WPAC: MOLAVE - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Vigorous rainbands of Molave have reached central Vietnam's coast. One long-time WPAC TC tracker says he hasn't seen such rainbands on Vietnam radar before!

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 270906

A. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE)

B. 27/0830Z

C. 13.53N

D. 112.77E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. MG EYE
SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0.
MET AGREES, PT YIELDS 5.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/0538Z 13.35N 113.42E MMHS


RHOADES

[doomhaMwx]

21W MOLAVE 201027 1200 13.9N 112.0E WPAC 105 952

TY 2018 (Molave)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 27 October 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 27 October>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N13°35' (13.6°)
E112°05' (112.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 440 km (240 NM)
S 330 km (180 NM)

[rileydoxsee98]

I kinda had the feeling that Molave would be able to hold off shear enough to reach major intensity and it did just that. Outflow and divergence was strong enough to overcome the shear. Now it will weaken some as shear increases and oceanic heat decreases, but it will remain a strong and dangerous typhoon to the already flood battered Vietnam.

[Ed_2001]

Vietnam is evacuating 1.3 million people. Probably the wise thing to do.
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeas ... oon-molave

[doomhaMwx]

About to make landfall as the sun rises

[Ed_2001]

As expected Molave has weakened a bit and the northern portion of the core looks to be quite eroded. JTWC stills has it as a Cat 3 (100 knots) but wouldn't be surprised if it's no longer a MH at landfall. Regardless I don't think any weakening will make much of a difference now, the storm's still going to dump an massive amount of rain and bring very damaging winds to an already flood-weary area.

(As Per S2K rules take my words with an grain of salt, always consult the official and/or local forecast agencies for necessary information and precautions.)

[doomhaMwx]

21W MOLAVE 201028 0000 14.9N 109.8E WPAC 90 968

TY 2018 (Molave)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 28 October 2020

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 28 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°30' (14.5°)
E109°50' (109.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 165 km (90 NM)
W 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAP
INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE VI EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH
A MICROWAVE FEATURE PRESENT IN A 272114Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS
HEDGED BELOW A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KTS)
BASED ON A 272249Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 95 KTS, AS WELL AS THE WEAKENING TREND IN RECENT ADVANCE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TY MOLAVE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY STRONG (25+ KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY MOLAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE COAST OF CENTRAL
VIETNAM, IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH
(25 KTS+) VWS. BY TAU 12, TY MOLAVE WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF DA
NANG, VIETNAM AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH VWS
AND INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. THIS WEAKENING TREND
WILL RESULT IN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KTS AT TAU 12 THAT WILL FURTHER
DROP TO 30 KTS AT TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS DISSIPATION OVER LAND. BY TAU
36 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND. NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

TY 2018 (Molave)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 28 October 2020

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 28 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°50' (14.8°)
E109°10' (109.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 165 km (90 NM)
W 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/doomhaMwx/status/1321313645268094977

[euro6208]

Final Warning



WTPN32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 15.4N 108.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 108.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.9N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.4N 103.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 107.8E.
28OCT20. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL AND HAS
BEGUN TO DETERIORATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A REMNANT EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI AND
CORROBORATED BY TRIANGULATION OF SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS,
INCLUDING ONE FROM DA NANG AIRPORT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70KTS
IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND
CONSISTENT WITH MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASED (30KT+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THIS, PLUS INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE
THE SYSTEM AS IT DRAGS ACROSS VIETNAM, LAOS, AND INTO THAILAND,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

The west/south eyewall definitely packed a punch based on videos from Quang Ngai.