ATL: ETA - Models

[TheStormExpert]

I still don't think this goes into CA, deep level steering is weak at this stage.

Why not? All the models have this going into CA either in Nicaragua, Honduras, or at the border. Hard to go against that.

Though I will say the 12z Euro has a low emerging north of Honduras in the NW Caribbean in 7-8 days along with the GFS.

[cp79]

How far inland does it track on the HWRF? What is the movement around the time of landfall? The Miskito Coast is quite flat, similar to the Everglades.

The HWRF has a WNW track until midday Monday, when it slows a bit and takes a dive to the SW. Close to landfall, it's tracking nearly parallel to the CA coast, giving it more time over water.

If that’s the case, then this could easily make a brief landfall near Cabo Gracias a Dios and then move back into the Gulf of Honduras, threatening Cuba/FL.

Technically, given how marshy the Miskito Coast is, this system could easily recover from a brief rendezvous with Cabo Gracias a Dios. Mountains are inland.

There’s about a 5% chance this affects Cuba and a 0.0001% chance it affects Fla. Just not happening. This is purely a CA system, and if it somehow breaks apart like the Euro says it may, it will get kicked ENE giving it that slight chance of hitting Cuba. But this is not a US concern. Prayers to those in CA, though.

[Loveweather12]

The HWRF has a WNW track until midday Monday, when it slows a bit and takes a dive to the SW. Close to landfall, it's tracking nearly parallel to the CA coast, giving it more time over water.

If that’s the case, then this could easily make a brief landfall near Cabo Gracias a Dios and then move back into the Gulf of Honduras, threatening Cuba/FL.


How are you so sure?
Technically, given how marshy the Miskito Coast is, this system could easily recover from a brief rendezvous with Cabo Gracias a Dios. Mountains are inland.

There’s about a 5% chance this affects Cuba and a 0.0001% chance it affects Fla. Just not happening. This is purely a CA system, and if it somehow breaks apart like the Euro says it may, it will get kicked ENE giving it that slight chance of hitting Cuba. But this is not a US concern. Prayers to those in CA, though.

[CourierPR]

There’s about a 5% chance this affects Cuba and a 0.0001% chance it affects Fla. Just not happening. This is purely a CA system, and if it somehow breaks apart like the Euro says it may, it will get kicked ENE giving it that slight chance of hitting Cuba. But this is not a US concern. Prayers to those in CA, though.[/quote]


And you received your meteorological degree from what university?

[NDG]

A track across C.A. into the EPAC is still not guaranteed.

[AutoPenalti]

I still don't think this goes into CA, deep level steering is weak at this stage.

Why not? All the models have this going into CA either in Nicaragua, Honduras, or at the border. Hard to go against that.

Though I will say the 12z Euro has a low emerging north of Honduras in the NW Caribbean in 7-8 days along with the GFS.

You don't account for beta drift right?

[Spacecoast]

There are 3 GEFS members (AP02,AP21, & AP18) shown headng towards Cuba.
Euro ens not shown. (white is consensus)

[cp79]

There’s about a 5% chance this affects Cuba and a 0.0001% chance it affects Fla. Just not happening. This is purely a CA system, and if it somehow breaks apart like the Euro says it may, it will get kicked ENE giving it that slight chance of hitting Cuba. But this is not a US concern. Prayers to those in CA, though.

And you received your meteorological degree from what university?[/quote]

US Naval Academy

[TheStormExpert]

I still don't think this goes into CA, deep level steering is weak at this stage.

Why not? All the models have this going into CA either in Nicaragua, Honduras, or at the border. Hard to go against that.

Though I will say the 12z Euro has a low emerging north of Honduras in the NW Caribbean in 7-8 days along with the GFS.

You don't account for beta drift right?

Sorry, but what is beta drift?

[Iceresistance]

Intensity models

[TheStormExpert]

The more I look at it this setup kind of reminds me of Dorian last year. Trucks west towards CA before POTENTIALLY the ridge breaks down (still questioning this considering the +NAO and climatology) and a sharp 90° north turn commences.

[NDG]

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like quite a handful 12z EPS ensembles bury it into CA before re-emerging in the East Pacific. How’s this compare to 00z EPS?

[Shell Mound]

A track across C.A. into the EPAC is still not guaranteed.

https://i.imgur.com/RSlmWKX.png

Note that those models depict a significant slowdown just as the system makes landfall on the Miskito Coast. This may well not track far inland at all.

[Deshaunrob17]

:uarrow: Looks like quite a handful 12z EPS ensembles bury it into CA before re-emerging in the East Pacific. How’s this compare to 00z EPS?

I could be wrong but I think more members did the CA crossover this morning and yesterday

[CourierPR]

Why not? All the models have this going into CA either in Nicaragua, Honduras, or at the border. Hard to go against that.

Though I will say the 12z Euro has a low emerging north of Honduras in the NW Caribbean in 7-8 days along with the GFS.

You don't account for beta drift right?

Sorry, but what is beta drift?

Beta drift generally causes tropical cyclones to move poleward and westward relative to the motion they would have if the background potential vorticity field were unperturbed by the storms. This drift speed is generally around 1–2 m s−1.

[MJGarrison]

Wouldn’t the global models account for Beta Drift already?


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[CourierPR]

There’s about a 5% chance this affects Cuba and a 0.0001% chance it affects Fla. Just not happening. This is purely a CA system, and if it somehow breaks apart like the Euro says it may, it will get kicked ENE giving it that slight chance of hitting Cuba. But this is not a US concern. Prayers to those in CA, though.

And you received your meteorological degree from what university?

US Naval Academy[/quote]

I stand corrected. I wear support stockings.

[Spacecoast]

:uarrow: Looks like quite a handful 12z EPS ensembles bury it into CA before re-emerging in the East Pacific. How’s this compare to 00z EPS?

I could be wrong but I think more members did the CA crossover this morning and yesterday

It looks like slightly less crossovers today
0z EPS:

12z EPS:

[TheStormExpert]

You don't account for beta drift right?

Sorry, but what is beta drift?

Beta drift generally causes tropical cyclones to move poleward and westward relative to the motion they would have if the background potential vorticity field were unperturbed by the storms. This drift speed is generally around 1–2 m s−1.

So basically a stall or meander?