WPAC: ATSANI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 151.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 146
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281527Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE
BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 90W
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 90W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

909 mb
https://i.imgur.com/QGcHDhx.png

Added ECMWF

[euro6208]

Is a large disturbance but EURO and GFS agree on this shrinking and becoming a small TS by the time it passes between Guam and Yap.

[Hayabusa]

Already gale warning, by 3Z JMA should start issuing TC warnings
edit:oops JMA has already started I didn't see the TC webpage

TD
Issued at 01:35 UTC, 29 October 2020

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 29 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N5°20' (5.3°)
E148°40' (148.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 29 October>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N7°25' (7.4°)
E148°00' (148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°10' (9.2°)
E147°05' (147.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 31 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°30' (12.5°)
E142°40' (142.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°05' (15.1°)
E139°05' (139.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 2 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°00' (17.0°)
E135°30' (135.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 650 km (340 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 3 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°30' (17.5°)
E133°10' (133.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 700 km (390 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 850 km (460 NM)

[1900hurricane]

Trying to consolidate roughly near 6ºN, 148.5ºW as of about 23Z.

[Hayabusa]

00Z still Cagayan landfall but a little south

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS peaks at 922mb. Landfalls at 933mb. This one is on Cat 5 watch for me and it hasn't even formed yet...

[euro6208]

0z GFS peaks at 922mb. Landfalls at 933mb. This one is on Cat 5 watch for me and it hasn't even formed yet...

Full resolution peaks at 921 mb.

[Hayabusa]

ECMWF 00Z what's that, is that a garbage run?

[dexterlabio]

ECMWF 00Z what's that, is that a garbage run?

In a shocking turn of event lol

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 290348
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 29/0230Z

C. 5.4N

D. 148.6E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. GREATER THAN 0.2 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET AND THE
PT RE BOTH 1.0 AS WELL. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[Hayabusa]

What's more likely?

[doomhaMwx]

That latest Euro run sure is anticlimactic. My guess here is that Goni and 90W have gotten too close to each other on that run compared to the GFS and previous Euro runs. Too close that the former's outflow ends up shearing 90W.

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 290730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.0N 148.7E TO 10.5N 143.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.2N 148.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
6.2N 148.4E, APPROXIMATELY 478 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 290637Z SSMIS F-16
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A
RAPIDLY TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTH. A 290006Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS TIGHT TROUGHING WITH AN
EXTENSIVE SWATH OF HIGHER (20 TO 30 KNOTS) WINDS TO THE SOUTH BUT
WITH WINDS OF ONLY 5-10 KNOTS ON NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BROAD
CIRCULATION. 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
90W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, QUICKLY INTENSIFYING
TO WARNING THRESHOLD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR LESS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300730Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 290931

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (W OF CHUUK)

B. 29/0900Z

C. 7.47N

D. 148.72E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5.MET AGREES. PT YIELDS 2.0.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


YOUNG

[aspen]

HWRF has a 917 mbar Cat 5 in 102 hours. The simulated IR view is scary.

[Hayabusa]

06Z ECMWF is like 00Z

[dexterlabio]

06Z ECMWF is like 00Z
https://i.imgur.com/rIwxZr9.png

So the Euro is on the much weaker and farther north camp. I wonder what could this model be seeing to yield such solution.

[euro6208]

First band from 90W creeping closer to Guam.

[euro6208]