ATL: THETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#101 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:01 pm

aspen wrote:As I anticipated, Theta has slightly restrenghtened. It’s back up to 55 kt and convection, while shallow, isn’t totally concentrated to one quadrant of the storm. Still a slim chance of this becoming a hurricane tomorrow before it starts weakening for good.

Another win for the HWRF
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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#102 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:14 pm

The NHC mentions a couple of interesting points:
1.) the 55 kt estimate might be a little conservative
2.) shear will actually be dropping within the next 48 hours, and won’t be picking up until afterwards
3.) Theta will be in an area of unstable air capable of supporting moderate convection

All of these points suggest the HWRF will continue to be right, and Theta will intensify some more into a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#103 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:54 pm

The 3 PM advisory

Theta:

65 mph

990 MB
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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#104 Postby us89 » Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:09 pm

This storm is the forgotten stepchild of the month. Normally, a strongish TS moving towards Africa in November might generate a bit more discussion...but not when you have a TS hitting Florida and a potential major down the road in the Caribbean...
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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#105 Postby bob rulz » Fri Nov 13, 2020 3:15 pm

I'm sure a lot of people are exhausted by this season lol. Luckily I don't live in an area that can be hit by hurricanes, so I haven't had the spend the entire season on my toes wondering when the next threat is coming my way. I just track them because it's interesting to me.

That said, Theta is almost looking as healthy as ever right now, but I know it won't last much longer.
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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#106 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Nov 13, 2020 3:24 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#107 Postby us89 » Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:10 pm

bob rulz wrote:I'm sure a lot of people are exhausted by this season lol. Luckily I don't live in an area that can be hit by hurricanes, so I haven't had the spend the entire season on my toes wondering when the next threat is coming my way. I just track them because it's interesting to me.


I actually used to live in Salt Lake. Sure, we never got any direct tropical systems, but usually around half of the monsoon surges in late summer were related to an EPac system in some way. Sometimes it was just a meteorological curiosity, but sometimes the name stuck around especially if it caused a lot of flood impacts. Norbert 2014 was a good example of that.
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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#108 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:17 pm

us89 wrote:
bob rulz wrote:I'm sure a lot of people are exhausted by this season lol. Luckily I don't live in an area that can be hit by hurricanes, so I haven't had the spend the entire season on my toes wondering when the next threat is coming my way. I just track them because it's interesting to me.


I actually used to live in Salt Lake. Sure, we never got any direct tropical systems, but usually around half of the monsoon surges in late summer were related to an EPac system in some way. Sometimes it was just a meteorological curiosity, but sometimes the name stuck around especially if it caused a lot of flood impacts. Norbert 2014 was a good example of that.

I wasn't around yet in 1986 but Hurricane Paine's remnants caused one of the most significant floods we've had in NE Oklahoma, until it was matched by the spring 2019 flood. Bill 2015 also caused major flooding around here also. So even though we don't get the storms directly, they can still have destructive impacts up here
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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#109 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:39 pm

I thought we'd have a bunch of storms like Theta this fall; we kinda got robbed of probably 2-3 more named storms with the relentless progressive pattern across the mid-latitudes. 2005 had stuff parked for long enough it could transition and this year it gets swept clean every few days. Kinda unfortunate since those are the neat storms to watch that don't really affect anyone while tropical.
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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#110 Postby bob rulz » Sat Nov 14, 2020 6:12 am

us89 wrote:
bob rulz wrote:I'm sure a lot of people are exhausted by this season lol. Luckily I don't live in an area that can be hit by hurricanes, so I haven't had the spend the entire season on my toes wondering when the next threat is coming my way. I just track them because it's interesting to me.


I actually used to live in Salt Lake. Sure, we never got any direct tropical systems, but usually around half of the monsoon surges in late summer were related to an EPac system in some way. Sometimes it was just a meteorological curiosity, but sometimes the name stuck around especially if it caused a lot of flood impacts. Norbert 2014 was a good example of that.


That's true. I'm pretty sure there's posts from that time period of me being excited that we're getting moisture lol. I'm always looking for EPAC systems that are oriented towards the southwestern U.S. Another notable one is Linda in 2015, which caused some of the worst flooding ever seen in southern Utah (tons of flooding deaths in slot canyons, and I remember several cars from a polygamist community got washed off the road). I also know that the wettest month on record in Salt Lake - September 1982 - was related to a perfectly oriented moisture surge from the remnants of Hurricane Olivia (also one of the storms to make it closest to Los Angeles in modern times). Usually in Salt Lake though it's just providing a nice shot of moisture in a time when it's usually really dry.

Good to see someone who's familiar with my home city! Salt Lake is beautiful.

Anyway sorry to derail the topic with something totally unrelated. Theta is looking like it's on its way out. it's definitely wandering into an area that isn't traversed by tropical systems all that often. Theta had a good run as a November subtropical system...
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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#111 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Nov 14, 2020 8:24 pm

Another record down the drain for 2020

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1327716914307555329


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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#112 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 14, 2020 9:09 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Another record down the drain for 2020

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1327716914307555329?s=21

How many more will fall?
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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#113 Postby ClarCari » Sat Nov 14, 2020 9:43 pm

Theta is still pushing per NHC. These sheared storms this season have still been veryyy resilient out here.
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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#114 Postby Hammy » Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:00 am

Has anything other than Delta in 2005 made it this close to the Canary Islands?
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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#115 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:26 am

ClarCari wrote:Theta is still pushing per NHC. These sheared storms this season have still been veryyy resilient out here.

And Omar
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Re: ATL: THETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#116 Postby HenkL » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:49 am

Hammy wrote:Has anything other than Delta in 2005 made it this close to the Canary Islands?

Perhaps the so called San Florencio Storm in 1826 (Wikipedia article).
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Re: ATL: THETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#117 Postby Owasso » Sun Nov 15, 2020 10:41 am

From the discussion

Theta has run out of theta-e.


:lol:
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Re: ATL: THETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#118 Postby Ryxn » Sun Nov 15, 2020 12:29 pm

This was SO close to being a harmless out-to-sea hurricane. Sigh, maybe late November or December will feature one. If a hurricane, this storm would have made Hurricane Iota the 7th hurricane in a row (assuming Gamma's upgrade) which would be very unprecedented for October onward.
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Re: ATL: THETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#119 Postby storminabox » Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:27 am

A more typical November cyclone
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Re: ATL: THETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#120 Postby KWT » Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:55 am

storminabox wrote:A more typical November cyclone


I'm not sure I'd call a TS getting to around 20W in mid NOVEMBER all that normal or typical, indeed very much a record breaker in its own right with how far east it got so late in the season.

It may not have been the brute of a Eta/Iota, but its every bit as freakish as those two are for different reasons!
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