ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

So unusual for a developing wave in that area to be moving nearly due west this time of year

eastern carrib even in peak season is rare.

this has towers developing and starting wrap to the west ans SW side now.
LLC is quickly trying to develop.

https://i.ibb.co/YccSRh3/ezgif-com-gif-maker-28.gif

This will develop way before reaching the western Caribbean.

HWRF parent has been showing for a few days now.. at the tale end of the ZETA runs.

[aspen]

I don’t like how this is being frequently compared to Mitch, Wilma, and Paloma this early, combined with its rapid organization.

[GCANE]

GFS is showing ideal conditions for supporting a very strong TC when this gets close to Honduras.
TPW, RH, CAPE all at very high levels.
Will be in the middle of a very large anticyclone with big updraft.
They way this is developing and how it would track, could be the strongest TC of the season.
Reminds me of Wilma.

Thought that was gonna happen with Delta but then that unexpected mid-level shear showed up. Once again, all we can say is the potential is there...

I haven't seen an anticyclone depicted like this all season long.
One huge updraft across the entire W Carib
This is not an ARWB with a displaced anticyclone that creates a mid-level or upper-level jet over the CoC.

[CrazyC83]

If this develops early, I see no reason why this can't become something big with that environment. Would a stronger Eta (i.e. a major hurricane) be more or less likely to get buried into Central America?

[SFLcane]

If this develops early, I see no reason why this can't become something big with that environment. Would a stronger Eta (i.e. a major hurricane) be more or less likely to get buried into Central America?

I would certainly think so in terms of early development hence euro ensembles. Gfs slowly coming around to this idea

[CrazyC83]

If this develops early, I see no reason why this can't become something big with that environment. Would a stronger Eta (i.e. a major hurricane) be more or less likely to get buried into Central America?

I would certainly think so in terms of early development hence euro ensembles. Gfs slowly coming around to this idea

Interesting...I thought the stronger runs would be those that kept it offshore and awaiting the trough and the weaker runs send it inland faster, but I wasn't sure if that was the case.

[GCANE]

[Hurricaneman]

GFS is showing ideal conditions for supporting a very strong TC when this gets close to Honduras.
TPW, RH, CAPE all at very high levels.
Will be in the middle of a very large anticyclone with big updraft.
They way this is developing and how it would track, could be the strongest TC of the season.
Reminds me of Wilma.

Thought that was gonna happen with Delta but then that unexpected mid-level shear showed up. Once again, all we can say is the potential is there...

I haven't seen an anticyclone depicted like this all season long.
One huge updraft across the entire W Carib
This is not an ARWB with a displaced anticyclone that creates a mid-level or upper-level jet over the CoC.

https://i.imgur.com/WsLhdZO.png

This is scary potential, no one needs a cat 4 or 5 in central America, Cuba, Yucatan or Florida\Bahamas so this will have to be watched as the potential is higher than any hurricane this year based on conditions modeled

[CrazyC83]

Thought that was gonna happen with Delta but then that unexpected mid-level shear showed up. Once again, all we can say is the potential is there...

I haven't seen an anticyclone depicted like this all season long.
One huge updraft across the entire W Carib
This is not an ARWB with a displaced anticyclone that creates a mid-level or upper-level jet over the CoC.

https://i.imgur.com/WsLhdZO.png

This is scary potential, no one needs a cat 4 or 5 in central America, Cuba, Yucatan or Florida\Bahamas so this will have to be watched as the potential is higher than any hurricane this year based on conditions modeled

The only analog I can think of is the 1932 Santa Cruz del Sur hurricane...

[Kazmit]

It seems like the only inhibitor we can foresee right now will be the potential for land interaction with CA, but even that is starting to look less likely

[SFLcane]

Thought that was gonna happen with Delta but then that unexpected mid-level shear showed up. Once again, all we can say is the potential is there...

I haven't seen an anticyclone depicted like this all season long.
One huge updraft across the entire W Carib
This is not an ARWB with a displaced anticyclone that creates a mid-level or upper-level jet over the CoC.

https://i.imgur.com/WsLhdZO.png

This is scary potential, no one needs a cat 4 or 5 in central America, Cuba, Yucatan or Florida\Bahamas so this will have to be watched as the potential is higher than any hurricane this year based on conditions modeled

+1

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1322001616967520257

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1322001616967520257

It needs to slow down, looks like it's pacing to the point where it will have some trouble trying to consolidate, unless the gif is sped up.

[Blown Away]

Pretty much every 18z Global model run has a storm moving into CA in the 96–120 hr timeframe regardless of strength, some with weak TS and others with hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1322001616967520257

That looks and sounds awfully familiar ...lol

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1322001616967520257

That looks and sounds awfully familiar ...lol

Yeah it's some user who uses the "eek" emoji a lot when he posts noodle runs. Pretty smart guy.

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1322001616967520257

That looks and sounds awfully familiar ...lol

Ah... It’s pretty clear a low level circulation is trying to develop but to me it might be still in the mid levels. Only a matter of time

[ClarCari]

https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1322001616967520257

It needs to slow down, looks like it's pacing to the point where it will have some trouble trying to consolidate, unless the gif is sped up.

I think it’s sped up or an illusion. Normal radar shows it’s not moving slow but not too fast to inhibit development clearly

[SFLcane]

Holy SHIP guidance...

Very bullish first run

[CrazyC83]

I'd bump the probabilities up to 60/80 at the next update personally. Clearly developing but need persistence. Probably should consider setting up Recon for Saturday.