ATL: ETA - Models

[Spacecoast]

Running out of fuel?

(0z GFS dissipates 36hr later @ N Yucatan)

0z HMON takes Euro type track, toward Big Ben @96hr, (faster, & stronger than 12z Euro)


0z HWRF same as 18z run... spinning, (and weakening), around 27N, SW of Tampa

[Hurricane Alexis]

0z Euro closest approach to SFL at 30 hours with the bulk of the weather NE as expected.

[Cat5James]

0z Euro closest approach to SFL at 30 hours with the bulk of the weather NE as expected.

All the other models go south so the Euro decides to go North and hug So Fla... love it

[Hurricane Alexis]

0z Euro closest approach to SFL at 30 hours with the bulk of the weather NE as expected.

All the other models go south so the Euro decides to go North and hug So Fla... love it

0z euro and gfs agreeing on lower/middle keys with the same idea of most of the weather to be north and east. Like the nhc said, TS winds way north of the center.

[robbielyn]

06z GFS heads towards keys at 992mb heads south gets to 1004mb then heads so towards western tip of cuba starts to strengthen as it heads ne towards sarasota at 980mb. Sarasota says: “not here u don’t!” stays just offshore then pops back out west takes long way around north fizzles out by the time it hits hernando/citrus. This thing got me dizzy lol.

[robbielyn]

HRWF takes it across southern keys at 992 mb and goes way around west landfalls in cedar key fl at 968 mb

[ronjon]

HRWF takes it across southern keys at 992 mb and goes way around west landfalls in cedar key fl at 968 mb

Yeah scary thought for us on the nature coast. Yikes!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=29L&pkg=ref&runtime=2020110806&fh=108

[NDG]

06z Euro and a close up look at 06z GFS.

[caneman]

HRWF takes it across southern keys at 992 mb and goes way around west landfalls in cedar key fl at 968 mb

Yeah scary thought for us on the nature coast. Yikes!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=29L&pkg=ref&runtime=2020110806&fh=108

That type angle always piles up water in the Tampa Bay region as well

[Dean4Storms]

06z ECM looking at wind gust swath it shows gusts to around 60mph from about W. Palm Southward right along the SE FL Coast and some over 70mph in the Keys. Later as the Storm intensifies and moves northward in the Gulf it shows wind gusts just over 100mph from well out West of Naples to West of Tampa area before it stops at 90hrs time frame.

[Dean4Storms]

Big NE shift in the 06z ECM center position at 00z Thursday (90hrs) compared to 00z Thursday in the 00z run. Much bigger threat to Tampa area sitting there at 978mb.

[caneman]

Big NE shift in the 06z ECM center position at 00z Thursday (90hrs) compared to 00z Thursday in the 00z run. Much bigger threat to Tampa area sitting there at 978mb.

Hey Dean,
Do you have a link to the full run?

[caneman]

Big NE shift in the 06z ECM center position at 00z Thursday (90hrs) compared to 00z Thursday in the 00z run. Much bigger threat to Tampa area sitting there at 978mb.

Hey Dean,
Do you have a link to the full run?

Edit: never mind see it now

[Dean4Storms]

Big NE shift in the 06z ECM center position at 00z Thursday (90hrs) compared to 00z Thursday in the 00z run. Much bigger threat to Tampa area sitting there at 978mb.

Hey Dean,
Do you have a link to the full run?

Edit: never mind see it now

Sorry, I get mine from the pay site on Weatherbell.com so I can't really link it and it do anyone any good who isn't paying for it there.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

06z HWRF was especially concerning for people along the west-central coast of Florida.

[ronjon]

HRWF takes it across southern keys at 992 mb and goes way around west landfalls in cedar key fl at 968 mb

Yeah scary thought for us on the nature coast. Yikes!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=29L&pkg=ref&runtime=2020110806&fh=108

That type angle always piles up water in the Tampa Bay region as well

Yes would be pretty terrible from Tampa Bay northward. Not liking latest model trends of significant strengthening in the SE GOM and then heading north-northeast toward Florida west coast as Euro, GFS, and HWRF now showing.

[Gums]

Salute!

NWS forecasts show a front coming thru per normal fall pattern, and that puppy will help we Baja Alabama folks as well as The Big Easy.

If we look at history, we can see Betsy in 65 and Elena in 85 as potential models for this newbie storm. So I would not rule out a loop-da-loop in the eastern Gulf like Elena did.
=====================================
The "shield" must not pay attention to history, heh heh. Go see where most storms came ashore the last 100 years. But there might be a glimmer of factual atmospheric and climate phenomena at play some years. Think "Bermuda high", for one. Then La Nina/El Nino, aka ENSO, have a good track record for keeping storms away from the Gulf or vice versa. Something to do with upper level shear, and I didn't study that way back in school.

Gums sends...

[aspen]

12z GFS doesn’t get beyond a strong TS due to dry air getting into the west side of the storm starting late Tuesday. This is probably due to it having Eta make landfall in southern Florida, slightly eroding its moisture bubble and making dry air entrainment more likely. Let’s see if the HWRF will also be less aggressive in its 12z run.

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFS @ 18hrs has Eta on it's closest approach to SFL it's shown since the 06z run yesterday. Has Eta crossing through the Upper Keys, rather than the Lower Keys, or just missing (directly) the Keys entirely to the South, as today's 00z GFS showed. Not a big shift, but would impact how far north Hurricane gusts can spread. Also appears just a tad slower as it passes FL, but not enough to make a big difference.

[NDG]

I guess because the latest 12z GFS shows Eta getting disrupted by dry air later today thus not strengthening much is why it is now persistent on it making landfall in the Upper Keys two runs in a row.