ATL: THETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: THETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:46 pm

Invest 97L designates a non-tropical system currently over the open Atlantic roughly between Bermuda and the Canary Islands. As of the 18z tropical weather outlook on November 8, it has a 10% chance of tropical or subtropical formation within the next two days, and a 30% chance of tropical or subtropical formation within the next five, according to the National Hurricane Center. The system is currently positioned within a broad trough, and should track generally towards the east-northeast, and may threaten the Canary Islands and the Iberian Peninsula Friday through the weekend. There is broad model support for the development of this system; if it does develop into a named system operationally, it will be the storm that tops the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season's named storm record, assuming it does so before the tropical wave entering the Caribbean.

Source: https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D
AL, 97, 2020110718, , BEST, 0, 277N, 500W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2020110800, , BEST, 0, 281N, 490W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2020110806, , BEST, 0, 283N, 482W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2020110812, , BEST, 0, 284N, 473W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 250, 70, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS065, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 065,
AL, 97, 2020110818, , BEST, 0, 285N, 470W, 25, 1010, EX, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 250, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 065, SPAWNINVEST, al732020 to al972020,


246 KB. Source: The National Hurricane Center
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Last edited by TheAustinMan on Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L

#2 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:49 pm

On and on it goes. It never sleeps!

Anyways this is looking pretty good and should develop into yet another tropical cyclones. We're probably going to blow through the greek list.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L

#3 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:51 pm

Ah my personal favorite invest number :lol: Hoping for Pablo 2.0. Please develop 97L. I WANT THE RECORD
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L

#4 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:55 pm

So what's the protocol when we run out of Greek letters?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L

#5 Postby toad strangler » Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:02 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:So what's the protocol when we run out of Greek letters?


Should be like Hurricane "Give Us a Break Already" or Tropical Storm "Really?"
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#6 Postby underthwx » Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:08 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:Invest 97L designates a non-tropical system currently over the open Atlantic roughly between Bermuda and the Canary Islands. As of the 18z tropical weather outlook on November 8, it has a 10% chance of tropical or subtropical formation within the next two days, and a 30% chance of tropical or subtropical formation within the next five, according to the National Hurricane Center. The system is currently positioned within a broad trough, and should track generally towards the east-northeast, and may threaten the Canary Islands and the Iberian Peninsula Friday through the weekend. There is broad model support for the development of this system; if it does develop into a named system operationally, it will be the storm that tops the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season's named storm record, assuming it does so before the tropical wave entering the Caribbean.

Source: https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D
AL, 97, 2020110718, , BEST, 0, 277N, 500W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2020110800, , BEST, 0, 281N, 490W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2020110806, , BEST, 0, 283N, 482W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2020110812, , BEST, 0, 284N, 473W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 250, 70, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS065, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 065,
AL, 97, 2020110818, , BEST, 0, 285N, 470W, 25, 1010, EX, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 250, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 065, SPAWNINVEST, al732020 to al972020,


246 KB. Source: The National Hurricane Center
https://i.imgur.com/cGv648m.png

Looks like the potential for breaking the record is there, if I had to choose between the area in the Carribean, or 97L developing further, I would have to go with 97L, because it is an invest, with potential for development
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:07 pm

A low pressure system is located several hundred miles southwest of
the Azores. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the
system is beginning to show some signs of organization. This low
could develop further over the next several days, and a tropical or
subtropical storm could develop by the end of the week while this
system moves eastward or east-northeastward over the northeastern
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#8 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:
A low pressure system is located several hundred miles southwest of
the Azores. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the
system is beginning to show some signs of organization. This low
could develop further over the next several days, and a tropical or
subtropical storm could develop by the end of the week while this
system moves eastward or east-northeastward over the northeastern
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Up to orange. The record is in sight!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#9 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:
A low pressure system is located several hundred miles southwest of
the Azores. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the
system is beginning to show some signs of organization. This low
could develop further over the next several days, and a tropical or
subtropical storm could develop by the end of the week while this
system moves eastward or east-northeastward over the northeastern
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.



That was unexpected. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#10 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:17 pm

Just stop! This is madness! :shocked!:

EDIT: 97L is currently at 30 mph & 1010 MB

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#11 Postby toad strangler » Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:20 pm

GOnna be tough for this one to hit Louisiana :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#12 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:28 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Just stop! This is madness! :shocked!:

EDIT: 97L is currently at 30 mph & 1010 MB

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

Oh hi September. Back a bit early, aren’t you?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#13 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:14 pm

aspen wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Just stop! This is madness! :shocked!:

EDIT: 97L is currently at 30 mph & 1010 MB

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

Oh hi September. Back a bit early, aren’t you?

I never thought that there is ANOTHER Caribbean system later this week
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#14 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:00 am

Image

Image

40/60 now

Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system
located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores is showing
some signs of organization. This system will likely gradually
acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics this week, and a
tropical or subtropical storm could develop within a few days while
this system moves eastward or east-northeastward over the
northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medum...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L

#15 Postby al78 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:26 am

Sciencerocks wrote:On and on it goes. It never sleeps!
We're probably going to blow through the greek list.


You think we are going to get 18 storms (including this one) in the next seven and a half weeks?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#16 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:25 am

97L is now SS Theta
Last edited by Iceresistance on Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:47 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#18 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:11 am




Also note Future 98L in the Caribbean, that might be named later this week, later than 97L


EDIT: I found the link for Future 98L :P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#19 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:47 am

97L Might be Subtropical Storm Theta any moment now! 40 mph 1005MB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:48 am

AL, 97, 2020110912, , BEST, 0, 289N, 438W, 35, 1005, EX, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 70, 1014, 250, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M
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