ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BigB0882]

95L has written the FL Panhandle all over it by mid to late next week. Ridge moving over FL early next week will protect S FL, at least from a direct impact. IMO.

Are you sure? I thought there was some new rule that all storms in the gulf must head to SWLA. All kidding aside, I hope this is not a major event and that it does indeed stay away from SWLA, they need a break.

[NDG]

12z best track position, just a few miles south of the Cayman Islands they have it, but I think is further south and east, at lest the mid level circulation.

AL, 95, 2020102312, , BEST, 0, 190N, 816W, 25, 1008, LO,

[SFLcane]

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95L has written the FL Panhandle all over it by mid to late next week. Ridge moving over FL early next week will protect S FL, at least from a direct impact. IMO.

Hold them shields up SFL...

[SconnieCane]

Epsilon was the wildcard with the models, once it weakened, all of the sudden this starts to develop, initially not having a trackable feature.

Epsilon is still quite a vigorous hurricane with a large circulation envelope surrounding its small CDO (very cool look on satellite throughout), but is starting to move more north and probably having less influence on the Caribbean.

[NDG]

95L has written the FL Panhandle all over it by mid to late next week. Ridge moving over FL early next week will protect S FL, at least from a direct impact. IMO.

Are you sure? I thought there was some new rule that all storms in the gulf must head to SWLA. All kidding aside, I hope this is not a major event and that it does indeed stay away from SWLA, they need a break.

The wild card player is the cut off ULL developing over AZ/NM early next week and how fast it ejects eastward. The Euro shows it slower while the GFS shows it faster. The Euro would favor a southern LA track, I can't imagine being a strong system because of the shear over the northern GOM forecasted to stay in place.

[boca]

Yep South Florida is still in the safe zone even though it’s late October climatology means nothing this year. Northern Gulf coast watch this one be safe.

[NDG]

[ClarCari]

With all the popcorning convection at the latest I’d expect a depression by tonight and storm by tomorrow.

I’m curious if how fast this thing organizes will influence it’s direction and speed. Could make all the difference in terms of land impacts. If it heads NW it could miss alot of Cuba and have time to strengthen before hitting potentially unfavorable conditions in the mid to northern gulf.
If it turns more north and eventually NE, it would hit a chunk of Cuba first but be able to take advantage of lower shear and some pretty warm waters in the Bahamas and U.S. Lower East Coast. (A sort of Sandy/Ophelia 2005 mix in track).

[Loveweather12]

[Tweet][/Tweet]

Yep South Florida is still in the safe zone even though it’s late October climatology means nothing this year. Northern Gulf coast watch this one be safe.

Too early to say that.

[Emmett_Brown]

Grand Cayman reports calm winds, pressure of around 1009 mb and a dew point of 79F at 8am

[SconnieCane]

[url][/url]

Yep South Florida is still in the safe zone even though it’s late October climatology means nothing this year. Northern Gulf coast watch this one be safe.

Too early to say that.

Amazing how fast we went from "SFL is safe because climatology dictates that everything will miss south/east through the Bahamas" to "SFL is safe because it will miss to the west and go to the NGOM."

[kevin]

https://i.imgur.com/xUnbIfO.gif

Wow, so far I've only really looked at models and this is the first time in a while that I've seen sat images of the disturbance and I must say that it looks very healthy. I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a TD/TS faster than the models currently anticipate.

[FireRat]

https://i.imgur.com/xUnbIfO.gif

Damn dude, wow, was not expecting this developing beast when I woke up! I guess the models weren't horribly wrong about a storm taking shape south of Cuba before Oct 24.

95L looks to be rapidly organizing, at least on satellite, I would think a TS may be possible late tonight or tomorrow. The environment is really becoming favorable and opportune for 95L to quickly strengthen. A northern Gulf Coast track might mean a weaker landfall, if this thing heads NE into South FL however, I think it might be stronger and faster. Cuba gets whacked hard either way perhaps

[Aric Dunn]

Wind field is closed.

and there is at least one well defined vort/circ sitting right on top of Grand Cayman and the radar site. Convection firing with that feature as we speak.

Could be another Vort farther south under the weak MLC

Over all this is well on its way to a TD for tomorrow.

[SFLcane]

Wind field is closed.

and there is at least one well defined vort/circ sitting right on top of Grand Cayman and the radar site. Convection firing with that feature as we speak.

Could be another Vort farther south under the weak MLC

Over all this is well on its way to a TD for tomorrow.


https://i.ibb.co/zxQqDLR/ezgif-com-gif-maker-23.gif

Aric, care to comment on potential track?

[FireRat]

[url][/url]

Yep South Florida is still in the safe zone even though it’s late October climatology means nothing this year. Northern Gulf coast watch this one be safe.

Too early to say that.

Amazing how fast we went from "SFL is safe because climatology dictates that everything will miss south/east through the Bahamas" to "SFL is safe because it will miss to the west and go to the NGOM."

If South Florida (Miami-Broward-Palm Beach) were a cat, it would be by now on it's 8th or 9th life...perhaps soon, the luck will end. Hopefully it ends with a weak storm and not a high end event.

[Aric Dunn]

Wind field is closed.

and there is at least one well defined vort/circ sitting right on top of Grand Cayman and the radar site. Convection firing with that feature as we speak.

Could be another Vort farther south under the weak MLC

Over all this is well on its way to a TD for tomorrow.


https://i.ibb.co/zxQqDLR/ezgif-com-gif-maker-23.gif

Aric, care to comment on potential track?

Well now that there is a Circ and lowering pressures this will likely drift wnw before getting picked up.

Anywhere from SW FL to central gulf coast. depending on trough tilt and timing.

[aspen]

With 95L becoming much better organized in such a short time frame, there’s the concern of quicker-than-expected genesis while it’s still in the WCar, and perhaps slower movement during the next 3-4 days like some of the models suggest. This means Zeta might have the chance to become something moderately significant after all.

[SFLcane]

Any new ASCAT?

[Ian2401]

how does the panhandle area look with this storm?