EPAC: ODALYS - Post-Tropical

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Nancy Smar
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EPAC: ODALYS - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:44 am

97E INVEST 201102 1200 12.0N 111.5W EPAC 20 1009
97E INVEST 201102 1200 12.0N 111.5W EPAC 20 1009
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:35 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located over 700 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
remain favorable for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days as the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward, well offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#3 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:45 pm

Oh hello
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:47 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly organize along a broad
area of low pressure located over 700 miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward well offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#5 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:20 am

Looking pretty good:
Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#6 Postby bob rulz » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:44 am

A late-season EPAC system in a La Nina season? Wonder if it can manage to pull anything substantial off.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:47 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite imagery indicates showers and thunderstorms associated
with a broad area of low pressure located over 700 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
continue to become better organized. If this development trend
continues, a tropical depression is likely to form later today or
tonight as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#8 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:23 pm

Now up to 100/100, and the NHC will initiate advisories sometime this afternoon/tonight.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:37 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite imagery indicates that low pressure centered about 700
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula has become significantly better organized today, with
increased shower and thunderstorm activity noted near its low-level
center. If current trends continue, advisories will be initiated
later this afternoon or tonight. This system is expected to move
generally northwestward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Re: EPAC: ODALYS - Tropical Storm

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:41 pm

Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
200 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020

The low pressure area well south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula has become significantly better
organized today. A curved band of deep convection is noted to the
northwest of the low-level center, and a second weaker band is
located to its southeast. Satellite-derived wind data indicate the
low-level center is still somewhat broad, but it appears to have
enough definition to justify starting advisories as a tropical
cyclone. Recent ASCAT-B data show numerous 30+ kt wind barbs, with
a couple barbs peaking at 33-34 kt in the eastern semicircle of the
cyclone. Considering known under-sampling issues with this data
source, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, which is consistent
with a T2.5 subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB. Thus, the
system has become a tropical storm, and advisories are initiated on
Tropical Storm Odalys.

Weak to moderate vertical wind shear and sufficient oceanic heat
content may support modest strengthening during the next 12 h or so.
By 24-36 h, strong southwesterly deep-layer shear associated with an
approaching shortwave trough to the northwest, along with intrusions
of drier mid-level air, will induce a steady and perhaps rapid
weakening trend. The system is forecast to weaken to a depression by
48 h and a remnant low by 96 h, but this could occur even sooner if
the stronger shear values noted in the SHIPS guidance are realized.
The GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests the system could be
devoid of deep convection as early as day 3 of the forecast period.

The storm’s estimated motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/11 kt. A
slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple
of days as Odalys is steered northwestward by a low- to mid-level
ridge centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. Then, the
cyclone should gradually slow down and turn westward as this ridge
weakens due to the aforementioned shortwave trough. By 72 h, the
storm will be steered southwestward by another low- to mid-level
ridge building to its northwest. The track models are in decent
agreement, and the official NHC track forecast lies near the center
of the guidance envelope closest to the track consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 14.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 15.2N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 16.8N 120.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 17.9N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 18.5N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 18.5N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 16.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Re: EPAC: ODALYS - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:42 pm

Probably the last storm of the season in the EPAC
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Re: EPAC: ODALYS - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:55 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Probably the last storm of the season in the EPAC

Oh say it ain't so - we need Polo to respond to the Atlantic's Marco from earlier this year.
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Re: EPAC: ODALYS - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:58 pm

Oh boy, more EPac name-wasting slop.
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Re: EPAC: ODALYS - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:00 pm

'Odalys' is the weirdest EPAC name from the NHC I've ever heard.
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Re: EPAC: ODALYS - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:26 pm

NHC still hasn't updated the graphic on the EPAC page. It still shows a red X instead of the TS symbol.
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Re: EPAC: ODALYS - Tropical Storm

#16 Postby ClarCari » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:32 pm

Reminds me, is the NHC track map at the top just a placeholder until this board updates the old map system??
Because the EPAC deserves to be on here too! :lol:
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Re: EPAC: ODALYS - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby Nuno » Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:38 pm

Iceresistance wrote:'Odalys' is the weirdest EPAC name from the NHC I've ever heard.


Its my grandmother's name. Common enough at least in Cuban circles. "Oh-Dahl-Lys"
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Re: EPAC: ODALYS - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:03 pm

galaxy401 wrote:NHC still hasn't updated the graphic on the EPAC page. It still shows a red X instead of the TS symbol.


They do now


:darrow:
Last edited by Iceresistance on Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: ODALYS - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:03 pm

galaxy401 wrote:NHC still hasn't updated the graphic on the EPAC page. It still shows a red X instead of the TS symbol.


Now they do!
Image
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: EPAC: ODALYS - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:49 am

Odalys: 50 mph & 1000 MB

Ciculation has been decoupled from the convection because of the strong wind shear & dry air

Expect Odalys to become a remnant low within a few days.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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