ATL: THETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

AL, 97, 2020110912, , BEST, 0, 289N, 438W, 35, 1005, EX, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 70, 1014, 250, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

Does that mean that 97L is still TD strength?

[Extratropical94]

AL, 97, 2020110912, , BEST, 0, 289N, 438W, 35, 1005, EX, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 70, 1014, 250, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

Does that mean that 97L is still TD strength?

It is at TS strength already, so once the NHC forecasters decide that it has gained enough subtropical characteristics to be classified a subtropical cyclone, they will go straight to Subtropical Storm Theta instead of Subtropical Depression Thirty. I think they will up the chances to something like 70/80 at 1pm.

[aspen]

The HWRF doesn’t show this really disconnecting from the broader non-tropical setup until tomorrow afternoon. It looks like it’ll struggle a bit with shear and a patch of dry air to the S/SE until it finally gets its own moisture pocket. This might end up a lot like Delta ‘05.

[aspen]

AL, 97, 2020110912, , BEST, 0, 289N, 438W, 35, 1005, EX, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 70, 1014, 250, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

Does that mean that 97L is still TD strength?

It is at TS strength already, so once the NHC forecasters decide that it has gained enough subtropical characteristics to be classified a subtropical cyclone, they will go straight to Subtropical Storm Theta instead of Subtropical Depression Thirty. I think they will up the chances to something like 70/80 at 1pm.

You were spot on.

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores has
increased and become better organized during the past several hours.
Satellite-derived wind data earlier this morning suggested that the
system had not yet become distinct from a frontal boundary in the
area, however, it will likely become non-frontal soon. The satellite
data also indicated that the system is already producing gale-force
winds. Additional development is expected, and a tropical or
subtropical storm will likely form during the next day or two while
the system moves eastward or east-northeastward over the
northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Iceresistance]

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores has
increased and become better organized during the past several hours.
Satellite-derived wind data earlier this morning suggested that the
system had not yet become distinct from a frontal boundary in the
area, however, it will likely become non-frontal soon. The satellite
data also indicated that the system is already producing gale-force
winds. Additional development is expected, and a tropical or
subtropical storm will likely form during the next day or two while
the system moves eastward or east-northeastward over the
northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Theta is coming

[Iceresistance]

Dvorak has this at T1.5 Subtropical

[CrazyC83]

At least this is a more "classic" November system. Still...we can't catch a break.

[aspen]

At least this is a more "classic" November system. Still...we can't catch a break.

98L/Iota will likely be our return to 2020 weirdness with yet another Caribbean system. 97L/Theta will give us a bit of a break.

[Iceresistance]

97L is almost non-frontal, expect SS or TS Theta as early as tonight.

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a gale-force low
pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the
Azores has become a little more concentrated near the center and
it appears to be becoming more distinct from the frontal boundary
located to the northeast of the system. If these trends continue, a
subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form tonight or Tuesday
while the system moves east or east-northeast over the northeastern
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[aspen]

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a gale-force low
pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the
Azores has become a little more concentrated near the center and
it appears to be becoming more distinct from the frontal boundary
located to the northeast of the system. If these trends continue, a
subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form tonight or Tuesday
while the system moves east or east-northeast over the northeastern
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Oh wow, we could see Theta within 12 hours.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think we will see Theta tonight.

[cycloneye]

Hello Theta? Up to 45 kts.

AL, 97, 2020111000, , BEST, 0, 288N, 410W, 45, 1000, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 70, 100, 100, 1014, 230, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

[cycloneye]

This is why best track goes up to 45 kts.

[aspen]

This is why best track goes up to 45 kts.

https://i.imgur.com/2x3nFAh.jpg

That is getting very, very close to being designated as a TC. Soon it’ll be fully disconnected from the non-tropical setup.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 97, 2020111000, , BEST, 0, 288N, 410W, 45, 1000, SS,

[ElectricStorm]

AL, 97, 2020111000, , BEST, 0, 288N, 410W, 45, 1000, SS,

Ah the SS... the record is here folks!

[Iceresistance]

Hello Theta


cyclonicwx is also saying that 97L is Subtropical

[Iceresistance]

AL, 97, 2020111000, , BEST, 0, 288N, 410W, 45, 1000, SS,

Ah the SS... the record is here folks!

2005 . . . has . . . . fallen