#95 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:58 pm
Rapid intensification likely.
WDPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH CURVED RAIN
BANDS CONTINUING TO WRAP TIGHTER INTO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). FURTHERMORE, AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEGUN TO APPEAR OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED UPON THE BANDING FEATURES IN THE MSI LOOP AS WELL AS IN THE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 102203Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. MULTIPLE
AGENCIES REPORT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THESE AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON A 102145Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 67KTS AND AN INCREASING TREND NOTED IN ADJUSTED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM OBJECTIVE DVORAK METHODS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW
(05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA REMAIN
WARM AND FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AS THE STR BUILDS IN THE NEAR TERM, TY 25W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES THROUGH
TAU 12. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE DURING THIS
TIME. ADDITIONALLY, ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE BEFORE LANDFALL.
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
PROVINCE OF BULACAN ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON. AFTERWARD,
LAND INTERACTION WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 65KTS BY TAU 24.
AS TY VAMCO EXITS INTO THE WARM SCS IT WILL THEN RE-CONSOLIDATE
AND STRENGTHEN TO 75KTS THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO GENERALLY
FAVORABLE VWS AND SST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AND THUS LEND HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY VAMCO WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR IS WEAKENED BY AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. DURING THIS
TIME, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO INCREASING
VWS AND COOLING SST TO 55 KTS BY TAU 96. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM
WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL VIETNAM WHEREUPON
THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30KTS BY
TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD INCREASES FROM 345NM SPREAD AT
TAU 96 TO OVER 580NM AT TAU 120. THIS INCREASING SPREAD IN
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL POOR CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FINAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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