfall into Vietnam.