ATL: ZETA - Models

[Nancy Smar]

Only model runs.

[SFLcane]

Icon has a 978mb hurricane near eastern tip of Cuba.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS also has considerably more organized vort in the GOM compared to its past 4 runs:

[Blown Away]

06z ICON...

[Blown Away]

00z Euro... Seems to split the energy sending N half through SFL and S half into the GOM...

[kevin]

06z HMON, TS/cat 1 landfall in Cuba followed by a cat 1 landfall in Florida with a peak as a cat 2 before its 2nd landfall.

[Blown Away]

06z HMON... Cat 2 into SFL in 4-5 days...

[gatorcane]

06Z ICON:

[SouthFLTropics]

06z Para is spinning this up south of Cuba and bringing it north through 60 hours.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Iceresistance]

Woah! I never expected this.

[Iceresistance]

06Z ICON:

https://i.postimg.cc/ZK55C8R6/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh3-120.gif

Very Aggressive with this one, that is a CAT 2 for sure with the 6z ICON model.

[ronjon]

GFS ensembles:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/95L_gefs_latest.png

[kevin]

ICON and now also the GFS ensemble with a significant west shift to the point where a Gulf storm without Cuba interaction (or only minor interaction) might become a serious scenario. But there are still a lot of options possible from the HMON solution directly over central Cuba and into the eastern part of SFL or a Gulf storm with possible landfalls in western SFL or even the Panhandle. Or nothing could form at all. Either way, interesting days ahead.

[ronjon]

06z HWRF...gets low pressure down to 1005 mb or so near Cuba but weakens it as it moves north in the eastern GOM (go figure for once it doesn't overdo intensity).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=95L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020102306&fh=6

[SconnieCane]

HMON seems to take it straight north too quickly. I'd expect it to cross Cuba near the western tip, resulting in much less disruption assuming it's an established cyclone by then.

Meanwhle, EURO appears to want to take it into (where else? ) SW LA.

[northjaxpro]

The west shift is a major concern, if the models keep trending in that direction. This would give 95L more time to organize and feed over very warm ssts. I am growing more concerned if this actually plays out this weekend.

[ronjon]

ICON and now also the GFS ensemble with a significant west shift to the point where a Gulf storm without Cuba interaction (or only minor interaction) might become a serious scenario. But there are still a lot of options possible from the HMON solution directly over central Cuba and into the eastern part of SFL or a Gulf storm with possible landfalls in western SFL or even the Panhandle. Or nothing could form at all. Either way, interesting days ahead.

NHC now moving their orange development area at 50/60% into the SE GOM at 8 am TWO.

[northjaxpro]

06z HWRF...gets low pressure down to 1005 mb or so near Cuba but weakens it as it moves north in the eastern GOM (go figure for once it doesn't overdo intensity).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=95L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020102306&fh=6

I would not buy into this. Surprised the HWRF is being less aggressive about this on this run. I bet this changes as time progresses.

[gatorcane]

Missing frames GFS-P, around peninsula Florida it goes, landfall in the panhandle.

[Iceresistance]

ICON and now also the GFS ensemble with a significant west shift to the point where a Gulf storm without Cuba interaction (or only minor interaction) might become a serious scenario. But there are still a lot of options possible from the HMON solution directly over central Cuba and into the eastern part of SFL or a Gulf storm with possible landfalls in western SFL or even the Panhandle. Or nothing could form at all. Either way, interesting days ahead.

NHC now moving their orange development area at 50/60% into the SE GOM at 8 am TWO.

Yesterday, it was at 10-30, it really improved overnight, literally.