WPAC: ATSANI - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#161 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:46 pm

:uarrow:

That is a legit typhoon. Looks on satelite ain't everything.

Wow.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#162 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:10 am

Image
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Severe Tropical Storm

#163 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:18 am

Lowest SLP recorded at Basco, Batanes was only 997.9 mb. Synop data from Itbayat to the north does not contain pressure readings, unfortunately.
1 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#164 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:23 am

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#165 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:48 pm

Underestimated.

WDPN32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (ATSANI) WARNING NR
034//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT (55-60NM CORE), CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE ARE NO MICROWAVE IMAGES AVAILABLE,
HOWEVER, RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH AN EYE-
LIKE STRUCTURE AND SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. EIR
IMAGERY HAS YET TO SHOW THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE AND INDICATES A
SLIGHT DEGRADATION OF STRUCTURE SINCE 062000Z. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION IS GOOD. A RECENT (060947Z) SMAP IMAGE
SHOWED MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 51-55 KNOTS AND THIS
DATA ALONG WITH A PGTW DVORAK PATTERN-T ESTIMATE OF 3.5 (55 KNOTS)
SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS. THIS ESTIMATE
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES ARE GENERALLY LOWER AT 2.5 TO 3.0
(35-45 KNOTS) LIKELY DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (26-27 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS TS
23W TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER A WEAKENED MID-LEVEL
STR. AFTER TAU 12, LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEAST
SURGE EVENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A SHARP SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND ACCELERATED TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS WITH COOLER SST
VALUES (24-26C). TS 23W SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 36 WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72 BUT PERHAPS SOONER AS THE ENVIRONMENT
DEGRADES. DESPITE THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN, NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF DISSIPATION. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT.
OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#166 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:36 am

Image
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1928
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Brazoria County Texas

Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#167 Postby underthwx » Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:01 am


Atsani looks fairly healthy, how strong is the storm forecast to be?
0 likes   

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Post-Tropical

#168 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Nov 07, 2020 5:00 pm

It's gone from the 18Z weather maps, it didn't even reach typhoon intensity in contrast to what the models have hyped at the best (Cat 5).
TD
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 7 November 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 7 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N22°00' (22.0°)
E118°00' (118.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1012 hPa
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Post-Tropical

#169 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:16 pm

Final warning


WTPN32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 037
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 22.6N 118.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 118.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.3N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.8N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 118.4E.
07NOV20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (ATSANI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 219 NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS RAPIDLY DECAYING,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 071010Z SSMIS COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FAINT BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHILE A 071241Z ASCAT-A IMAGE
CAPTURES THE INCREASING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE
EVENT IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF A WAVE FEATURE. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T1.5-2.0 (25-30 KTS, PGTW/RJTD) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY HIGH (>35 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WHICH, IN CONJUNCTION WITH COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATES BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests